Voting Behaviour Flashcards
Why do parties run campaigns?
Pinch votes from other parties.
Persuade the voting voter.
Get your core voter out.
For campaigns importance:
Neil kinnock vs John major- 1992
2015- cons employed Linton Crosby and spent £100,000 on social media.
Alistair Campbell- new labour
“Things can only get better”
Long term factors importance:
Identification and class Gender Age Ethnicity Past performance
Partisan dealignment
When an electorate abandons the party that previously has been attached or loyal to. - Clarke et al suggests influence is decreasing- Cons 1964- 45%
1979- 21%
2001- 13%
What did Pulzer say?
Class is the basis of British politics; all else is embellishment and detail -1967
How has the working class experienced class dealignment?
Embourgeoisement. During the thatcher era - right to buy
Decade of dealignment (1983) Crewe
What is rational choice based on?
Rational choice decisions
Manifesto reviewed
Self interest
Leader image
Example of bad leader image
Michael foot (1983) Scruffy- not well presented Bad first impressions Old Donkey jacket- breakfast down shirt
What is the study of voting behaviour
Psephology
Dominant ideology theory?
Dunleavy and husbands- 1985
What did sanders say?
1996 - economy is the key issue, in particular how it affects the voter
Examples of headlines?
Kinnock light bulb- 1992
It’s the sun wot won it
Sun backs Blair- 1997
It’s a Tory- 2015
What is a floating voter?
Electorate with no political allegiance, will vote for all parties
Short term issues?
Events leading up to election
Party image
Leaders debate
What is the opposite of a safe seat?
Marginal constituency.
Two contrasting leaders debate?
2010- Cleggmania
2015- Miliband fell off stage
Rational choice?
Past performance
Policies- manifesto reviewed
Self interest
Valence issues
Evidence for importance of Valance issues?
“It’s the economy stupid”
“Educationx3”
“NHSx3”
Sanders 1996- Low interest rate and inflation - Gordon brown quote
Describe post war voting?
1945-70
People remained loyal
Elections won and lost by floating voters in marginals
Swing was uniform across the UK
Geographic proof of class being important?
North South divide
Counter urbanisation eroded labour support
Proof for leader image important?
Kinnock vs Major
Foot vs Thatcher
DC “heir to Blair”
Campaigns not important
1987
we won the campaign 10-nill and lost the election 11-nill- Roy hattersley
Tory campaign 2015
Lynton Crosby Targeted lib dem seats Micro targeted women in 30-40's Used SNP as a wedge tactic 100,000 a month on social media Got rid of Gove - politically toxic
Labour poor campaign
Edstone mocked by media
Fell of stage at leaders debate
Bacon sandwich
35% strategy a failure
Affect of opinion polls?
Started 1938
Bandwagon affect
Boomerang affect
Different media theories?
Hypodermic needle theory
- people accept what they are told
Reinforcement theory
- people have pre-held views and only expose themselves to the media they agree with
Points for by-elections
Unpredictable Bloody nose John major- lost 26 consecutive Weather vane Between 2010 and 2015 lib den lost deposit 7 times
Local election points?
Low turnout- less than 29% in 1998
FPTP encourages low turnout
Devolved election points?
Turnout lower than general but higher than Westminster
AMS system used- smaller parties gain seats, less tactical voting
Nationalism parties do well
Tory and the elderly?
“Senescent conservatism” butler and stokes 1960
Labour and the young?
1997- Labour won all age categories bar 65+
2015- only 18-24 and 24-35 - both low turnout
Ethnicity and voting behaviour?
Sagar 2000- 1997 review
89% black vote labour
81% Asian vote labour
Further proof of dominant ideology?
“Rupert Murdoch is effectively a member of blairs cabinet” Lance price
Who came up with rational choice?
Heimmelwiet et al
Class in the 2015 general election?
C2 vote not won back by labour equal on 32%
Rise of UKIP in Labour heartlands
Partisan dealignment in 2015?
Floating voters- 20% undecided on Election Day
Labour lost 28% to all parties gained some back to churn
Loss of lib dem heartland
Rise of SNP
Dominant ideology in 2015 election?
Cameron refuses 3 way leader debate
“It’s a Tory” and wedge tactic
Miliband monstered
Rational choice in 2015?
Tori seen as more economically competent following- Byrne “ there’s no money left”
NHS x3
Referendum promised on EU
