Voting Behavior Flashcards
voting behavior classes
Class type
Description
AB
Higher Managerial (Director, Lawyer, Doctor, Senior Executive)
C1
Professional occupations (Teachers, Managers, Social Workers)
C2
Skilled Manual (Plumber, Train Driver, Mechanic)
DE
Unskilled or Unemployed (Labourer, Call Centre)
Media examples
Media comes in three forms:
Broadcasting: Broadcasters by law have to remain neutral, but due to the live interviews and debates they can still be decisive in swaying voters:
Ed Miliband was seen to have performed poorly in 2015- ‘Hell Yes I’m Tough Enough’
Theresa May lost much of her authority in poor media appearances after social care u-turn and refusing to turn up to debates.
Nick Clegg did very well in 2010 debates to help Lib Dem Polls (but Lib Dems still lost seats that election) Debates were seen as quite dull in 2019, so no big change to anything.
Press: Our newspapers do not need to be impartial can be seen to be very biased in their reporting, however 2017 suggests their influence is reducing.
Newspapers previouslt helped to se the agenda and ensured we remembered events- 1979 ‘Crisis what Crisis?’
Newspapers such as the Sun have previously launched successful campaigns against Labour leaders- Neil Kinnock in 1992 and Ed Miliband in 2015 (Both lost elections). Newspapers help to influence valence
Look at 1997 and 2017 case studies for stats.
In 2017 Corbyn managed to overcome bad press to improve (Remember front page- Cor-Bin)
Social Media: Relatively new on the scene, adverts on Facebook, Twitter and Snapchat are becoming much more important.
In 2015 Tories outspent Labour on Social Media in key marginals.
2017 saw massive social media campaign from Labour and groups such as Momentum: o 39% of 18-24 said Facebook and Twitter are their main forms of information in 2017 election. 50% said Social Media was most important factor on vote.
o This Momentum video was watched 5.4 million times on Facebook in just two days!
2019 Social Media dominated by Labour with higher spending, follows, retweets etc. Yet… Tories still win the election!
party leaders examples
inking to media, the party leader has become much more important when it comes down to motivating voters.
Margaret Thatcher was seen as strong and decisive and had a good record in her wins of 1983 and 1987.
Tony Blair has excellent communication skills and was very good on Tv and other media in 1997, 2001 and 2005.
John Major was seen as weak and unable to control his party when losing in 1997 Gordon Brown was seen as weak and poor at communicating in 2010 Ed Miliband was seen as weak and nerdy in 2015 loss.
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn had role reversals in 2017 which helped to change result.
2019, BoJo seen as much better than Jeremy Corbyn
Economic influences examples
Linking to Valence, if the economic situation of a country is good the Government tends to win, if it is bad they tend to lose.
Labour’s 1978-79 Winter of Discontent made sure they lost in May 1979 Election.
Tories Black Wednesday and recession of 1990s ensured Labour won in 1997.
Financial crisis of 2008 ensured Labour lost in 2010.
issue voting examples
Two types- based purely on one issue/policy Instrumental is when you vote out of self interest. Expressive is when you vote for the benefit of others.
Students voting for Labour in 2017 due to tuition fees pledge
Middle classes voting for Labour in 1997 due to New Labour policies of low taxes.
rational choice examples
When voters make their decision based on what policies are most important to them (Salient issues) and who has the best ones.
In 2015 Economy and Immigration were seen as two most salient points so Tories won
In 1997 NHS and Education were seen as two most salient points so Labour won
In 2017 while Brexit was most salient it was closely followed by NHS and Cuts, hence surprising gains for Labour.
In 2019 Brexit was most salient, with Economy second, hence Tory win.
valence examples
Valence is essentially how far you like/trust the vibe of the party, and this is based on a number of factors:
Governing Competence: Does the party appear to make good decisions? Are they decisive and do they/did they govern well? Tories were bad at this in 1997 and Labour were bad in 2010.
Economic Competence: Can the party be trusted to look after the economy? Tories were seen as not being able to after Black Wednesday in 1992 and Labour weren’t after crash of 2008 (Both lost elections)
Party Unity: If the party aren’t united they can’t be trusted to run the country- Labour in the 1980s suffered from this and so did Tories in 2000s
Party leaders: Can they be trusted and are they respected? Clegg was respected in 2010, but not in 2015 hence massive loss in votes. Miliband seen as less strong than Cameron in 2015
1979 GE
Context:
Labour’s Struggles: Lost a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons (over half said they had no confidence in the government).
Winter of Discontent: A period of widespread strikes, with issues like bins not being emptied, electricity shortages, and unburied dead bodies.
Turnout:
76%
Valence:
Labour: Seen as unable to control trade unions, ruined the economy, chaotic, and anti-aspiration.
Tories: Seen as the party of aspiration. James Callaghan noted a ‘sea change’ for Mrs. Thatcher.
Winter of Discontent: Occurred just before the election.
Economic Issues:
Stagnating Economy: Inflation reached 28%.
IMF Loan (1976): Labour had to borrow money, which was an embarrassing moment for the government.
