Voting Behaviour and Media Affect

Question 1

Name 5 contextual factors

Answer 1

1) Governing Record
2) The Party Leader
3) The Election Campaign
4) Party Manifestos
5) Issue Voting

Question 2

Key examples of governing record determining the outcome of elections?

Answer 2

• 1959, Conservative Poster depicted happy family home with the quote “Life’s better with the Conservatives – don’t let Labour ruin it”. Shows how the valence influence of competency can be utilised. Macmillan won a 100-seat majority
• 1983, Thatcher’s government brought inflation down despite high unemployment rates - fulfilling their manifesto. Her leadership during the Falklands war and the unity of her cabinet reinforced the government’s reputation.
• 1979, Callaghan’s inability to stop the dramatic escalation of strikes during the winter of discontent and his attempts to reassure the country were misquoted in the press as “crisis, what crisis?”. Swing voters there went for Thatcher

Question 3

Importance of Governing record as a contextual factor for winning elections?

Answer 3

• Valence judgements are very important
• If swing voters are assured in the government, they will win the election
• Often vote against government as they agree with the opposition (they’ll govern more effectively or as a protest vote).
• Has the government done a good job?

Question 4

Key Examples of the Party leader determining the result of the election?

Answer 4

• 1983, Thatcher’s reputation for strong and focused leadership contrasted with Foot’s left-wing intellectualism
• 2001, Tony Blair dominated with charisma and personality - thus little reason to vote for a weak and divided opposition under Hague
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• 1979, Thatcher was less popular than Callaghan but focused the election on the government’s failure to conform growing power of trade unionism
• 2010, Cameron succeeded in focusing the general election on the huge increase in national debt under Gordon Brown. Labour’s weak point

Question 5

Importance of the party leader in determining the outcome of an election?

Answer 5

• Main face of the party - determine how it is associated
• E.g., Johnson vs Corbyn in 2019 - people voted for Johnson and against Jeremy
• Elections have become more presidential
• In 1979, people didn’t like Thatcher, but liked her policies so voted for her. Nowadays, liking the party leader is much more important

Question 6

Key Examples of the Election campaign determining the result of an election?

Answer 6

• 1997, New Labour ran a very disciplined campaign, to ensure there were no ‘gaffes’
• 2010, Gordon Brown was recorded insulting a member of the public after accidentally leaving his mic on
• 2017, May refused to take part in TV debates and came across as wooden in interviews
• 2019, Johnson sought to avoid spontaneous interviews due to the risk of ‘gaffes’ (hiding in fridge incident) but did debate Jeremy as he was more charismatic

Question 7

How important is the election campaign in determining the outcome of an election?

Answer 7

• Parties spend huge amounts of money on campaigns
• E.g., Advertising, photos of leader (ensure they are seen in a good light), stage managed publicity events
• Sometimes leaders take part in TV interviews but otherwise not if these risk damaging the leader. A poor campaign can damage a party’s chances

Question 8

Key examples of party manifestos decided the outcome of a general election

Answer 8

• 1997, New Labour abandoned many traditional values (nationalisation, tax rises, withdrawal from NATO and nuclear disarmament) in order to get elected. Their 5 pledges were based on focus group feedback to ensure they had broad support
• 2017, Tory party included a policy to fund social care through taxing homeowners for their own care (Dementia Tax)
• 2019, Labour manifesto included many traditional socialist policies such as the commitment to nationalisation of energy and internet which was seen as unrealistic and unaffordable. Also, included a second referendum commitment which alienated a lot of their Northern Vote

Question 9

How important are party manifestos in determining the outcome of elections?

Answer 9

• Party policies are published in manifestos before the election outlining what they will do if they get into power
• Parties with credible manifestos are much more likely to achieve electoral success - especially if voters believe it will address the main issues facing the country in that election.
• Equally, unrealistic manifestos (2019 Labour) make voters believe a party is not credible and the government will not succeed

Question 10

Key examples of Issue voting determining the outcome of a general election?

Answer 10

• 2019, Parliament was gridlocked on delivering BREXIT so Boris called a general election.
• Traditional Labour votes abandoned the party in the north of England (manifesto committed to second referendum) and voted conservative
• Tories promised to implement BREXIT whereas Labour tried to appeal to the southern voters, which worked, but lost their ‘red wall’