US Electoral process and direct democracy Flashcards
What are the 4 main elections in the USA?
- Presidential elections
- Congressional elections
- Primaries (and rarely caucuses)
- Direct democracy (ballot initiatives, referendums and recall elections)
What are the timings of elections for the president? Congress?
President every 4 years in November with the formal inauguration in Jan
Congressional elections every 2 years with while of the House and 1/3 of the Senate up for election
Who controversially went to the polls in April 2020 at the height of the pandemic for its primaries and local elections?
Wisconsin
What federal laws in elections apply across the whole of the US?
Polling stations must be accessible to people with disabilities and there must be no racial or gender discrimination
However, what roles do states play?
They can gerrymander
Individual states have more leeway in areas such as Voter ID laws and how primary elections are organised
What impacts do parties have?
They determine the procedure for awarding delegates to the national nominating conventions
In 2020 which Green Party candidate did not appear on the ballot in 21 states, being a write-in in 17 and no opportunity to vote Green in 4?
Howie Hawkins
In practice, nearly all US elections employ a…
majoritarian electoral system
However there are some variations (apart from for the Electoral College)
Give an example:
Since 2018 Maine has used a ranked-choice voting system similar to STV, for congressional and local elections - the 2018 midterms saw one House district (2nd) not being won by the candidate who won the most first preference votes
Which state’s election laws require a top-two election for its Senate seat (meaning if a candidate fails to get over 50% of the vote a runoff election will take place 8 weeks later between the top 2 candidates)?
Georgia - happened in 2020
Which state has a non-partisan blanket primary law where any top 2 candidates go head to head regardless of party affiliation, and then go head to head in the actual Senate election?
California - 2018 only Dems in the race
How are the number of delegates decided for states?
All states + DC have at least 3 delegates (2 senators 1 House member)
Each state received an allocation of ECVs equivalent to the size of their congressional delegation
Who has the largest number of delegates and who the lowest?
California (55) - they have 5
Washington DC has no voting members of Congress but the 21st Amendment (1961) gave it 3
Recounted every 10 years based on the national consensus (so states who have a growth in population get more ECVs and vice versa - happened to Texas in 2010 who gained 4 ECVs)
Why is a vote in Alaska of 3 times the importance of a vote in California?
Because California receives 1 electoral college votes for every 727,000 votes while Alaska receives 3 electoral college votes for every 730,000!
Smaller states are favoured over larger ones
What are the strengths of the US electoral system?
A huge number of elections and elected offices offer many opportunities for political participation
A majoritarian system used in most of the USA usually gives a clear result and single-party control of legislative chambers
The electoral system reflects the federal nature of the US government with individual states having much discretion over aspects of elections
Primaries and caucuses enable ordinary voters to play the key role in selecting candidates for political parties
The EC again reinforces the federal nature of the USA and ensures smaller states are not overlooked
What are the weaknesses of the US electoral system?
Voter fatigue - apathy and cynicism
Favours a two-party system where independents and 3rd parties are locked out
Two parties often control one chamber each of Congress or a state legislature which makes deadlock more common
Electoral manipulation through gerrymandering and voter ID laws in individual states
Primaries and caucuses increase the length and cost of elections, also encouraging party divides
Electoral distortion via the Electoral College which can considerably exaggerate the power of smaller states
What are the 6 characteristics of US election campaigns?
- Frequency
- Individuality
- Getting the ‘right’ people to turn out
- The swing movement
- ‘Money, money, money’
- Midterm blues w/o limits
Frequency:
Invisible primaries
Voter fatigue
Presidents and congressional candidates are pretty much CONSTANTLY CAMPAIGNING
Economy is seen as crucial to a president’s re-election bid, hence why Trump did NOT want to promote a national lockdown
Individuality:
US election campaign are
up to the individual
Party allegiance often isn’t mentioned
Raising campaigns via placards, publicity and political ads on social media and TV
While state and national parties play an important role in channelling finances and directing donors
But as Trump’s victory showed with enough money, public profile and campaigning skill it is possible to come out of the political desert
Initially, Trump was strongly opposed by the Republican political establishment. Yet in the end he triumphed. Why?
A very sizeable minority of Americans put their trust in him as an individual rather than as a Republican
His slogan ‘Make America Great Again’ drew huge attention to him
What other duties are congressional and state candidates expected to have?
Military service (patriotism)
Success in chosen profession.
Family and faith (nuclear family and traditional values)
Who said ‘Washington is full of big spenders. Let’s make them squeal’ - in reference to pork barrelling?
