US Electoral process and direct democracy Flashcards
What are the 4 main elections in the USA?
- Presidential elections
- Congressional elections
- Primaries (and rarely caucuses)
- Direct democracy (ballot initiatives, referendums and recall elections)
What are the timings of elections for the president? Congress?
President every 4 years in November with the formal inauguration in Jan
Congressional elections every 2 years with while of the House and 1/3 of the Senate up for election
Who controversially went to the polls in April 2020 at the height of the pandemic for its primaries and local elections?
Wisconsin
What federal laws in elections apply across the whole of the US?
Polling stations must be accessible to people with disabilities and there must be no racial or gender discrimination
However, what roles do states play?
They can gerrymander
Individual states have more leeway in areas such as Voter ID laws and how primary elections are organised
What impacts do parties have?
They determine the procedure for awarding delegates to the national nominating conventions
In 2020 which Green Party candidate did not appear on the ballot in 21 states, being a write-in in 17 and no opportunity to vote Green in 4?
Howie Hawkins
In practice, nearly all US elections employ a…
majoritarian electoral system
However there are some variations (apart from for the Electoral College)
Give an example:
Since 2018 Maine has used a ranked-choice voting system similar to STV, for congressional and local elections - the 2018 midterms saw one House district (2nd) not being won by the candidate who won the most first preference votes
Which state’s election laws require a top-two election for its Senate seat (meaning if a candidate fails to get over 50% of the vote a runoff election will take place 8 weeks later between the top 2 candidates)?
Georgia - happened in 2020
Which state has a non-partisan blanket primary law where any top 2 candidates go head to head regardless of party affiliation, and then go head to head in the actual Senate election?
California - 2018 only Dems in the race
How are the number of delegates decided for states?
All states + DC have at least 3 delegates (2 senators 1 House member)
Each state received an allocation of ECVs equivalent to the size of their congressional delegation
Who has the largest number of delegates and who the lowest?
California (55) - they have 5
Washington DC has no voting members of Congress but the 21st Amendment (1961) gave it 3
Recounted every 10 years based on the national consensus (so states who have a growth in population get more ECVs and vice versa - happened to Texas in 2010 who gained 4 ECVs)
Why is a vote in Alaska of 3 times the importance of a vote in California?
Because California receives 1 electoral college votes for every 727,000 votes while Alaska receives 3 electoral college votes for every 730,000!
Smaller states are favoured over larger ones
What are the strengths of the US electoral system?
A huge number of elections and elected offices offer many opportunities for political participation
A majoritarian system used in most of the USA usually gives a clear result and single-party control of legislative chambers
The electoral system reflects the federal nature of the US government with individual states having much discretion over aspects of elections
Primaries and caucuses enable ordinary voters to play the key role in selecting candidates for political parties
The EC again reinforces the federal nature of the USA and ensures smaller states are not overlooked
What are the weaknesses of the US electoral system?
Voter fatigue - apathy and cynicism
Favours a two-party system where independents and 3rd parties are locked out
Two parties often control one chamber each of Congress or a state legislature which makes deadlock more common
Electoral manipulation through gerrymandering and voter ID laws in individual states
Primaries and caucuses increase the length and cost of elections, also encouraging party divides
Electoral distortion via the Electoral College which can considerably exaggerate the power of smaller states
What are the 6 characteristics of US election campaigns?
- Frequency
- Individuality
- Getting the ‘right’ people to turn out
- The swing movement
- ‘Money, money, money’
- Midterm blues w/o limits
Frequency:
Invisible primaries
Voter fatigue
Presidents and congressional candidates are pretty much CONSTANTLY CAMPAIGNING
Economy is seen as crucial to a president’s re-election bid, hence why Trump did NOT want to promote a national lockdown
Individuality:
US election campaign are
up to the individual
Party allegiance often isn’t mentioned
Raising campaigns via placards, publicity and political ads on social media and TV
While state and national parties play an important role in channelling finances and directing donors
But as Trump’s victory showed with enough money, public profile and campaigning skill it is possible to come out of the political desert
Initially, Trump was strongly opposed by the Republican political establishment. Yet in the end he triumphed. Why?
A very sizeable minority of Americans put their trust in him as an individual rather than as a Republican
His slogan ‘Make America Great Again’ drew huge attention to him
What other duties are congressional and state candidates expected to have?
Military service (patriotism)
Success in chosen profession.
Family and faith (nuclear family and traditional values)
Who said ‘Washington is full of big spenders. Let’s make them squeal’ - in reference to pork barrelling?
Senator Joni Ernst 2014 - went on to win the 2020 re-election
What is getting the ‘right’ people to turn out and vote?
Getting the core and most ideological voters to turn out
What did Reps do in 2004 to try and get White Evangelicals to turn out and vote for them?
