voting behaviour Flashcards
class
still important but less so due to class dealignment
AB, C1, C2, DE
AB - 1964 78% -> 2019 45% CON
DE - 1964 64% -> 2019 39% LAB
age
the most important factor
as people get older they vote more conservative
2019:
56% 18-24 LAB
57% 65+ CON
2017:
youthquake - LAB targeting young voters
54% 18-24
young people tend to focus on social issues + have less to lose - LAB have more social justice policies
older people tend to be more rational and self-interested - focus on job security, family issues - have more to lose in general - CON have more cautious and family orientated policies
region
quite important and is linked to class due to the economic disparities in England
CON - the SE, South, Midlands
LAB - the north, wales, London, (scotland)
2017:
54% south CON
53% north LAB
education
not as important bc it is linked with the age factor:
- young people are more likely to have a university degree - vote LAB
- old people are less likely to have a university degree - vote CON
education has a liberalising effect - the more educated someone is, the more likely they are to vote labour:
2017 (people with degrees)
- 47% LAB
- 36% CON
However, across all education groups, people voted for Conservatives more in 2019
ethnicity
There is a strong correlation between being BAME and voting LAB, however, due to low turnout - not v influential.
With social mobility, people also tend to focus on other issues.
64% LAB in 2019
70% LAB in 1997
CON have a history of anti-immigration policy - Windrush scandal, ‘Hostile Environment’ policy, Suella Bravermann
LAB have passed anti-discriminatory laws when in power - Equality Act 2010
Gender
there is no strong correlation between gender and voting behaviour
turnout
people turnout when they think their vote will affect the results
- depends how close the election is
older people tend to turnout -> better for conservatives
- only 47% of 18-24 yr olds turned out in 2019
BAME tend not to turnout -> bad for labour
ABs are most likely to turnout -> good for conservatives
- 68% turnout in 2019
Voter ID Regulation 2022 - makes it harder to vote - old ppl tend not to have IDs -> bad for conservatives
turnout has steadily declined
67.3% in 2019
77.7% in 1992
valence
how competent a party appears
judged on economy, party unity, leadership
tends to revolve around big national issues
eg
1979 - Winter of Discontent, Trade Unions
1997 - Toy sleaze
2019 - Brexit
rational choice
when people vote based on their own interests
volatile and difficult to predict
eg Labour voters ‘lending’ their votes to CON 2019
leaders
could argue for growth in personality politics
2015 - Cameron > Miliband
2007 - Brown > Blair
2022 - BJ ousted
BUT normally linked to how well the part is doing in general
- BJ ousted due to partygate and other investigations
- 1979 - Thatcher won despite Callaghan having higher opinoin polls 20%
- 2010 Nick Clegg popular but lost 1%
1979
CON victory (Thatcher) - 43.9%
turnout 76%
class - class dealignment + working class abstained - voting according to class still apparent in results
winter of discontent
inflation, unemployment
LAB too soft on trade unions
CON promised to go back to free market and curb power of trade unions
1997
LAB victory (New Labour) - 43.2%
turnout 71%
class - LAB trying to ‘woo’ middle class bc loss of working class
Tory sleaze - ‘Cash for Questions’
CON disunited over Maastricht treaty
CON had a tired image
LAB offered the opposite
leaders - John Major vs Tony Blair had stark contrast
NHS and education in decline - LAB promised to make huge investments
age - LAB won decisively except 65+
2019
CON victory (BJ) - 43.6%
turnout - 67.3%
austerity
Brexit - ‘oven ready deal’
LAB disunited over Brexit
Corbyn antisemitic, unpatriotic, too left-wing
turn of the ‘great red wall’
CON gained seats among working class
