Voting behaviour Flashcards
2020
Joe Biden beat incumbent Trump with 51.3% of the vote and a 66.6 turnout.
2016
Trump beat Hillary Clinton with 46.1% of the vote compared to her 48.2% with an overall turnout of 57.3.
2012
Incumbent Obama beat Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the vote compared to 47.2% with a turnout of 58.6%.
2008
John McCain (45.7%) lost to Barack Obama with his 52.9% of the vote. Overall turnout was 61.6%.
2004
Republican incumbent George W Bush gained 50.7% of the vote compared to the 48.3% held by John Kerry and overall turnout was 60.1%.
2000
Republican George W Bush gained 47.9% of vote, beating Al Gore’s 48.4% with the overall turnout being 54.2%.
1996
Democrat Incumbent Bill Clinton gained 49.2% of the vote compared to 40.7% held by Bob Dole and 8.4% by independent Ross Perot who gained 8.4%. Overall turnout was shockingly low at 51.7%.
1992
Democrat Bill Clinton, with 43% of the vote, beat Republican incumbent George H. W. Bush and incumbent Ross Perot who held 18.9% of cast vote.
1988
Republican George H. W. Bush with 53.4% of the vote beat Michael Dukakis with the overall vote share of 52.8%.
What is socialisation
Process through individuals gaining views and values from family and friends and communities
Long term factors
Model suggesting that voters vote is influenced by their class and social position
What is partisan alignment
When a group consistently backs a party
What is party identification
When voters identify with a particular party
How strong is party identification in America
very strong and America has a polarised landscape
What is partisan realignment
Shift of groups supporting one party to another
can be triggered by a significant crisis or social change
How did the Great Depression trigger a political realignment
led to significant realignment with parties having different solutions. The new deal coalition after the Great Depression saw workers, religious groups, ethnic minorities all support the democrat candidate Roosevelt
Why did the new deal coalition break down and why was their another realignment in the 60/70’s
Harry Truman- ended segregation, promoted equal rights
this led to the break up of the southern vote
the democrats proceeded to become more liberal
since the 1980’s which groups have alligned with the republican party
white, elderly, upper middle class, protestants voters
since the 1980’s which groups have alligned with the democrat party
non white, younger, religious minorities, lower income voters
why does the media now often talk about red and blue states
divided public in states can consistently support a single candidate such as Texas supporting the republicans
political alignment of white voters
Republican
89% support for republican mitt Romney
‘states rights’ southern position
political alignment of African American voters
Consistently support democrat candidates
recent democrat candidates have been African Americans such as Kamala Harris and Barak Obama
political alignment of Hispanic Voters
this is a widely diverse group
consistant 80% suport for democrat candidates
long tradition by Democrats of being representative of minority ethnic rights
political alignment of Jewish Voters
clearest alignement
90% voted for Bill Clinton
political alignment of catholic voters
more divided group
Catholic president’s- Kennedy and Biden
political alignment of Protestant voters
evangelical voters are more conservative
other religious elements less
much more diverse religious views
What is the difference between younger and older voters
Younger voters hold more liberal positions
Youth vote is also more diverse
18-29 58% are white
over 30 76% are white
what might the age gap have to do with generational differences
in 1992 youth vote spilt and the youth vote split again in 2024
infelcne of politics during transformative years
what differences are here between male and female differences
women are more likely to vote democrat and in favour of abortion
Is martial status more strongly aligned to gender
married voters are more likely to be white and religious
more likely to vote republican
What differences are there between how different income groups vote
obama has greatest support with low incomes
reasonable to assume differing income demographics do hold different views and values
what might explain why income groups are not more clearly aligned to a particular political party
Poor voters were in favour of tump in 24 and so were the uber wealthy
the economy isn’t the only factor which voters vote on. Many voters belong to a particular minority which may influence them to a greater extent
What parts of America is most aligned to a political party
the west coast and north east are democrat candidates
much of the ‘Deep South’
and mid west is the battleground
How differently to rural and urban voters vote in US elections
Obama had greatest support in cities
trump did well in rural areas
What is the rational choice model of voting behaviour
voters evaluate using rational choice and short term factors including the costs and benefits of voting wither way. This is a self interested choice
How many debates are held and how do they work
Different forms such as town hall, podium debate
in 24 there was 2 but only 1 between final candidates
there has been more historically. 2008.