They ran a national campaign promoting state ballot measures banning same-sex marriage
How does ‘Get rid of the vote’ also play a part?
Parties looking to discourage certain groups from voting
Explains tight ID laws in conservative states
Less use of postal voting by Reps aiming to discourage younger or lower-paid workers from turning out
In 2017 Indiana passed a law allowing states to purge voters from the rolls without notifying them- however this was overruled by the Court as it violated the NVRA (1993)
Trump claiming the election was ‘stolen’ yet investigations show no evidence that this was the case
What is the swing movement?
Focusing on swing states such as Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia)
What fraction of campaign events in the 2016 presidential race were held in just 6 swing states according to Nationalpopularvote.com?
2/3
By contrast, what states are emphasised during primaries and caucuses?
Those at the start of the calendar ie Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina
Also ‘Super Tuesday’ held on 6 March 2024 where Trump won 14 out of 15 super tuesday states and Biden won all 15
‘Money, money, money’: How much did the 2020 election cost? How much did Sanders spend vs Biden by March?
Total price tag for 2020 elections was $14 billion - $7 billion spent on Senate and House races
$170 million, almost double what Biden had raised - much of Sanders came from separate donations (showing it is not always elitist)
What is midterm blues w/o limits?
Midterms being an important indicator of public confidence in the president’s performance 2 years in
Most president’s party loses ground at this stage due promises they made that they could not keep
Often loses control of one chamber (Biden with the House in 2022) or both (Obama lost the House in 2010 then Senate in 2014)
Case study: The 2018 midterms: What was so significant about the Democrats gaining the House?
They could launch impeachment proceedings into Trump, as well as other areas of the Trump administration (e.g. Roger Stone)
How did the 2018 midterms show incumbency is sometimes more important than party affiliation?
West Virginia, the most pro-Trump state in 2016, re-elected Democrat senator Joe Manchin
How many incumbents were re-elected in the 2022 midterms?
House - 94.5%
Senate - 100%! (first time since 1914 no senator has lost their re-election bid)
What was the turnout in the 2018 midterms vs 2014?
49% vs 37%
What was the turnout in the 2016 presidential election v 2020?
60.1% vs 66.1% of those eligible to vote (240 million)
Since 2000 what had the average turnout for primaries been?
27% (much lower than general elections)
When did primaries emerge?
the ‘Progressive era’ at the turn of the 20th century
It represented a desire to break away from the ‘smoke filled’ rooms where many candidates were selected
Before then primaries were rarer, optional and more ‘beauty contests’
How many states still used caucuses for the Dem P elections in 2020, and which ones?
4
Iowa, Nevada, North Dakota and Wyoming
What 3 states recently changed to primaries for the 2020 p election?
Kansas, Maine and Hawaii
How many states are using caucuses in 2024?
4 - Iowa, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wyoming
Who entered and won the West Virginia Democrat primary in 1960 which proved a Catholic candidate could win a protestant state?
John F Kennedy
Key features of primaries and caucuses:
- Purpose is to vote for delegates who will go on to vote for a particular candidate at their national nominating convention
- Primaries are also used to select party candidates for state and congressional elections
- Presidents facing re-election bids rarely face opposition (true for Trump and Obama)
- Turnout is often low (27%) and consists largely of the party’s core ideological supporters
- Debates between candidates are often ruthless (Trump ‘Cry baby Rubio’ and ‘Lying Ted’) - watching a debate you’d forget the candidates are from the same party!
- Varies from state to state: Open (Georgia), closed (Oregon and New York) or semi-open/closed
- Timings !!! Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina are the only states that can hold them in February , Super Tuesday (15 states on 6th March 2024) - between them awarded over a third of delegates
- Invisible primaries - TV airtime, profile raising, ‘was chest’ of political donations
- Many candidates do not even make it to Iowa and drop out before
- Democrats still have ‘super delegates’ who vote at the national nominating committee (an unelected delegate free to support whoever they want)
The 2020 Democrat primaries case study:
Began with 29 candidates and no clear frontrunner
Record 6 women
Pete Buttigieg (first openly gay runner)
Bernie Sanders v Biden
Kamala Harris ran for president
2 billionaires including Michael Bloomberg
For many, the heart told
them to go for a liberal progressive candidate (Sanders) who would confront the political and business establishment- a liberal populist to take on the conservative populist Trump!
But the democratic ‘head’ ended up going with a more moderate candidate and a political insider - better chance at attracting blue-collar states such as Michigan
Biden initially performed poorly and came 4th in Iowa - he picked up pace again when he was endorsed by South Carolina AA Congressman Jim Clyburn, the most powerful Democrat in the state
He was also endorsed by Buttigieg and Harris as thus dropped out of the race
Biden then won 10 out of 14 super tuesday contests
Despite the initial diversity, the race ended with 2 males in their 70s - surprise much?