Senator Joni Ernst 2014 - went on to win the 2020 re-election
What is getting the ‘right’ people to turn out and vote?
Getting the core and most ideological voters to turn out
What did Reps do in 2004 to try and get White Evangelicals to turn out and vote for them?
They ran a national campaign promoting state ballot measures banning same-sex marriage
How does ‘Get rid of the vote’ also play a part?
Parties looking to discourage certain groups from voting
Explains tight ID laws in conservative states
Less use of postal voting by Reps aiming to discourage younger or lower-paid workers from turning out
In 2017 Indiana passed a law allowing states to purge voters from the rolls without notifying them- however this was overruled by the Court as it violated the NVRA (1993)
Trump claiming the election was ‘stolen’ yet investigations show no evidence that this was the case
What is the swing movement?
Focusing on swing states such as Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia)
What fraction of campaign events in the 2016 presidential race were held in just 6 swing states according to Nationalpopularvote.com?
2/3
By contrast, what states are emphasised during primaries and caucuses?
Those at the start of the calendar ie Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina
Also ‘Super Tuesday’ held on 6 March 2024 where Trump won 14 out of 15 super tuesday states and Biden won all 15
‘Money, money, money’: How much did the 2020 election cost? How much did Sanders spend vs Biden by March?
Total price tag for 2020 elections was $14 billion - $7 billion spent on Senate and House races
$170 million, almost double what Biden had raised - much of Sanders came from separate donations (showing it is not always elitist)
What is midterm blues w/o limits?
Midterms being an important indicator of public confidence in the president’s performance 2 years in
Most president’s party loses ground at this stage due promises they made that they could not keep
Often loses control of one chamber (Biden with the House in 2022) or both (Obama lost the House in 2010 then Senate in 2014)
Case study: The 2018 midterms: What was so significant about the Democrats gaining the House?
They could launch impeachment proceedings into Trump, as well as other areas of the Trump administration (e.g. Roger Stone)
How did the 2018 midterms show incumbency is sometimes more important than party affiliation?
West Virginia, the most pro-Trump state in 2016, re-elected Democrat senator Joe Manchin
How many incumbents were re-elected in the 2022 midterms?
House - 94.5%
Senate - 100%! (first time since 1914 no senator has lost their re-election bid)
What was the turnout in the 2018 midterms vs 2014?
49% vs 37%
What was the turnout in the 2016 presidential election v 2020?
60.1% vs 66.1% of those eligible to vote (240 million)
Since 2000 what had the average turnout for primaries been?
27% (much lower than general elections)
When did primaries emerge?
the ‘Progressive era’ at the turn of the 20th century
It represented a desire to break away from the ‘smoke filled’ rooms where many candidates were selected
Before then primaries were rarer, optional and more ‘beauty contests’
How many states still used caucuses for the Dem P elections in 2020, and which ones?
4
Iowa, Nevada, North Dakota and Wyoming
What 3 states recently changed to primaries for the 2020 p election?
Kansas, Maine and Hawaii
How many states are using caucuses in 2024?
4 - Iowa, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wyoming
Who entered and won the West Virginia Democrat primary in 1960 which proved a Catholic candidate could win a protestant state?
John F Kennedy
Key features of primaries and caucuses:
- Purpose is to vote for delegates who will go on to vote for a particular candidate at their national nominating convention
- Primaries are also used to select party candidates for state and congressional elections
- Presidents facing re-election bids rarely face opposition (true for Trump and Obama)
- Turnout is often low (27%) and consists largely of the party’s core ideological supporters
- Debates between candidates are often ruthless (Trump ‘Cry baby Rubio’ and ‘Lying Ted’) - watching a debate you’d forget the candidates are from the same party!
- Varies from state to state: Open (Georgia), closed (Oregon and New York) or semi-open/closed
- Timings !!! Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina are the only states that can hold them in February , Super Tuesday (15 states on 6th March 2024) - between them awarded over a third of delegates
- Invisible primaries - TV airtime, profile raising, ‘was chest’ of political donations
- Many candidates do not even make it to Iowa and drop out before
- Democrats still have ‘super delegates’ who vote at the national nominating committee (an unelected delegate free to support whoever they want)
The 2020 Democrat primaries case study:
Began with 29 candidates and no clear frontrunner
Record 6 women
Pete Buttigieg (first openly gay runner)
Bernie Sanders v Biden
Kamala Harris ran for president
2 billionaires including Michael Bloomberg
For many, the heart told
them to go for a liberal progressive candidate (Sanders) who would confront the political and business establishment- a liberal populist to take on the conservative populist Trump!
