voting behaviour Flashcards
turnout for 1979 ge
76%
result for 1979 ge
44% con vote, 339 seats so thatcher became pm
which voting model best explains the 1979 ge result
valence - callaghan was not seen as a competent party leader due to the winter of discontent (could not handle the economy) - con campaign focused on this with posters such as ‘Labour isnt working’
did gender have an impact in the 1979 ge
no for male voters but yes, a minor impact, for female voters, potentially because thatcher was first female pm
what persentage of women voted con vs lab in 1979 ge
47% to 35%
did age have an impa ct on voting behaviour in 1979 ge
no, not a significant one
what long-term factor had the most significant impact of the 1979 ge result
class; thatcher targeted her campaign to catch traditionally labour c2 voters, such as taking photo opps with farm animals or in factories, resulting in an 18% swing amongst this class of voters
what % of c2 voted con and lab in 1979 ge
equally 41% - con had a majority of ABC1 as well
how much of an impact did the party leader have on the election 1979
little - callaghan was liked and seen as ‘sunny jim’ but was also presented as out of touch (‘crisis? what crisis?’) so could not turn the popularity into votes - thatcher was not popular but knew how to run an effective campaign and made herself attractive to lab voters
was there an element of issue based voting in 1979 ge
yes - economy was poor due to winter of discontent so people voted on who they trusted to improve it to a greater extent
how important was the campaign and manifesto for the 1979 ge?
for lab they campaigned on the idea that changing gov would ‘risk tearing everything up by the roots’ whereas cons campaigned on destroying the credibility of lab with the economy and promoting the idea that ‘labour isnt working’
impact of media on 1979 ge
callaghan was presented as out of touch by the sun (crisis? what crisis?) whereas thatcher’s media presence was well-controlled to present her as a competent leader and persuade voters - crafted media moments with farm animals and in factories to drum up C2 support
how accurate were opinion polls in the run up to the 1979 ge and what affect did they have on the outcome
predicted a con win accurately - 75% dissatisfied with lab gov and 62% dissatisfied with callaghan - thatcher did not have to do anything remarkable just had to not mess up.
result of 1997 ge
43% voted Lab so Blair became PM, 418 seats
turnout of 1997 ge
71%
how important was class in 1997 ge
still predominantly voted along class clines with ABC1 voting predom con and C2 (50% of the vote) and DE (59% of the vote) voting predom lab - new labour’s more centralist policies after removing clause IV meant more typically non-lab leaners voted lab (exemplifies class dealignment)
how significant was age in 1997 ge
blair’s popularity reduced distinctions between age groups as lab got a large % of voted in every age group
importnace of con manifesto in 1997 ge
con - policy to give a tax-break to married couples to promote traditional family values made cons seem out of touch, especially with sleaze scandals
which voting model best exemplifies 1997 ge result
valence - blair’s ‘tight-ship’ campaign meant that many trusted him to lead a country as he could very effectievly lead his party and restore unity - ‘i lead my party, he follows his’ - Major’s campaign was riddled with scandals such as ‘cash for Qs’ and sleaze, could not keep his party under check - general public did not see him to be competent or capabvle enough to run a country
impact of party leader on 1997 ge
blair was electoral asset - very popular in the eyes of the public - charismatic and energetic - ‘things can only get better’ campaign vid presented blair to be a man of the people - major had lost previous 1992 popularity and was now seen to be dull and uncharismatic
importance of labour manifesto in 1997 ge
included many democratisation policies which many nationalist voters could support such as devolution to scotland and wales - 45% of scots voted lab in comparison to 18% voting Con
who ran blair’s campaign
alistar campbell, peter mandleson, gordon brown
what impact did media have on 1997 ge result
sun swiched allegiance to lab - sun backs blair - already had high approval ratings in polls however and a lab win was predicted, not to the extent that was actually achieved though - tabloids ran sleaze campaigns on tory mps who werent upholding traditional family values they were attempting to campaign on
turnout of 2010 ge
65%
turnout of 2001 ge
59%
result of 2010 ge
307 con seats and 57 lib dem seats, forming a coallition gov with cameron as pm and nick clegg as deputy pm
which voting modeal best explains result of 2010 ge
issue based voting - 2008 financial crash led to economic crisis and lab could not be trusted with the economy OR rational choice for younger voters who voted for lib dems for best results for them with tuition fees
what impact did clegg have on the 2010 ge result
became very popular in televised debates - cleggmania - jumped 10% in polls overnight after first tv debate - ‘i agree with clegg’, opinion poll after tv debate found that over 50%$ of viewers agreed that glegg had won the debate in comparison to cameron and brown
what impact did cameron have on the 2010 ge result
viewed as youngt and charismatic, an ‘heir to blair’ - more centrist than previous tory leaders and was seen as a ‘pm in waiting’ by many voters
how did brown’s campaign backfire
his efforts to meet ordinary voters backfired when calling a woman from rochdale - loyal labour party voter - a biggot
what was the overall impact of party leaders in 2010 ge
labour big loss could show big impact (brown’s pop reduced) however clegg could not transfer popularity into votes and seats so lacked an impact
what was the clearest indicator of voting behaviour out of long term factors in 2010 ge
age - whilst young voters were more inclined to vote lib dem than usual because of nick clegg’s tuition promises (30% con, 31% lab, 30% lib dem), older voters were much more likely to vote con
what impact did brown have on the 2010 ge result
increasingly seen as outdated and less in touch, called a woman from rochdale a biggot, urged to step down as party leader by ex-mp to give his party a ‘fighgting chance of winning’
what aspect of the media was a major feature of the 2010 ge campaign
tv debates between three major party leaders - painted lib dems as a fresh face for politics
what were the main lib dem manifesto promises of the 2010 ge
replace fptp with stv to improve fairness and scrap uni tuition fees
turnout of 2019 ge
67%
was the campaign and manifesto an important feature of the 2010 ge
yes, it had a relatively large impact
what impact did the media have in the 2010 ge?