There were issues with the Iowa caucus too (see page 418) - tallying on the app
What are the main advantages of the primary/caucus system?
It boosts opportunity for ordinary political participation
Allows political outsiders to run for office ie Trump
In a democracy surely it’s better to ‘let the people choose’ than leave it to the party hacks and political establishment?
They effectively ‘road test’ candidates’ qualities for office (fundraising ability, media presence, stamina etc)
Staggered length allows a wide range of states to influence the outcome, especially as larger states such as New York tend to vote later
Caucuses provide an opportunity for ordinary voters to discuss their relative merits and weaknesses of candidates
What are the main disadvantages of the primary/caucus system?
It increases the focus on candidates as opposed to party or policies, and exacerbates divisions and divides within parties (Bill Clinton and Bernie Sanders in 2016) - many debates are heated and personal
Outsiders often lack DC connections and experience necessary for such a demanding job - insiders tend to win e.g. Biden in 2020
In a March 2016 PEW Research Centre Poll, just 35% of voters said primaries are a good way of selecting the best-qualified nominees
Turnout is usually low (27%) especially for caucuses (because they are lengthy)
Fellow political professionals are better placed to understand the candidates’ true qualities, qualities other than campaigning! The public are bombarded with political ads and campaign slogans which may present a distorted picture of the candidate
Primaries add to the overall cost and length of campaigns and increase ‘voter fatigue’
Too much importance is placed in the first 4 states in Feb who are demographically untypical of the wider USA (e.g. Iowa is predominantly white)
Caucus meetings lack voter secrecy + involve lengthy commitment - not suitable to the modern age of politics! 2020 Iowa caucus proved a fiasco
However there is large debate as to what would replace primaries and caucuses. What are the 3 suggested replacements?
- A single national primary election on one day- would remove the federal aspect, disadvantage smaller states and relatively unknown candidates seeking to build up momentum and endorsements over time
- Rotating regional primaries where the country is divided into 4 regions and each region takes turns of holding their elections on the same day - could also prove problems as candidates with strong support in a particular region might gain a clear advantage
- The Delaware Plan - would allow small states to go first followed by larger states (based on population size)
What are National nominating conventions?
The formal ‘coronation’ of the successful party’s candidate
They often take place in swing states held in July/August
2020 Democratic convention took place in a swing state Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a state narrowly won by Trump in 2016
In theory, conventions could still play a key role in choosing the candidate, although usually the results of the preceding primaries/caucuses mean that the delegate vote is a foregone conclusion
If no candidate has an overall majority a ‘brokered convention’ (failure to nominate a candidate on the first ballot) occurs - but this hasn’t happened since 1984 - Dem Walter Mondale still won !
What 3 roles does the convention fulfil?
- It is a chance to unite a divided party as former rivals line up to endorse and congratulate the eventual winner - atmosphere is like a rally
- It gives momentum to the candidate’s campaign via publicity and gives them a chance to outline their main policy themes - most conventions are followed by a boost in poll ratings (but wasn’t the case in 2020)
- If marks the formal beginning of the presidential campaign
What is the Electoral College?
The group of 538 people who elect the US president
Is set out in the Constitution
What does the existence of the EC reflect?
The founding fathers’ fears concerning a mass popular vote - also because at that time there was no mass media or swift transport so the presidential candidate wouldn’t have been known to many
The idea was that people would elect voters on a state by state basis who would then vote on their behalf.
This was almost a radical approach, as the delegates were wading into uncharted territory as at the time of the Philadelphia convention no other country in the world….
directly elected its chief executive
What are the main features of today’s Electoral College?
• The number of electors per state is equivalent to the overall size of their congressional delegation - it will always be a minimum of 3 (including Alaska and Wyoming) Cali has 55
• Washington DC has 3 ECVs
• Nearly all states vote on a winner-takes-all basis, apart from Maine and Nebraska who use the congressional district method (the winner of each district is awarded 1 ECV and the remaining 2 go by the statewide vote) is Biden won 1 ECV from Nebraska’s 2nd district- this is a much more proportional method
• The electors are real people, chosen from among the local party faithful (e.g. Bill and Hillary Clinton were 2 of New York’s state electors/delegates in 2020) - there can be ‘faithless electors’ who vote in different ways to the state (record 7 in 2016) - why take the risk ????
• Winner of the national popular vote may lose in the electoral college! Happened in 2000 and 2016 - last time before that was 1888
•The final result can in reality hang in just a few thousand votes - although Biden won clearly by 306-232 electoral college votes, this was down to some very slender victories in a handful of states (e.g. had Trump won 67k more in Pennsylvania, 25k more in Georgia and 20k more in Wisconsin) he would have won the Electoral College by 278-260 but lost the popular vote by over 5.5 million!
