Voting Behaviour

Question 1

What is the voting preference in Scotland?

Answer 1

The SNP are currently the largest party in Scotland with them holding a vast swathe of seats in Scotland, this is due to the popularity of a potential independence referendum. However, this could change!!

Question 2

What is the voting preference in Wales?

Answer 2

Labour holds a majority of seats in Wales with Nationalist parties such as Plaid Cyrmu performing poorly.

Question 3

What is the voting preference in North Ireland?

Answer 3

Protestants tend to vote for the DUP and UUP whilst catholics tend to vote for Sinn Fein and the Social Democratic Party, although a number of young people are starting to vote for Alliance.

Question 4

What is the voting preference in London?

Answer 4

London has a large working class population and therefore tends to vote Labour as is the case with Islington North.

Question 5

What is the voting preference in rural England?

Answer 5

Most rural constituencies tend to vote more conservatively as they have older populations as well as a larger middle class.

Question 6

What is the voting preference in Northern England?

Answer 6

In rural areas once again the Conservatives still perform relatively well however, due to the large number of industrial cities in the North a form of red wall exists.

Question 7

What is the voting preference in the Home Counties?

Answer 7

They tend to lean more towards the conservatives as they have a generally wealthy as well as a very much rural economy.

Question 8

In what way did the AB social class vote in 2017 and 2019?

Answer 8

2017: 46% Con, 38% Lab.
2019: 45% Con, 30% Lab.

Question 9

In what way did the DE social class vote in 2017 and 2019?

Answer 9

2017: 41% Con, 44% Lab.
2019: 41% Con, 39% Lab.

Question 10

In what way did Men vote in the 2017 and 2019?

Answer 10

2017: 44% Con, 40% Lab.
2019: 46% Con, 31% Lab.

Question 11

In what way did Women vote in 2017 and 2019?

Answer 11

2017: 43% Con, 42% Lab.
2019: 43% Con, 34% Lab.

Question 12

How did 18-24 Year old’s vote in 2017 and 2019?

Answer 12

2017: 27% Con, 62% Lab.
2019: 19% Con, 62% Lab.

Question 13

How did 65+ Year old’s vote in 2017 and 2019?

Answer 13

2017: 61% Con, 21% Lab.
2019: 64% Con, 17% Lab.

Question 14

In what way did Ethnic Groups vote in 2017 and 2019?

Answer 14

2017: White - 45% Con, 39% Lab. BME - 19% Con, 73 Lab.
2019: White - 45% Con, 39% Lab. BME - 20% Con, 64% Lab.

Question 15

Give some key examples of Newspapers effecting the vote?

Answer 15

1994 - It’s the Sun Wot won it.
2010 - The Rotten Parliament.
1997 - The Sun backs Blaire.
Rejoice! Boris Surges to a landslide win.

Question 16

What are the arguments for and against the theory of Social Capital regarding turnout?

Answer 16

-The decline of social capital means that people are less inclined to feel like they’re part of a society.
-There has been a growth of rights culture and media engagement.

Question 17

What are the arguments for and against the theory of education regarding turnout?

Answer 17

• Declining standards of education means that people are less aware of their civic responsibilities.
• Citizenship lessons means that citizens are better educated than ever before.

Question 18

What are the arguments for and against the theory of Electoral System regarding turnout?

Answer 18

• First Past the Post Alienates the electorate because the number of seats won does not reflect the votes received by the party.
• AV system was elected in the 2011 referendum, turnout even lower in lesser elections.

Question 19

What are the arguments for and against the theory of Party Loyalty regarding turnout?

Answer 19

• Partisan dealignment means that people are less motivated to vote.
• Party loyalty may have decline but people still engage through party loyalty and campaigns.

Question 20

What are the arguments for and against the theory of ethnic minorities regarding turnout?

Answer 20

• An increase in ethnic minorities less likely to votes as parties don’t represent them particularly.
• Ethnic minority increases began in the 1950s and therefore, does not explain the decline in turnout since 1992.

Question 21

What are the arguments for and against the theory of Post Thatcher Consensus regarding turnout?

Answer 21

• Post Thatcher consensus leads to little real choice for the electorate as most parties align with her views.
• However, did drift to the lift under Brown initially then continued by Milliband and then greatly expanded by Corbyn even if Starmer has undermined this.

Question 22

What are the arguments for and against the theory of growth of issues regarding turnout?

Answer 22

• The growth in issues and parties has made elections less clear cut and in turn more difficult to understand.
• People tend to cast their ballots on the one or two issues that mean the most to them.

Question 23

What are the arguments for and against the theory of Sleaze and media culture regarding turnout?

Answer 23

• Sleaze and media culture has turned people away from engaging in UK politics.
• Sleaze has existed for many years and did not damage elections in the 1950s and 1960s.

Question 24

Explain the three electoral theories that explain how voters make their choice?

