VOTING BEHAVIOR AND THE MEDIA Flashcards
1979 what happened
- tory majority of 43
- labour down 63, tory up 50
- no small parties won significant seats
- SNP lost 9/11 seats, loss of interest in devolution
- change from weak labour to strong tory gov
- evil witch became PM
1979 why
BACKGROUND
- wave of public sector strikes, labour could not control trade union power
- economy in poor state with high inflation, which labour became associated with
- issue over state regulation vs free market
INFLUENCES ON OUTCOME
- labour ran a poor election campaign implying that should not elect a woman
- labour not trusted w economy
- labour appeared disunited
- tories promised to expand home ownership
- growing middle and shrinking working class gave tories natural advantage
1979 impact
- moved from a period of indecisive weak gov w small majority to a gov w working majority
- start of 18 years of tories
- most of electorate became centrist or right
1997 what happened
- landslide blair labour victory
- lib dems breakthrough 46 seats
- labour 43% vote 63% seats
- tories lost 173 labour gained 145
- lib dem’s gained 28
1997 why
BACKGROUND
- 1990s economic recession
- NHS in decline
- education standards and funding falling
- high crime levels
INFLUENCES ON OUTCOME
- blair seen as charismatic, major seen as dull and inspiring
- third way was able to appear to middle class, got rid of reputation of bad with economy
- electorate weary of years of tory rule
- media support for labour
1997 affects
- start of 13 years of labour
- huge parliamentary majority so started mass social economic and constitutional reform
- started a three party system
2010 what happened
- tories 37% lib dems 23%
- election polls v inaccurate
- first hung parliament since 1974
2010 why
BACKGROUND
- fully based on financial crisis
- labour blamed for financial system
- growth in gov debt brought back reputation
- spend out of crisis vs austerity
INFLUENCES ON OUTCOME
- brown weak and indecisive, cameron fresher
- labour snp coalition suggested V UNPOPULAR
- opinion polls influences as pointed to this
- press criticised brown
2010 effects
- labour failed to form a coalition so tories invited w lib dems
- five years of problematic fragile gov
- three party system emerging
2017 what happened
- tories had to reach confidence and supply agreement with DUP to reach majority
- labour increased vote by 10%
- UKIP lost all, SNP and lib dems damaged
- hung parliament
2017 why
BACKGROUND
- clear choice of left wing vs centrist
- tories focused on strong leadership and concluding brexit negotiations
- labour wanted to nationalise, rise tax for wealthy and spend on health and education
INFLUENCE ON OUTCOME
- corbyn raised profile and support, may reputation damaged
- young voted in large numbers
- most ukip voters went tory
- press were tory but labour successfully used social media
2017 effect
- hung parliament
- weak minority gov
- no longer three party system
- meant labour turned to the right
factors in electoral campaigns
- manifestos. helped labour in 2017 but normally little impact
- leadership debates. nick clegg / brown 2010
- biased press. blair, labour 2015
- parties concentrate on issues they consider themselves strong in, reinforce rather than change intentions
demographic factors
CLASS
influence in decline, but still evident AB tory DE labour
AGE
young adults vote labour, older vote tory, younger are more radical
GENDER
little or no impact
ETHNICITY
bame very likely to vote labour. but established immigrant groups tend to go tory.
REIGON
south are tory, north are labour, scotland labour or snp
cities are labour, rural are tory
impact of the media and issues
- newspapers identify issues they see as more important, do favour some parties more than others
- newspapers often influence the image of leaders
- heavily influence valence
- many politicians believe newspapers have influence so will try to pleqse them
- newspapers free
- BUT they often only reinforce not change
- broadcast media allowed no political bias
- social media now important but many different opinions expressed
for and against banning opinion polls
FOR
- influence the way people vote
- proved to be inaccurate
- politicians should not change policies based on polls
AGAINST
- would infringe on freedom of expression
- will only be available to private organisations
- give valuable info on people’s attitudes
- would still be published abroad