•Potential for stalemate if no candidate has an outright majority but hasn’t happened since 1824 (would require third parties or independents to win some ECVs, which is unlikely)- in this case the House would choose the P and Senate the VP
In 1968 segregationist ex-Democrat George Wallace, leader of AIP, won 5 states in the deep south and 46 ECVs - even then Nixon won
Should the Electoral College be abolished? Yes:
The winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected president (2000 + 2016)
Frequently exaggerates margins of victory - in 1984 Ronald Reagan won just under 59% of the popular vote but over 97% of ECVs
Smaller states are overrepresented (Cali has 1 electoral vote per 712,000 people while Wyoming has 1 per 195,000)
It was drawn up by the Founding Fathers in a very different era politically, when the USA was much smaller and less diverse
It encourages candidates to focus all their campaigning on a small number of swing states such as Florida and Ohio
Faithless electors - record number of 10 deviant votes
The Electoral College depresses turnout, especially in safe states as most take a winner takes all basis - many wasted votes
Polls suggest Americans want to replace it! - 61% supported abolition
It discriminates against independents/third parties
Trump tweeted in 2012 “The electoral college is disaster for a democracy” - despite him only winning because of it🤣
Should the Electoral College be abolished? No:
If normally delivers the ‘right’ results e.g. in 2020
The Electoral College reflects the federal nature of the USA and ensures candidates have to campaign in a range of states, not simply the most populated
No superior method has gained widespread and bipartisan support - alternatives have their own problem
A nationwide popular vote would lead candidates to focus instead just on large urban areas - ‘Go hunting where the ducks are’
At least 32 states have passed laws that require electors to vote as pledged (SC 2020 ruled in favour of these laws)- in some of these states rogue electors can be replaced or fined
Faithless electors have never affected the final election outcome - also, the issue can be resolved by passing laws requiring electors to vote for their pledged candidate - no faithless electors in 2008, 2012 or 2020
Laws could be passed to award electors proportionally in each state without need to abolish the EC - a proportional system could boost turnout ! Reform perhaps 🤔
Much of support for reform comes from ‘bad losers’ - most Americans would prioritise other reforms such as greater regulation of campaign finance
It produces a clear winner - the presidency cannot be shared out proportionally - also no chance of a runoff election (2000 with Florida the issue was confined to the state)
Trump then tweeted in 2016 “The Electoral College is actually genius in that it brings all states, including the smaller ones, into play. Campaigning is much different!”
Why has the electoral college not yet been abolished?
Practicality - would need a constitutional amendment - smaller states would almost definitely veto
Agreeing a better alternative:
popular vote? - but would lead to candidates focusing on populated urban areas
Maine’s ranked-choice system? - could incentivise more gerrymandering
What is the synoptic link between faithless electors and the Supreme Court?
In July 2020 the SC unanimously decided that states can punish members of the Electoral College who break a pledge to vote for a state’s popular vote winner in presidential elections
What was the final reform mooted in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact?
A reform where states pledge to cast their Electoral College votes to whichever candidate wins the national popular vote
By March 2021 15 states plus DC, representing 196 ECVs or 36% of the total college, has signed up - interestingly, no traditionally ‘red states’ are among those who have signed up to date
What are the 6 key factors that affect the outcome of US elections?
- Incumbency
- Issues
- Media
- Leadership + qualities
- Voter profile
- Money
Incumbency rate 2022, and he benefits of being an incumbent:
House - 94.5%
Senate - 100%
2018 average was 90.5%
Higher level of name recognition
Can boast of past achievements
Have a donor base - ‘war chests’
President level incumbency also helps (most presidents since 1945 have served 2-year terms)
In 2018 which tight Senate race candidate in Florida saw a total of $118 million of campaign spending on him? What did this show?
Incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson - showed money + incumbency doesn’t always guarantee re-election
Give a high-profile Electoral College voter as of 2020:
Hillary Clinton (and her hubby Bill!)
What issues can arise? Give examples:
Policy issues, competence and handling crises and the ‘October surprise’
• Policy issues —> Clinton won by attacking the incumbent president’s economic record (George H.W Bush) - lower taxes and low unemployment majorly help a president , while the reverse is equally true
• Competence and surety to handle crises at home and abroad—> e.g. Bush response to 9/11 brought the USA together and brought his approval ratings up to 90% - however, his handling of hurricane Katrina 2005 was seen as highly inadequate and late - opinion polls slumped to 38%
• The ‘October Surprise’ —> A news event which is either deliberately timed or spontaneously sprang on the presidential candidates before the polls open in early November - 2016 Trump’s October Surprise saw the infamous ‘Hollywood Access’ tape recording from 2005 emerge where he made vulgar comments about women - Trump said it was simply ‘locker room banter…Bill Clinton has said far worse to me on the golf course’
Few days later Hillary Clinton was faced with accusations that she had used a private email server when serving as secretary of state - was investigated by the FBI
Significance is hard to gauge
What did one white evangelical female voter say about Trump?