Answer 24

Rational Choice Theory - This assumes that voters will make a rational or logical judgement based on their own interests, by aggregate the winning vote will be best for society.

Issue voting - In which voters place one issue above all other factors and in turn cast their vote based on this.

Economic of Valence issues - In which voters share a common preference whether it be a strong economy and in turn they will select the candidate who will most likely deliver on this issue and arguably it is almost always the economy.

Question 25

Give some examples of policies effecting the way that people vote?

Answer 25

2019 Conservatives and leaving the EU - The Conservatives promised to get Brexit done by January, they also promised to complete a post Brexit trade deal by December which would allow for a quick move away from the EU. People wanted to get Brexit done and therefore, this policy was popular.

2019 Labour and Nationalisation - Labour promised to nationalise all 6 of the big energy firms, national grid, water industry, royal mail, railways and the broadband branch of BT, this was incredibly popular with ideologically left wing people but scared businesses which the newspapers frequently emphasised.

2017 Conservatives and the Dementia Tax - Conservatives had to make a major policy U turn after May suggested that some people would have to pay for their required care which was incredibly unpopular and in part led to the Conservatives winning 317 seats in 2017.

Question 26

What were the key issues in 2024, 2019, 2017 and 2015?

Answer 26

• 2024 the main issue for voters is the current state of the economy as the cost of living crisis continues to rumble on.
• 2019 the main issue for voters was Brexit and getting it completed as soon as possible.
• 2017 the main issue for voters was also Brexit as the referendum had recently passed and people wanted to see results.
• 2015 the main issue was the question of membership within the EU as many people turned to UKIP.

Question 27

What is class dealignment?

Answer 27

Since the late 20th century onwards more and more people have been less likely to identify as part of a particular social class. If people do align with class it tends to be different to the one they’re actually in such as working class people identifying as middle class (embourgeoisement). For example in 2019 41% of the DE social class voted Conservative whilst 39% voted Labour.

Question 28

What is partisan dealignment?

Answer 28

There are many more floating voters then there are tribal voters as of the late 20th century. In past people tended to vote for what their parents voted for however, this has changed and is now generally based on short term factors. However, this may be entirely true as in 2019 80% of Labour voters in 2017 voted Labour in 2019 whilst 88% of Conservatives in 2017 voted for Conservatives in 2019.

Question 29

How did voting patters shift in 2019?

Answer 29

• Many older working class people switched to supporting the Conservative Party for example 53% of DE aged 55+ voted Conservative whilst only 26% voted Labour. Furthermore 18% of the DE social class voted UKIP in 2015.
• Labour performed better with university educated people, 39% of people with degrees voted Labour whilst 34% of people voted Conservative.

Question 30

What did both of the Harold’ say about short term factors?

Answer 30

Harold MacMillan - “Events, dear boy, events”.
Harold Wilson - “A week is a long time in politics”.

Question 31

Short Term Factors - Economic Circumstances?

Answer 31

There have been several elections where the economic circumstances were highly important in the buildup to an election, especially when the electorate vote out the incumbent government. Examples include 1979 in the aftermath of the Winter of Discontent and 2010 in the aftermath of the 2010 economic crash. Less relevant in 2019 however, most likely important in 2024.

Question 32

Short Term Factors - Popularity of Party Leaders?

Answer 32

Sometimes the popularity of a leader can be incredibly important. In 2017 Theresa May called an election hoping to increase her majority however, due to poor policies and poor leadership they lost their majority. In 2019 Boris Johnson was well liked but Corbyn was not. However, sometimes these factors cancel each other out with Callaghan losing in 1979 despite being well liked.

Question 33

Short Term Factors - Valence Issues?

Answer 33

People often vote for the party they trust most with important issues. Often all main parties enter an election making similar promises (Conservatives 50’000 new nurses and 40 new hospitals, Labour 4.3% increase to health budget). People vote on what party they can trust to deliver on policy such as Conservatives with Brexit in 2019.

Question 34

Short Term factors - Media Interest?

Answer 34

The media is generally incredibly influential in elections as candidates have to work to keep them on side furthermore, they often set the main theme of the election.

Question 35

What role did the media play in the 2019 General Election?

Answer 35

• The Conservatives would deliberately boycott debates which they may not have performed well in such as the channel 4 Climate Debate as well as an interview with the BBC’s Andrew Neil.
• The media frequently attacked Jeremy Corbyn for claims of anti-Semitism in his party and the left win nature of his policies which some deemed at unfeasible.

Question 36

Short Term Factors - Specific Policies?

Answer 36

• People may vote for specific policies in a rational manner meaning that they’ll vote for policies which benefit them economically for example.
• Some people vote for policy for more long terms reasons as they align with their ideological beliefs, for example many young people voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 and Labour in 2017 for their pledge to abolish tuition fees.