Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
Reasons for class dealignment
CHANGING CLASS SYSTEM manual workforce shrunk
CROSS CLASS LOCATION classes less distinct.
EMBOURGEOISEMENT growth of middle class
SECTORAL CLEAVAGES depends more so on if you work in public or private sector
Effects of class dealignment
POLITICAL PLURALISM more parties voted for
RISE IN MINOR PARTIES (e.g. UKIP got 12.6% of votes in 2015)
VOLATILITY OF ELECTIONS hard to predict
FLOATING VOTERS
Class dealignment in 2017
Conservative won Working class seats (Mansfield - Labour since 1923) Labour won middle class seats (Kensington - Conservative since 1974)
Class voting trends 2019
Conservative
ABC1 = 43%
C2DE = 48%
Why don’t younger people vote Conservative?
- less responsibility
- connotation of tories
- not property owning
- radical
Age voting trends 2019
18-24
21% conservative
70+
67% conservative
Gender voting trends 2019
Men 46% conservative, 31% labour Women 44% conservative, 35% labour NO SIGNIFICANCE
Ethnicity voting trends 2019
White
48% Cons
BAME
20% Cons
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Significance of short term voting factors
VALENCE very strong ECONOMIC strong RATIONAL CHOICE moderate ISSUE moderate TACTICAL moderate PARTY LEADER weak PRESS weak OPINION POLLS weak
What is valence?
Are you happy with the government’s performance.
2017 - people didn’t vote labour despite liking abolishing tuition fees because they doubted ability to deliver economic prosperity
What is rational choice?
A combination of valence and issue voting
What is economic voting?
Holding the government accountable for economic situation.
2010- gov lost power over 2008 crisis
1983- thatcher reelected due to strong economy with 144 seat majority
Party leader voting
1997 - charismatic blair won a 179 seat majority
2015 - miliband was weak, he lost
Changing nature of media?
DECLINE OF TRADITIONAL MEDIA fewer newspapers social media
INCONSISTENCY OF IMPARTIALITY only TV and radio has to be impartial
ACCESSING INFORMATION ONLINE false?
What is the post truth era?
- people accept an argument based on emotion
- influence on EU referendum
Influence of newspapers?
- reinforces existing views
- dealignment and floating voters increased vote share
- influence over politicians who alter policies to please them
- > 1992: Its the Sun Wot Won It for Major
- > 74% Daily Mail readers vote Conservative
How could newspapers (in theory) influence elections?
SETTING AGENDA e.g. 2001 focus on public services helped labour win
IMAGE OF LEADER Sun Wot Won It
IMAGE OF PARTY Brexit 2019
How could TV and radio influence?
- neutrality bound by law
- BBC accused of left wing bias
- TV debates overseen by Electoral Commission
- > despite Boris not talking to Andrew Neil before election: still won
- > 2010: Clegg performed well in debate, but lost 5 seats
Influence of social media?
- used to communicate
- targeted in marginal seats
- Momentum, 2017-19, used it to gain membership (has 64,000 followers, Instagram)
- > Conservative almost £2m on social media ads in 2019
Problem with social media
- unregulated
- any group can use it
- echo chamber
- targeted to young voters
- not popular with old voters
What are opinion polls?
- used since 1940s
- influential
- ask about opinions of leaders, parties and election results
Problems with opinion polls?
- paid too much attention
- sometimes inaccurate
- voters adjust vote on it
- Shy Tories
- Conservatives used them to win election to avoid a hung parliament in 2015
Should opinion polls be banned?
\+influence way people vore \+misleading -freedom of expression -can be conducted privately -guide politicians -polls can be conducted abroad