That she was looking ‘for a bodyguard, not a husband’
What 4 ways does the media affect presidential elections?
- Political ads
- TV debates
- Social media
- Mainstream media
Political ads: What was the name of Obama’s 30 second campaign ad? What did it show and who did it attack?
‘Remember’ - it began by lauding Obama’s record in raising US oil production whilst also promoting renewable energy and closing tax loopholes for oil companies
It attacked his opponent Mitt Romney for being in the ‘pocket’ of wealthy oil companies
What was the name of Biden’s 1 minute ad in 2024 and what did he say in it?
‘For you’
He takes about how he led the country through the COVID crisis, strongest economy in the world, passed a law that lowered prescription drug prices, passed the biggest law to combat climate change
Biden pointed out how Trump failed to pass an infrastructure law - he said ‘I got it done!’
How did Nixon present himself physically vs Kennedy in a 1960 TV debate?
Nixon refused to have his face made up and so looked pale, pasty and sweaty, while Kennedy appeared tanned-looking and healthy
Those who watched the debate thought Kennedy had won, while those listening on the radio thought the winner was Nixon - shows the impact of public image !!!
How many people watched the Biden-Trump debate in 2020?
73 million (3rd most viewed TV debate)
How is social media used?
Tweets, facebook, posts
People retweeting candidates
Can air their views without much of a filter
What mainstream media channels are Republican and which are Democrat?
Rep - Fox News
Dem - MSNBC + CNN
Right wing press leaps on news surrounding Clinton’s email servers and Joe Biden’s brother scandal, while left wing press jumped on Trump’s verbal indiscretions and impeachments
Leadership and other individual qualities of candidates: There is often a focus on the individual at the expense of the party.
Whose slogan was ‘Build Back Better’, an economic infrastructure package?
Biden in 2020
Who is Biden trying to attract with his moderate/centrist approach and slogan ‘Finish the job’ in 2024?
Moderate Republicans
How many Twitter followers did Trump have in 2020, and how many tweets had he posted?
42 million followers
42,000 tweets
By contrast, how many followers did the GOP have on Twitter?
Under 2.4 million
How many followers does Biden have on Twitter (X) vs Trump in 2024?
Biden - 38 million
Trump - 87.3 million
How are the expected qualities paradoxical?
Presidents are expected to be principled yet pragmatic, compassionate yet prepared to make tough decisions, calm and clear-headed during a crisis yet also consultative and urgent in their actions
Candidates who stress family values put themselves at risk if marital affairs or accusations of sexual assault emerge
In the wake of #___ a number of Democrat and Republican lawmakers saw their careers ended
MeToo
What voter profile factors contribute to voting behaviour?
Gender, race, age, religion, education and geography, as well as self-identification as conservative, liberal or centrist
Money: How much did Trump spend from his personal money on the 2016 campaign?
$66 million (total of $94 million vs Clinton’s total spend of $132 million)
What 2 main factors affect the way in which Americans vote?
- Voter profile (primacy factor)
- Issues, candidate personality and how effectively they are marketed (recency factors)
In 2020 what percentage of registered voters who supported Biden said the outbreak would be ‘very important’ to their vote, while only 24% of registered voters who supported Trump said the same?
82%
Voter profile and the 2020 campaign:
Race: What percentage of African Americans voted Democrat? Hispanics? Asian-Americans?
87%
65%
61%
What percentage of women voted for Biden?
57%
What percentage of white evangelicals supported Trump?
76%
What percentage of atheists/no religion voted Biden?
65%
Surprisingly, wealth/class is less of a dividing factor. What percentage of those earning over $100k pa voted for Trump?
What percentage of those earning under 50k voted Biden?
54%
55%
Give 2 poorer states where lots of support from white voters goes towards Republicans:
Mississippi and West Virginia
What percentage of under 30s vote Democrat?
60%
What percentage of liberals backed Biden and conservatives backed Trump?
Liberals - 89%
Conservatives - 85%
How many LGBTQ+ 🏳️🌈 voted Biden?
64%
What percentage of those living in towns/cities with a population of over 50,000 voted Biden?
60% vs 57% backing Trump in rural areas
When were the last 2 main realignment elections in the US since 1945?
