voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
voting behaviour theories
Valence issues:
- governing competency (contrast between thatcher and Callaghan)
- Leadership
- campaign strategy
Rational choice:
- voters make a decision based on their best interests
- what they seek to gain from policies on offer
- reading manifestos
Issue voting:
- voters decide on a single issue e.g. Brexit
1979 case study - context, campaign and valence
Context:
- UK economy not in a good state
- Labour gov had small majority with losses of MPs due to crises
- public opinion turned against labour meaning Thatcher could make large gains and win a 44 seat majority in 1979
- opinion polls showed the vote to be close which could have boosted turnout (abstentions from the working class and union leaders_
campaign:
- first election with extensive use of media
- press conferences for midday news, walkabouts for early evening news and major speeches for evening news
- Callaghan ‘won’ the campaign but didn’t win overall
Valence:
- thought that Conservatives could best control trade union power
- Cons seen as more economically competent
- Thatcher was previously an unpopular education secretary
- people were reluctant to vote for a woman PM
1979 case study - Issues, Manifesto/policies and social factors
Issues:
- less people describing themselves as ‘working class’ (growing middle class)
- trade unions and the winter of discontent
Manifesto/policies
- conservatives pledged to curb trade union power and proposed for economic reform
- other policies such as ‘right to buy’ were less important
Social factors:
- regional - all areas swung towards the cons but mainly S England
- Class - Cons won AB and C1, Lost C2 and DE but gained 11 and 9% in these groups
- gender - men evenly split, women slight lean to conservatives
- age - cons won all groups except 18-24 - labour support declined most in 35-54 group
1997 case study - context, campaign and Valence
Context:
- labour party reformed under Blair forming new labour
- cons worst defeat since 1906 and labour’s biggest victory
- labour majority of 179
- 71% turnout - first signs of long-term decline
Campaign:
- lasted 6 weeks
- Major tried to expose labour divisions
- both toured marginal seats
- labour’s campaign was strict and well organised - use of media sound bites (‘education, education, education’)
- cons distracted by sleaze and corruption
- cons - anti-labour campaign but labour pro-Blair campaign
- campaigns did little to change votes
Valence:
- cons had been in power for 18 years - tired and disunited over Europe
- cons economic incompetence due to recession in early 90’s
- Labour - no economic record to defend and desirable third way policies
- Major was seen as boring and weak
1997 case study - Issues, manifesto/policies
Issues:
- smaller working class population - had to focus on middle classes
- NHS and education in a state of decline
- cons divided over the Maastricht treaty and had reputation for sleaze
Manifesto/policies:
- Cons focused on economic recovery - issue of Europe divided party, especially due to Referendum party
- labour focused on 5 pledges - cut school class sizes, introduce fast-track punishments for young offenders, cut NHS waiting lists, get 250,000 unemployed under-25s into work and to cut VAT on heating and not raise income tax
Social factors:
- Region - Labour gained in all and stopped the trend of N-Labour S-Cons
- class - Labour gained across all but Cons won AB vote
- Gender - closed gender gap as men and women equally likely to vote labour
- Age - Cons still won over 65’s but labour won all other age groups
- Ethnicity - labour beat the cons among white and BAME voters
2019 case study - context, campaign and valence
Context:
- both parties seen divisions grow
- labour’s vote collapsed across the country allowing the cons to win largest majority since 1987 (80 seats)
- turnout dropped to 67.3% form 69% in 2017 due to it not being very close and it was a December election
Campaign:
- more subdued due to it being a December election and Johnson was absent for most of it
- Johnson let Brexit persuade voters and kept away from the headlines
Corbyn had a good campaign
- social media attack ads were more prevalent in this campaign
Valence:
- Public frustrated with all parties due to the inability to move forward with Brexit
- Johnson had a much clearer message over Brexit
- Anti-Semitism distracted the Labour party and the formation of new parties such as, the Brexit party and independent group for change didn’t help
- the right-wing only had one party to choose from as the Brexit party didn’t contest Conservative constituencies but the left had multiple
- Johnson relied on his reputation and media profile from him being the London mayor
Social factors influencing voting behaviour in 2019
- benefits or not
- Whether they were employed
- location
- gender
- Age
other factors influencing voting behaviour in 2019
- manifesto pledges
- Brexit
- Leadership
- Media interviews
- Anti-Semitism
- regional differences in voting have lessened
influence of Age
Evidence:
- as age increases, more people vote conservatives
- 25% of 20 year olds and 60% of 60 year olds
Reasons:
- younger people tend to be more progressive
- as people acquire more assets there is a tendency to focus on more issues affecting them
Counter:
- younger people more likely to go to Uni and are more educated, so it could be down to this instead
Influence of ethnicity
Evidence:
- bias towards labour form those who are from a BAME background
- in 1997 - 70% voted labour and in 2019 - 64%
Reasons:
- although all parties claim to be racially tolerant, their actions suggest otherwise (Windrush scandal)
- compared with labour who have proven themselves to be racially tolerant by introducing anti-discrimination bills
- BAME people more likely to have backgrounds in major cities working in industrial roles
Counter:
- Labour support is waning
Influence of Region:
Evidence:
- S England excluding London is more Conservative
- in 2017, 54% of people in the South voted Conservatives and in 2019 - 46%
- North is more Labour - 2017 - 53%
- Scotland votes for SNP and Wales votes for Labour
Reasons:
- Labour has roots in wales
- Tories have dominated political culture in the South
Counter:
- Red-wall switched
- not down to geographical but socio-economic factors
influence of education
Evidence:
- Higher education - those who held a degree - 47% voted labour or lib dems in 2017 compared to 36% voting cons
- 50% of school leavers went to Uni
- those who only have GCSE’s (62%) and A-Levels are more likely to vote right-wing
Reasons:
- the poorest in society are not as poor as before so no need for radical policies
Counter:
- Cons were the most popular party across all educational backgrounds in 2019
- still 8% ahead of Labour in those who hold a degree
Influence of party loyalty
- People closely align themselves with a particular party based on their class and even when they would progress to another as a result of social mobility they stay loyal to the same party
- meant that parties have a certain number of core voters
Counter:
- since 1970s there has been a rise in partisan dealignment - number of core voters are shrinking
- increasing numbers of DE and AB voters are not voting labour or conservatives respectively
- seen in 2017 and 2019 where people switched allegiances over Brexit
Influence of gender
Evidence:
- women are more likely to vote Labour
- in 2019, 35% of women voted labour compared to 31% of Men
Reasons:
- changing roles of women in society
- more women in workforce - support for workers’ rights
- women more interested in health and education whilst men are more interested in foreign intervention, nuclear power and weapons
Counter:
- gender gap is quite small
- age may have more influence, Gender is too broad of a factor
influence of class
Evidence:
- traditionally middle and upper class are more likely to vote conservative - 1997 - 59%
- the DE classes mainly voted for Labour 2017 - 59%
Reasons:
- seen as strong part of your identity
- - both parties developed, strong and deep roots within communities so there was a culture of voting for either party
- cons were seen to govern in the interests of the middle and upper classes whilst Labour were governing to help the working class and the poor
Counter:
- class divide is being broken - only 39% of DE voters voted Labour in 2019 and only 45% of AB voters voted for cons
- outdated classification
- green party has very even support across all classes
- class dealignment