sun swiched back to su[pport con, brown’s career ending comment of ‘biggotted woman’, Brown’s ‘i agree with nick’ in tv debates painted him as a follower and not a leader
importance of region in 2019 ge?
region reduced importance - collapse of red wall turned traditionally lab areas more con - votes for con mainly were in areas of ‘leave’ whereas votes for ‘remain’ were split between lab, lib dems, greens, etc
result of 2019 ge
365 seats for cons, only 202 for lab - worst lab loss since 1930s
importance of class in 2019 ge?
cons won a plurality in every class with the collapse of the red wall so class dealignment was evident and class was not a significant indicator of voting behaviour - C2 vote cons won 47% compared to lab’s 32%
what was one of the main reasons why typical lab voters did not vote lab in 2019
corbyn wasnt trusted as a leader - 35% said they didnt vote lab because of Corbyn - many dissatisfied with him as leader and with his handling of brexit (77% dissatisfied)
what voting modeal best exemplifies 2019 ge result
issue based voting - voted in lines with brexit ref results - oven ready deal, get brexit done - johnson got a deal so he was trusted more than corbyn to deliver on the promise of brexit with the least hastle
importance of age in 2019 ge?
younger people were more likely to vote remain in 2016 brexit ref so were more likely to vote lab at 2019 ge (73% 18-24 year olds voted remain, 62% 18-24 y/o voted lab) whereas 65+ were more likely to vote leave (40% voted remain) and therefore con (64%) - age was a clear indicator of voting behaviour
impact of sun headline 2019?
‘if red jez gets in, the light will go out for good’ - strong support for cons, ran slander campaigns on lab throughout such as links to antisemitism (jezza’s jihaddi comrades) + jihaddi supporter - clear large influence due to abysmal approval ratings of corbyn
how important was the campaign of 2019 ge?
not very - forgone conclusion that cons would win - oven ready deal and get brexit done - johnson skipped out on interviews and hid in a fridge but still won a landslide victory - issues took precedence
why may print media may be said to not have had a large impact on voting behaviour
people typically read newspapers that back up their political views and create echo-chambers so did not sway many voters
how much of an impact did social media have 2019?
less than 2017 with the ‘fact check’ tory twitter account
what was 2017 ge coined as
the social media election
give an example of a tritter # used in 2017
forthepeople
spendings of facebook adds in 2017
£2.1 mill by cons on FB adds, had 2500 in circulation at one point but lib dems had more at 3000 so arguably ineffective as they did not recieve much electoral success
opinion polls correct in 2017?
no, predicted a con majority but actual result was hung p - may have lured cons into a false sense of security
the sun headline for corbyn in 2017
‘dont chuck britain in the cor-bin’
who refused to participate in tv debates and when
may 2017, instead sending then hoke sec amber rudd to do so on her behalf
mpact of media in 2017
arguably not that great - was plenty slander for lab and trad print still supported cons but neither side won an outright majority
tabloid media presentation of party leaders in 1979
‘crisis? what crisis’ presented calaghan as incredibly out of touch after winter of discontent v ‘Sunny Jim’ nickname shawed callaghan to be previously considered a caring and likeable guy - media turned on him - suggestion of some impact as the contrasting headlines resulted in a lack of support, losing to thatcher at ge
‘if kinnock wins tonight…
will the last person to leave britain please turn out the loights’
opinion polls in 1992
famously incorrect - predicted labour win (done by the independent on election day predicted a 3% lab lead, potentially luring them into a false sense of security - but cons actually win by 7.6% majority - ‘its the sun wot won it’ - had the largest monthly readership at the time
why may opinion polls be in correct
people unwilling to admit who they voted for e.g. ‘shy tories’, change in opinion on the day, incorrect sampling methods
turnout 1992
78%
importance of region in 1992
lab won trad heartlands in north - 51 seats of 99 available in north compared to just 33 to cons
opinion polls for 97
predicted a clear lab win with Gallup and the Times even suspecting lab would win over 50% of pop vote at one point but there were still large discrepancies e.g gallup 22% lead v Guardian 2 days later predicted 10% lead
how did print media coverage affect 2019 ge result
substantial majority of lab coverage was negative and in high circulation, resulting in their worst win since the 1930s of 202 seats