‘Crisis? What Crisis?’ A phrase associated with the Labour government’s dismissive approach.
Media:
Sun Newspaper: Strongly anti-Labour with headlines like ‘Crisis? What Crisis?’
Tory Campaign Ads: Created by Saatchi and Saatchi, with the famous ‘Labour Isn’t Working’ campaign being key in the election.
Policies:
Labour’s Proposal: A pay freeze, though they had already failed to implement it.
Tories’ Proposal: Tax cuts to boost the economy.
Party Leaders:
James Callaghan (Labour): Popular, 20% ahead of Thatcher in polls, but still lost the election.
Margaret Thatcher (Tories): Gained a significant victory.
Overall Results:
Conservative: 339 seats (+63), 43.9% of the vote (+8.1%)
Labour: 269 seats (-50), 36.9% of the vote (-2.3%)
Liberal: 11 seats (+1), 13.8% of the vote (-4.5%)
Others: 16 seats (+5), 5.4% of the vote (-1.4%)
Turnout: 76%
Gender Breakdown:
Conservative: 43% men, 47% women
Labour: 40% men, 35% women
Liberal: 13% men, 15% women
Age Breakdown:
18-24: Conservative 42%, Labour 41%, Liberal 12%
25-34: Conservative 43%, Labour 38%, Liberal 15%
35-54: Conservative 46%, Labour 35%, Liberal 15%
55+: Conservative 47%, Labour 38%, Liberal 13%
Class Breakdown:
ABC1: Conservative 59%, Labour 24%, Liberal 15%
C2: Conservative 41%, Labour 41%, Liberal 15%
DE: Conservative 34%, Labour 49%, Liberal 13%
1997 GE:
1997 Results:
Labour: 44% (+9%)
Conservative: 31% (-12%)
Lib Dem: 17% (-1%)
Other: 7% (+3.4%)
Seats:
Labour: 418
Conservatives: 165
Voter Demographics:
Gender:
Labour: Men 45%, Women 44%
Conservative: Men 31%, Women 32%
Lib Dem: Men 17%, Women 28%
Age:
18-24: Labour 49%, Tory 27%
65+: Labour 41%, Tory 36%
Class:
C2: Labour 50%, Tory 27%
DE: Labour 59%, Tory 21%
Region:
North: Labour 61%, Tory 22%
South East: Labour 32%, Tory 41%
Ethnicity:
White: Labour 43%, Tory 32%
Asian: Labour 66%, Tory 22%
Black: Labour 82%, Tory 12%
Newspapers:
Labour: Mirror 72%, Guardian 67%, Sun 52%
Tory: Express 49%, Telegraph 57%, Mail 49%
Other Factors:
Valence:
Tories: 18 years in power, seen as incompetent (Black Wednesday), divided over Europe, and sleaze-ridden.
Labour: Seen as united, modern, and trustworthy, with policies like the Pledge Card.
Economic:
Tories: Economic issues after Black Wednesday, raised taxes, and a recession.
Labour: Seen as the best party for NHS and education.
Media:
Labour: Nearly all newspapers supported them (even The Sun!).
Tory Newspapers: Couldn’t sway their readers.
Policies:
Labour: Pledged to cut class sizes, not raise taxes, reduce NHS waiting times, tackle youth crime, and get under 25s off benefits.
Tories: Focused on defense but lacked voter interest.
Party Leaders:
Tony Blair (Labour): Dynamic, popular (+45 rating).
John Major (Conservative): Weak, unpopular (-20 rating).
2017 GE
Context:
Unexpected Election: Theresa May called the election on April 18th, 2017, despite there being no election scheduled until 2020.
May’s Lead: She had a +20 point lead over Labour, and polls indicated a likely victory. The election was called to strengthen her Brexit mandate and negotiating position.
Labour’s Weakness: Labour, led by Jeremy Corbyn, was seen as divided and weak.
Election Results:
Conservative: 42.4% of the vote (+9.6%)
Labour: 40% of the vote (+5.5%)
Lib Dem: 7.4% of the vote (-0.5%)
Other: 10.2% of the vote
Result: Hung Parliament! May lost her majority. A shock result.
Turnout: 76%
Gender Breakdown:
Labour: 40% men, 42% women
Conservative: 44% men, 43% women
Lib Dem: 7% men, 8% women
Age Breakdown:
18-24: Labour 62%, Tory 27%, Lib Dem 5%
25-34: Labour 56%, Tory 27%, Lib Dem 9%
35-44: Labour 49%, Tory 33%, Lib Dem 10%
45-54: Labour 40%, Tory 43%, Lib Dem 7%
55-64: Labour 34%, Tory 51%, Lib Dem 7%
65+: Labour 25%, Tory 61%, Lib Dem 7%
Class Breakdown:
ABC1: Conservative 47%, Labour 37%, Lib Dem 10%
C2: Conservative 44%, Labour 41%, Lib Dem 6%
DE: Conservative 38%, Labour 47%, Lib Dem 5%
Region Breakdown:
Scotland: Labour 28.6%, Tory 27.1%, Lib Dem 6.8% (SNP 36.9%)
North East: Labour 55.4%, Tory 34.4%, Lib Dem 4.6%
Wales: Labour 48.9%, Tory 33.6%, Lib Dem 4.5% (PC 10.4%)
Greater London: Labour 33.1%, Tory 54.5%, Lib Dem 8.8%
Newspaper Support:
Labour: Mirror 68%, Guardian 73%, Independent 66%
Tory: Express 77%, Mail 74%, Sun 59%, Times 58%
Lib Dem: FT 14%, Guardian 12%
Ethnicity Breakdown:
White: Labour 39%, Tory 45%, Lib Dem 8%
BME: Labour 73%, Tory 19%, Lib Dem 6%
Other Factors:
Valence:
Before: Tories seen as strong, stable, and united. Labour seen as weak and stuck in the past.