- The realignment of the conservative white vote in the South away from the Democrats and towards the republicans - the ‘Southern Strategy’ most associated with Nixon and Barry Goldwater in their campaigns in 1964, 68 and 72 - replaced with a new Republican ‘Solid South’
The Southern strategy targeted conservative white southerners who felt betrayed by the Democratic Party’s support of civil rights
Reps didn’t promise a return to segregation but emphasised states’ rights (known as dog whistle politics)
- The switch of western and eastern coastal areas from Rep to Dem (e.g. Vermont)
Case study: The 1932 election summary
30 years prior to the election the Reps had been the dominant party
Reps had a clean sweep across all states outside of the Democratic ‘Solid South’
Wall Street Crash 1929 hit the USA and took the Republicans and their ‘laissez-fairs’ economics with them - Hoover failed to deal with the Great Depression effectively which led to mass unemployment
Roosevelt was nominated after handling things in New York where he was governor
There was a HUGEEEEEE change between 1928 and 1932 - 1928 Reps / Hoover won nearly all states and far more ECVs, while the Democrats did the same in 1932!
Why? Because Roosevelt promised the ‘New Deal’ and Hoover was highly unpopular
Roosevelt build the ‘New Deal Coalition’ combined of conservative southern protestants (Dixiecrats), northern Jews, Catholics and urban African-American population, labour union members, liberals and radicals
Allowed them to dominate politics into the 1960s
Between 1932 and 1968 Dems were in government (apart from Eisenhower) - for the most of this period the Dems had unified government
What led to the Democrats downfall?
Their support of the Civil Rights Movement (LBJ ‘signed away the South’)
Case study: 2016 election summary
Significant shifts in voting behaviour
May simply have reflected the personalities of the 2 candidates
Clinton seen as a political insider - limited her appeal among blue collar voters especially in the Rust Belt such as Ohio
vs
outsider businessman and reality star Trump
• Was viewed as a victory for populism
• Many previously loyal Democrat white blue-collar workers in Rust Belt states such as Ohio swung behind Trump attracted by his promises of more jobs and trade
• Revealed a growing gap between urban and multi-ethnic USA vs white rural USA
• However many voter blocs stayed the same since 2012 (white evangelicals for Trump despite his more pubic moral lapses including several affairs, and AAs continued to vote Democrat)
• THE MAIN CHANGE was among less-well educated white people in Upper Midwest states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio who decided to vote Trump (voting more like the South)
Trump spent $94 million in the last push for White House ($340 million altogether with $66 million own money ). vs. Clinton ($132 million and $581 million altogether)
$5 million spent by the Reps in last few days on digital advertising in Michigan , Pennsylvania and Florida (successful as Trump only won by a margin!)
Rust belt states are proving less reliable for ___ while Sun Belt seats look less reliable for ___
Democrats
Republicans
Traditional core voting groups: Why do White evangelical Christians vote Republican?
Pro-life
Pro-Israel
Promotion of traditional values especially in areas of LGBTQ+ rights
Why do gun owners vote Republican?
Defence of the 2nd amendment and opposition to gun-control measures
Why do African-Americans vote Democrat?
Continued support for civil rights, opposition to ‘voter suppression’ tactics such as voter ID laws, support for fair non-discriminatory policing (BM) and tackling poverty through federal programmes
Why do public sector labour unions vote Democrat?
Increasing minimum wage
Greater investment in public services such as education
Protection of workers’ rights in areas such as healthcare and pensions
Why do parties not take radical approaches? E.g. Obama introduced Affordable Care Act but did not introduce a national health insurance scheme. Why?
Costly and high impact on taxes
Because it would have caused much hostility from union groups that had negotiated good private healthcare deals with employers - Culinary Workers Union opposed Sanders’ ‘Medicare for All’
What is the Hispanic vote often referred to? Why?
The ‘sleeping giant’ because not all hispanics vote Democrat - e.g. 58% of Cuban-Americans identify as Republican in 2020
Campaign finance: The 2020 presidential election broke all records with a total campaign bill of just under _____
$14 billion
What was the cost of the 2016 election?
$6.5 billion
Despite not winning a single state, which candidate spent over $1 billion of his own vast personal fortune on campaign ads and staffing?
Michael Bloomberg
How much has Sanders spent by March 2020?
$170 million - double that of Biden
Where does the money go?
People and publicity
Professional campaigns need specialists such as political strategists and web designers
Need to open and staff offices across the nation
Thousands of miles of travel from state to state
Buying airtime for TV ads and ads on social media
How much money did Trump and Biden spend together on Facebook ads, and then TV ads?
$175 million
$750 million
Where does the money come from?
2020 election:
Small individual donations (22%)
Large individual donations (41%)
PACs (5%) - can only donate $5k per
Organisations (3%)
Self-funding (13%) - Trump $66 million in 2016 vs just $8,000 in 2020
Other /Super PACs (14%)
Must be disclosed to the FEC
No individual can donate more than ___
$2,800
But PACs can donate up to ___
$5,000 through hard money
What form is the largest bulk of money donated in?