But the democratic ‘head’ ended up going with a more moderate candidate and a political insider - better chance at attracting blue-collar states such as Michigan
Biden initially performed poorly and came 4th in Iowa - he picked up pace again when he was endorsed by South Carolina AA Congressman Jim Clyburn, the most powerful Democrat in the state
He was also endorsed by Buttigieg and Harris as thus dropped out of the race
Biden then won 10 out of 14 super tuesday contests
Despite the initial diversity, the race ended with 2 males in their 70s - surprise much?
There were issues with the Iowa caucus too (see page 418) - tallying on the app
What are the main advantages of the primary/caucus system?
It boosts opportunity for ordinary political participation
Allows political outsiders to run for office ie Trump
In a democracy surely it’s better to ‘let the people choose’ than leave it to the party hacks and political establishment?
They effectively ‘road test’ candidates’ qualities for office (fundraising ability, media presence, stamina etc)
Staggered length allows a wide range of states to influence the outcome, especially as larger states such as New York tend to vote later
Caucuses provide an opportunity for ordinary voters to discuss their relative merits and weaknesses of candidates
What are the main disadvantages of the primary/caucus system?
It increases the focus on candidates as opposed to party or policies, and exacerbates divisions and divides within parties (Bill Clinton and Bernie Sanders in 2016) - many debates are heated and personal
Outsiders often lack DC connections and experience necessary for such a demanding job - insiders tend to win e.g. Biden in 2020
In a March 2016 PEW Research Centre Poll, just 35% of voters said primaries are a good way of selecting the best-qualified nominees
Turnout is usually low (27%) especially for caucuses (because they are lengthy)
Fellow political professionals are better placed to understand the candidates’ true qualities, qualities other than campaigning! The public are bombarded with political ads and campaign slogans which may present a distorted picture of the candidate
Primaries add to the overall cost and length of campaigns and increase ‘voter fatigue’
Too much importance is placed in the first 4 states in Feb who are demographically untypical of the wider USA (e.g. Iowa is predominantly white)
Caucus meetings lack voter secrecy + involve lengthy commitment - not suitable to the modern age of politics! 2020 Iowa caucus proved a fiasco
However there is large debate as to what would replace primaries and caucuses. What are the 3 suggested replacements?
- A single national primary election on one day- would remove the federal aspect, disadvantage smaller states and relatively unknown candidates seeking to build up momentum and endorsements over time
- Rotating regional primaries where the country is divided into 4 regions and each region takes turns of holding their elections on the same day - could also prove problems as candidates with strong support in a particular region might gain a clear advantage
- The Delaware Plan - would allow small states to go first followed by larger states (based on population size)
What are National nominating conventions?
The formal ‘coronation’ of the successful party’s candidate
They often take place in swing states held in July/August
2020 Democratic convention took place in a swing state Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a state narrowly won by Trump in 2016
In theory, conventions could still play a key role in choosing the candidate, although usually the results of the preceding primaries/caucuses mean that the delegate vote is a foregone conclusion
If no candidate has an overall majority a ‘brokered convention’ (failure to nominate a candidate on the first ballot) occurs - but this hasn’t happened since 1984 - Dem Walter Mondale still won !
What 3 roles does the convention fulfil?
- It is a chance to unite a divided party as former rivals line up to endorse and congratulate the eventual winner - atmosphere is like a rally
- It gives momentum to the candidate’s campaign via publicity and gives them a chance to outline their main policy themes - most conventions are followed by a boost in poll ratings (but wasn’t the case in 2020)
- If marks the formal beginning of the presidential campaign
What is the Electoral College?
The group of 538 people who elect the US president
Is set out in the Constitution
What does the existence of the EC reflect?
The founding fathers’ fears concerning a mass popular vote - also because at that time there was no mass media or swift transport so the presidential candidate wouldn’t have been known to many
The idea was that people would elect voters on a state by state basis who would then vote on their behalf.
This was almost a radical approach, as the delegates were wading into uncharted territory as at the time of the Philadelphia convention no other country in the world….
directly elected its chief executive
What are the main features of today’s Electoral College?