After: Tories seen as weak, wobbly, indecisive; Labour seen as listening to the people with strong leadership.
Events of the Campaign:
May’s U-turn on Social Care: The “dementia tax” was reversed after backlash.
Terror Attacks: Focus shifted from defence to cuts in police funding, helping Labour.
Debates/Media: May avoided debates, while Corbyn performed well, boosting his popularity.
Economic:
Wages Declining: Economic decline played into voters’ decision to turn against the Tories.
Inflation Up.
Media Impact:
Social Media Influence: 39% of 18-24-year-olds said Facebook and Twitter were their main information sources; 50% said social media influenced their vote.
Policies:
Brexit: The main issue for May’s Tories, though Labour focused on NHS and education.
Labour’s Manifesto: Anti-austerity, public spending, and tuition fees promises resonated with many voters.
Party Leaders:
Theresa May: Initially had a strong lead but lost it as the campaign progressed.
Jeremy Corbyn: Gained momentum, overtook May before the election.
Ruth Davidson (Scottish Conservatives): Very popular, especially in Scotland.
2019 GE
Context:
Boris Johnson became PM in July 2019 after Theresa May’s resignation.
He inherited a lack of majority and struggled to pass legislation for his first 6 weeks.
After failing to pass his Brexit deal, Johnson called for an election, which opposition parties agreed to, despite his 10% lead in the polls.
His popularity was boosted by his commitment to Brexit (e.g., proroguing Parliament).
Election Results:
Conservative: 43.6% of the vote (+1.2%) | 365 seats (+48)
Labour: 32.2% of the vote (-7.8%) | 202 seats (-60)
Lib Dem: 11.6% of the vote (+4.2%) | 11 seats (-1)
Other: 12.6% of the vote
SNP won 48/59 seats in Scotland.
Brexit Party received 2% of the vote, Green Party got 2.7%.
Gender Breakdown:
Labour: 31% men, 35% women
Conservative: 46% men, 44% women
Lib Dem: 12% men, 11% women
Age Breakdown:
18-24: Labour 56%, Tory 21%, Lib Dem 11%
25-34: Labour 54%, Tory 23%, Lib Dem 12%
35-44: Labour 46%, Tory 30%, Lib Dem 14%
45-54: Labour 35%, Tory 41%, Lib Dem 13%
55-64: Labour 28%, Tory 49%, Lib Dem 12%
60-69: Labour 22%, Tory 57%, Lib Dem 11%
70+: Labour 14%, Tory 67%, Lib Dem 11%
Class Breakdown:
AB: Conservative 42%, Labour 32%, Lib Dem 16%
C1: Conservative 43%, Labour 34%, Lib Dem 12%
C2: Conservative 49%, Labour 31% (-10%), Lib Dem 9%
DE: Conservative 47% (+9%), Labour 34% (-13%), Lib Dem 8%
Region Breakdown:
Scotland: Labour 28.6%, Tory 27.1%, Lib Dem 6.8% (SNP 36.9%)
North East: Labour 42.6% (-12%), Tory 38.3%, Lib Dem 7.9%
Wales: Labour 48.9%, Tory 33.6%, Lib Dem 4.5% (PC 10.4%)
Greater London: Labour 48.1%, Tory 32%, Lib Dem 14.9%
Ethnicity Breakdown:
White: Labour 29%, Tory 48%, Lib Dem 12%
BME: Labour 64%, Tory 20%, Lib Dem 12%
Other Factors:
Valence:
Before: Tories were seen as united under Boris Johnson and focused on delivering Brexit.
After: Labour seen as divided (Corbyn unpatriotic, anti-Brexit, antisemitic).
Corbyn was historically unpopular (-50), while Johnson was unpopular but less so (-10).
Campaign Events:
Tories’ Expectations: Entered expecting a majority with little change during the campaign.
Debates/Media: Corbyn was criticized for refusing to apologize for antisemitism. Johnson avoided debates.
Social Media: Labour dominated in social media engagement, but Tories still won.
Policies:
Labour: Manifesto similar to 2017, lacked impact; unclear stance on Brexit (Corbyn’s “neutral” position was criticized).
Conservative: Focused on “Get Brexit Done”, a simple but popular message after Brexit chaos.
