Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
Two types of factors affecting votes - explain
Social/ long-run factors - Demographic and long-run trends about who votes for what party.
Political context/ short-run factors - Short-run issues that cause swing voters to go one way or the other.
5 big types of social factors affecting voting
Class
Region
Age
Education
Ethnicity
What is class/ partisan dealignment? How does it relate to voting? + example
Since 1979, been less of a correlation between traditional class-based voting. Partisan dealignment is the same but for a number of long-run factors. Shows a shift toward voting based on more short-run factors. For example, Jeremy Corbyn grew support from class AB voters, whilst Theresa May/ Johnson took advantage of Brexit to grow support amongst class DE voters
How has traditional regional voting been challenged recently? Give 2 examples
Red Wall - Massive shift from 2017 to 2019 - Lab lost 60 seats and many in North England ‘heartlands’
Scotland - Dominated by Lib Dems and Labour until 2015 - effectively wiped out
and only Conservatives being able to fight back
How does age affect voting? Parties and turnout?
Older vote tory - more assets plus wealth
Younger vote Labour - less assets so more affected by environment/ social justice etc.
Above 55 have consistently 70%+ turnout while 18-24 hover around 50%
Is age a fixed determiner of voting? 1997 election?
No i.e. Thatcher was popular with young people and Blair won 5% more vote in 97 amongst 65+
Most ethnically diverse constituency in the country? What does their vote show about ethnicity? 2 reasons for this trend?
East Ham - 76% voted for Labour in 2019. BAME has always voted this way. Many are more empathetic for immigrants and recent Windrush scandal/ small boats policy shows why.
Much more likely to be lower class/ live in cities
How do trends in education votes show growing dealignment? What % of those with GCSE or lower voted Tory in 2019
Around 60% of those with GCSE or lower voted Tory in 2019, and those with degrees are more likely to vote Labour. Fits in with recent Red to Blue Wall and class dealignment
What is valence voting? Who does it swing? How did it help Thatcher?
When voters vote based on the perceived competence of parties. If they are happy with governing competency, they are unlikely to vote for the opposition. Affects… swing voters.
Winter of discontent meant it was easy to point out in advertisements that “Labour isn’t working”
3 examples of strong leaders inspiring voters (1987, 1997, 2010)
3 examples of weak leaders deterring voters (1983, 1992, 2010)
Thatcher - “the Iron Lady”. Ideologically driven and unflappable - had established herself as competent and so won despite Mandelson’s highly prasied campaign
1997 - Blair was charismatic and had the right ideological stances for the time - especially against the unenthusiastic William Hague
2010 - Cameron convincingly focused in on Labour’s debt pile and was matched by a strong leader in Nick Clegg e.g. the ‘Yello Wave’ post debate
1983 - Foot looked old and was established as a left-wing intellectual. Unappealing especially given Thatcher’s governing competency
1992 - Kinnock’s triumphant style at the Sheffield and rambling “We’re all right, we’re all right” was deterring - especially given it was televised
2010 - Brown was seen as economically incompetent and uncharismatics + tainted by Iraq
Which party leader had the worst approval ratings in 2015? Why didn’t this matter
Nigel Farage - still took massive amount of vote due to effective rheotric
How did John Major’s 1992 and Corbyn’s 2017 campaigns seem similar
People politics - engaged with voters more and directly interacted more to bring the campaign to them
Two reasons May’s election was uninspiring - leadership and manifesto…
Ran an insulated campaign and didn’t show up for TV debated
“dementia tax” was unpopular manifesto policy - she wasn’t there to defend it
3 examples of newspapers being influential? Counter them?
It was the Sun wot won it - 1992. Claimed to have defeated Kinnock, he was very far ahead in opinion polls… or was it the Sheffield rally and Major’s lowkey but human campaign
1997 - It was the Sun that swung it. Especially telling given shift to Labour… Blair was incredibly popular anyway
2010 - The Sun shifted back to Tory support… and Cameron won… But Brown was bound to lose
The Sun wants to sell its papers first and foremost – surely it follows public opinion
When was the first TV debate? How did it help the Lib Dems… or did it?
2010 - attracted 10 million viewers and Clegg’s strong performance (Brown and Cameron saying “I agree with Nick”) saw a boost in opinion polls and a ‘yellow wave’ was predicted.
However, the yellow wave soon fell and didn’t fully materialise.
How much did newspaper circulation fall from 1990 to now?
Around 77%
Who did TV debates benefit in 2015? Did it actually help?
“Year of the small parties” - Helped massive UKIP rise due to Farage’s rhetoric - Sturgeon also came across very favourably according to polls.
However, the effect of this is limited under FPTP as Farage evidences