• The number of electors per state is equivalent to the overall size of their congressional delegation - it will always be a minimum of 3 (including Alaska and Wyoming) Cali has 55
• Washington DC has 3 ECVs
• Nearly all states vote on a winner-takes-all basis, apart from Maine and Nebraska who use the congressional district method (the winner of each district is awarded 1 ECV and the remaining 2 go by the statewide vote) is Biden won 1 ECV from Nebraska’s 2nd district- this is a much more proportional method
• The electors are real people, chosen from among the local party faithful (e.g. Bill and Hillary Clinton were 2 of New York’s state electors/delegates in 2020) - there can be ‘faithless electors’ who vote in different ways to the state (record 7 in 2016) - why take the risk ????
• Winner of the national popular vote may lose in the electoral college! Happened in 2000 and 2016 - last time before that was 1888
•The final result can in reality hang in just a few thousand votes - although Biden won clearly by 306-232 electoral college votes, this was down to some very slender victories in a handful of states (e.g. had Trump won 67k more in Pennsylvania, 25k more in Georgia and 20k more in Wisconsin) he would have won the Electoral College by 278-260 but lost the popular vote by over 5.5 million!
•Potential for stalemate if no candidate has an outright majority but hasn’t happened since 1824 (would require third parties or independents to win some ECVs, which is unlikely)- in this case the House would choose the P and Senate the VP
In 1968 segregationist ex-Democrat George Wallace, leader of AIP, won 5 states in the deep south and 46 ECVs - even then Nixon won
Should the Electoral College be abolished? Yes:
The winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected president (2000 + 2016)
Frequently exaggerates margins of victory - in 1984 Ronald Reagan won just under 59% of the popular vote but over 97% of ECVs
Smaller states are overrepresented (Cali has 1 electoral vote per 712,000 people while Wyoming has 1 per 195,000)
It was drawn up by the Founding Fathers in a very different era politically, when the USA was much smaller and less diverse
It encourages candidates to focus all their campaigning on a small number of swing states such as Florida and Ohio
Faithless electors - record number of 10 deviant votes
The Electoral College depresses turnout, especially in safe states as most take a winner takes all basis - many wasted votes
Polls suggest Americans want to replace it! - 61% supported abolition
It discriminates against independents/third parties
Trump tweeted in 2012 “The electoral college is disaster for a democracy” - despite him only winning because of it🤣
Should the Electoral College be abolished? No:
If normally delivers the ‘right’ results e.g. in 2020
The Electoral College reflects the federal nature of the USA and ensures candidates have to campaign in a range of states, not simply the most populated
No superior method has gained widespread and bipartisan support - alternatives have their own problem
A nationwide popular vote would lead candidates to focus instead just on large urban areas - ‘Go hunting where the ducks are’
At least 32 states have passed laws that require electors to vote as pledged (SC 2020 ruled in favour of these laws)- in some of these states rogue electors can be replaced or fined
Faithless electors have never affected the final election outcome - also, the issue can be resolved by passing laws requiring electors to vote for their pledged candidate - no faithless electors in 2008, 2012 or 2020
Laws could be passed to award electors proportionally in each state without need to abolish the EC - a proportional system could boost turnout ! Reform perhaps 🤔
Much of support for reform comes from ‘bad losers’ - most Americans would prioritise other reforms such as greater regulation of campaign finance
It produces a clear winner - the presidency cannot be shared out proportionally - also no chance of a runoff election (2000 with Florida the issue was confined to the state)
Trump then tweeted in 2016 “The Electoral College is actually genius in that it brings all states, including the smaller ones, into play. Campaigning is much different!”
Why has the electoral college not yet been abolished?
Practicality - would need a constitutional amendment - smaller states would almost definitely veto
Agreeing a better alternative:
popular vote? - but would lead to candidates focusing on populated urban areas
Maine’s ranked-choice system? - could incentivise more gerrymandering
What is the synoptic link between faithless electors and the Supreme Court?
In July 2020 the SC unanimously decided that states can punish members of the Electoral College who break a pledge to vote for a state’s popular vote winner in presidential elections
What was the final reform mooted in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact?
A reform where states pledge to cast their Electoral College votes to whichever candidate wins the national popular vote
By March 2021 15 states plus DC, representing 196 ECVs or 36% of the total college, has signed up - interestingly, no traditionally ‘red states’ are among those who have signed up to date
What are the 6 key factors that affect the outcome of US elections?
- Incumbency
- Issues
- Media
- Leadership + qualities
- Voter profile
- Money
Incumbency rate 2022, and he benefits of being an incumbent:
House - 94.5%
Senate - 100%
2018 average was 90.5%
Higher level of name recognition
Can boast of past achievements
Have a donor base - ‘war chests’
President level incumbency also helps (most presidents since 1945 have served 2-year terms)