What lessons were taken from the TV debates between Nixon and Kennedy
TV views felt that Kennedy had won but radio listeners felt that Nixon had won.
Nixon looked unwell on night.
How much impact did ford’s debtate have on the 1976 election
frod made an error suggesting that wrong fact on soviet position making him seem weaker
how much impact did Regans performance have in the 1980’s debate
Regan was able to show chatacheter which highlighted the importance of sound bites
Regan went on to win
Was was unique about the 1992 debates?
Ross Perot (indépendant) was given the opportunity to debate
Why might TV debates have been signifiant in 2000
Close election result and so short term factors like debate can be seen to be impactful on the outcome of the election
How much did Romney’s strong performance in the first TV debate help in in 2012?
He was prepares and seen to be more energised
Romneys debate performance declined
Why do the debates only have a limited impact on the election considering that they are watched by millions of Americans
occur late in the campaign,
voters will have been more decided
only u/d voters can be inflecned
could present an opportunity to increase support in supporters to boost turnout
1964 attack add
‘Daisy’
The one with the girl picking petals from a daisy with a counting down to a nuclear explosion
2 types of campaign adds
- positive adds
- Attack adds
How were the campaign adds used in 2012
Romney ram adds sihhestomg that Omabma had shipped car manufacturing jobs overseas however car manufacturers came together and contested this
What problems did Romney experience in appealing to voters in 2012
Romney moved to right in primaries so struggled to campaign as a centrist
Mitt Romney was shown to only pay 14% tax seen as out of tough milestone
bet 10,000 during debate
Why did Obama have a head start in buying tv adds in 2012
Mitt Romney couldn’t access party funds until nomination acceptance at the party’s national nomination conference.
2012 October surprise
Hurricane sandy allowed Obama to be presidential and this took focus of the Romney campaign
2012 September surprise
Romney spoke at a 50,000 USD a plate dinner where he was seen to take republican voters for advantage and was seen as out of touch and arrogant
How did the economy inflence the 2012 economy
60% of voters said most important factor was the economy
Just before election UP started to go below 8%
Obama had supported jobs in Detroit
Obama campaign team
- highly successful GOTV
- lots of analytics
- targeted voters
What is the VAP and VEP
Voting Age Population
Voting Eligible Population (no prisoners and non citizens)
Why does separation of powers make voting more challenging
Leats to blame game
divided government (Obama second term after the mid terms. Rep congress and Democrat president). Therefore it is difficult to make accountable decision
Why do US voters feel their vote has little impact
lack of choice
safe seats and divisions
presidential election has lots of electors
Why might some Americans have voter fatigue
lots of elections.
4 year president
2 year congress
state, local legislate and exec
Voting is on Tuesday- how might this affect turnout
those working between 7am-8pm cannot access voting time
How have registration rules been used in the past to block certain people from voting
Literacy tests or residency requirements or tests before voting
in 1960 only 29% ob black voters cast vote
What efforts have been made to increase voter registration
voting rights act 1965
24th Amendment
Why does registration remain difficult in some states
Some states have high pre election registration permitters of 25-30 days
Some states allow registration on the day
What is differential turnout
The term used to describe the differing turnout across levels of abstention and marginal groups
How has turnout changes in recent presidential election
African American turnout has consistently increased the asian vote has as well.
Education levels- highest level of education vote for the democrast s
How does the electorate vary in mid term elections? how does this help the republicans
Lower turnout in mid terms as seen as less significant.
This helps the republicans as its democrat demographics which decrease the most
What are GOTV campaigns
door knocking and events to increase turnout
2012 obama campaign tools
Narwall which compiled lots of data and emails to create target campaign events
How is the US population changing
minority groups are increasing in represertnaion
% of white voters is decreasing
% of evangelical voters is decreasing
How might electoral changes shift the future of the US electoral landscape
Parties will have to further and more completely engage with minority demographics