Soft money (aka independent expenditure) - however does not go directly to the candidate - can be used to attack opponents
What is the name of the pro-Trump Super PAC?
Preserve America PAC
What percentage of those who Trump appointed to his administration were campaign donors?
38%
What is the least significant source of funding? Why?
Federal funding - Obama rejected the move in 2008 as he believed he could raise more money on his own
Neither Trump nor Biden accepted state funding in 2020
What is the McCain-Feingold
bill?
A bill that attempts to regulate the financing of political campaigns
Does money make a difference: Yes and No
Yes:
All winners have had some sort of funding
No:
The highest spending candidate won in only 4 out of the 10 most expensive 2020 Senate races - by contrast, incumbents won 7
Clinton lost to Trump despite outspending him
Who do ideological groups such as EMILY’s List and NRA support vs other less ideological interest groups?
Ideological groups channel funding to those who share their policy objectives
Others support the most likely winner and often spread funding between parties (e.g. the National Association of Realtors)
Give an example of a Rep candidate heavily outspending an incumbent Democrat but losing:
2020 7th District in Maryland saw Rep challenger Kimberly Klacik outspend incumbent Kweisi Mfume $4.8 million to $602,000 -
but the incumbent won! Securing over 72% of the vote
His seat was ‘not for sale’
How much more money do incumbent senators raise?
On average $22.2 million vs $3.7 million among non-incumbents
Should US finance be regulated? Yes:
Election expenditure has got out of control in recent years (2020 record year)
Emphasis on fundraising distracts elected representatives from doing their actual job! Especially true for the House
Cost of elections means only the personally wealthy or well-connected (Trump and Bloomberg) can really afford to get into politics and get anywhere - ELITIST
Business groups far outspend labour groups - PACs the margin is 7:1
SC decision in Citizens United v FEC (2010) has added to the problem - will need a constitutional amendment
Much non-disclosures / ‘dark money’ - 501 do not require the name of donors to be made to the public
Reforms are desperately needed to plug loopholes such as Super PACs, 527 and 501 groups
‘Buying’ votes in Congress
Matching funding has died out (only $1 million in 2016 compared to $240 million in 2000)
Should US campaign finance be regulated? No:
2016 saw slightly less spent than in 2008 and 2012 - campaign inflation is not continual
Campaign finance reform is unnecessary since candidates must in reality listen to a wide range of their voters and call town hall meetings to listen to their views - would be unwise to only listen to wealthy donors
Fundraising and political donations are a crucial part of the democratic process
Political donations are part of the free market
Those who are popular deserve more funding
SC upheld 1st amendment rights regarding freedom of political activity
SC upheld the BCRA / McCain-Feingold Act (2003)
Political dontions come with transparency and disclosure to the FEC - nearly all funding is traceable
Whatever reforms are passed, the wealthy will ALWAYS find loopholes ➰
Who said with the $14 billion spent the US could have ‘fixed climate change, fixed Iran and fixed the health service. All that money wasted’ 💰❌
A New York Times reader
What are the 3 forms direct democracy can take in the USA?
- Ballot initiatives
- Recall elections
- Referendums
Ballot initiatives/propositions example:
law or a measure proposed by voters - if enough signatures are collected they are placed on the ballot at election time
Legalisation of marijuana, same-sex marriage, expanding Medicaid and restoring voting rights to ex-felons
Most widely used
What is a recall election? Give an example:
When voters force an electorate official such as a mayor, judge or governed to face re-election before their full term has expired
In 2018 a California state judge, Aaron Persky, was successfully recalled due to his comments and the leniency of a sentence handed out to a a Stanford University student found guilty of sexual assault
When can referendums occur? Give an example:
When a state legislature passes a law but is then required to submit this directly to voters for approval (most constitutional amendments go to a referendum)
In 2018 78% of voters in Alabama supported an amendment allowing the display of the 10 commandments in state courthouses
Around half of states allow groups that can collect enough signatures the ability to demand a vote asking for an existing law to be vetoed
Unlike many other Western democracies, the USA only has direct democracy at __ level
state
There are NO national referendums
A lot of money goes towards high-profile ballot initiatives, again suggesting ___ and that a lot of power is with wealthy interest groups.
In 2020 $___ was spent on campaigning over direct democracy measures!
Give an example too 😊
elitism
$1.2 billion!
Over $220 million was spent on a single California ballot initiative alone to do with the rights of Uber drivers and whether they should be classified as employees of self-employed
How well does direct democracy work in the USA? Well:
It allows voters to have a direct say in framing laws - ‘purer’ form of democracy
It allows variation in laws between different types of states that reflect different political priorities
It improves accountability of state-level officials between elections
It adds an additional check and balance to state executives and legislatures between elections
It increases opportunity for political participation
PGs can get involved in decision-making e.g. NRA backed gun rights in Alabama 2014
Direct democracy is popular in the USA! There were 120 measures on ballots in 2020 including 13 in California alone
Raises ignored/low-profile issues
How well does direct democracy work in the USA? Not well:
It can lead to ‘tyranny of the majority’ (e.g. requiring driving tests to be only in English in Wyoming)
It can lead to inconsistencies and variations in law between states (e.g. with same-sex marriage law before Obergefell)
Is often used simply as a political tactic by ‘sore losers’ or those unhappy with specific policies
Undermines representative government
Many would argue there are enough checks and balances already as governors have a veto - increases more opportunity for stalemate and limits the ability of state governments to do their job properly
Promotes a ‘democratic overload’ and makes many ballots long and complicated, and so arguably depresses participation
Many would argues PGs already have TOO MUCH INFLUENCE
Adds to the cost of elections
Turnout is often low
Parties often exploit direct democracy to influence the outcome of other elections (ie in 2018 North Dakota Democrats used an initiative on the legalisation of cannabis to try and attract young voters and liberals to vote for incumbent Dem senator Heidi Heitkamp - Reps appealed to anti-immigrant instincts + introduce an initiative that would make it illegal for non-citizens to vote in North Dakota elections)
Ordinary voters may not understand complex laws + may vote for unsustainable measures such as cutting taxes whilst also increasing public spending
What is split ticket voting?
When voter decided to for different candidates from different parties in the same election
For example, voting for Biden as president but for a Republican in the House or Senate
When was split ticket voting at its highest and its lowest?
Highest - 1970s and mid 1980s
Lowest - 2020
What year was the first time in modern US politics when every Senate race corresponded with how that state voted in the presidential election?
2016
Why might split ticket voting occur?
• Reflects personal preferences of personality over party
• May vote for incumbents (e.g. Dem Collin Peterson who was re-elected in 2016 despite his district backing Trump by a margin of over 30% - he was also the most conservative Dem in the House)
• The sheer number of elected offices offers many opportunities to split the ballot
What is the main consequence of split ticket voting?
Divided government at either state or national level
Split Senate delegations where there is 1 senator from each party (in 2020-2022 6 states had split senate representation- but this was its lowest for more than a century)
It can affect voting behaviour of elected representatives who must be careful how they vote and the amount of support they offer to ‘their’ president
Why has split ticket voting declined?
Because of the ever-increasing and widening divide between Democrats and Republicans on fundamental political values
Increased polarisation
Identifying as either liberal or conservative
What was the turnout in 2016 vs 2020 for the presidential elections?
2016 - 60.1% of the voting age population voted
2020 - increased to a record 66.4%
What is the average turnout for primaries?
27%
What was the turnout in 2014 vs 2018 vs 2022 midterms?
2014 - 36.4%
2018 - 49% (record high!)
2022 - 46.8%
Most Americans are not consistent voters. For example just __% of voters voted in 2018, 2020 and 2022
37%
Why was turnout so high in 2020?
Trump was a deeply polarising figure since 2016 - pushed liberals to turn out
COVID 19 made it easier to vote as many states made postal/mail voting much easier
What factors explain abstention rates in the USA?
• The requirement for Americans to be proactive and register to vote
• In certain states ex-felons are barred from voting
• Some states do not make postal voting easy - by Contrast Colorado for example as an all-mail voting system
• Many states have relatively high thresholds to get on the ballot which can limit the choice of candidates - In Indiana a candidate from a minor party must secure over 26,699 votes !
• Some states such as Texas have introduced tougher voter ID laws to discourage what they term voter fraud
• Georgia purged 1.4 million people from the voter rolls between 2012 and 2018!
• Lack of choice (two-party dominance - lack of third parties and independents)- USA almost exclusively uses a majoritarian electoral system
• Voter fatigue
• Feelings of ‘wasted votes’ or like their vote will change very little in the grand scheme of things
• Many states and districts are uncompetitive - so a vote may make little difference to the outcome
• Apathy about political and politicians
Not so much a ‘beacon of democracy’
How many delegates did Trump win 4th June 2024 in North Dakota caucus?
29
Why did Iowa become the state to win?
Jimmy Carter won Iowa in 1976 when his team realised they could pick up momentum - he won the presidential election and the rest was history !
What happened to the North Dakota Republican caucus in 2020?
It was cancelled due to the COVID pandemic and all delegates were allocated to Trump
Were any electors disqualified, replaced or received fines for failing to vote as pledged in 2016?
Yes - there were 10 ‘faithless electors’ who cast ‘deviant’ votes
More voted against Hillary than Trump !
What was turnout among the young vs the old in 2020?
Young - 46% 18-29 year olds
Old - 71% over 65s
