US Elections Flashcards
How often do fixed term elections get held?
Every 4 years
Who becomes president if the president dies, is removed or impeached
The Vice President automatically and immediately becomes president and serves the remainder of the presidents term.
When do fixed term elections take place?
Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Requirements for a presidential candidate
- natural born US citizen
- at least 35
- resided with the USA for at least 14 years
- not already served 2 terms
Other extra constitutional requirements to be a president?
Political experience (although Eisenhower and trump had none) Major party endorsement Ability to raise large sums of money Effective organisation Sounds and relevant policies
The stages in a presidential election
- The invisible primary
- Primaries and caucuses
- Choosing Vice President
- National party conventions
- General election campaign
- Election day
- electoral college voting
Define invisible primary
The period between candidates declaring an intention to run for the presidency and the first primaries and caucuses
Features of the invisible primary
- candidate announcements
- televised party debates
- fundraising
- higher national recognition for lesser known candidates
- opinion polls
- endorsements by leading party figures
Is the invisible primary important? YES leading in polls
The candidate leading in the polls at the end of the invisible primary is very often the one eventually chosen after the primaries
Is the invisible primary important? YES
Candidates drop out
Some candidates drop out during this period
Eg 15 democrats dropped out before the first state voted in 2020
Is the invisible primary important? YES Fundraising
They are critical for fundraising as the primaries and caucuses are packed into the early months of election year
Is the invisible primary important? YES First Impressions
First impressions in the televised party debates are important
Is the invisible primary important? No win then lose
It’s possible to ‘win’ the invisible primary but go on to lose the nomination e.g democrat hillary Clinton in 2007-08
Is the invisible primary important? No Drop out
Candidates who drop out don’t do so just because of the invisible primary but bc they are ill qualified and/or unpopular candidates
Is the invisible primary important? No Campaigning skills
It does not test campaigning skills as well as the primaries do, and especially the caucuses
Is the invisible primary important? No Performance in debates and polls
The focus is mainly on performance rather than on policies
What stage in the presidential election is primaries and caucuses?
The second stage
Where are primaries held?
Held in mid to large population states eg California, New York, Alabama
Where are caucuses held?
Are held in small to mid population states, and especially in geographically large states with small populations
Eg. Iowa Nevada and Wyoming
What happened to the use of caucuses in 2020?
They declined significantly due to the restrictions because of the covid 19 pandemic
What are the 2 main functions of primaries and caucuses?
To show popularity for candidates among ordinary voters
To choose delegates to go to the national party conventions
State parties decide whether to hold a primary or caucuses
Who decides on the timing of primaries and caucuses?
States decide, the usual window is January/February to June of an election year
Some states schedule early contest (Iowa and New Hampshire)
Some states deliberately coincide their contests on the same day of those of neighbouring states creating a regional primary. Eg. Super Tuesday
Election cycles between 1984 and 2008 saw an increase in what?
Front loading, with more states pushing their dates earlier in the cycle.
Although 2012 and 2016 saw some slippage in this trend, front loading was much in evidence again in 2020
Define primary
A state based election to choose a party’s candidate for the presidency by showing support for candidates among ordinary voters. Primaries also select delegates to represent the state party at the national party conventions
Define caucuses
A state based series of meetings to choose a party’s candidate for the presidency. They usually attract unrepresentative and low turnouts
What’s Super Tuesday?
A Tuesday in February or early march when a number of states coincide their presidential primaries and caucuses to try to gain influence
What’s front loading?
The phenomenon by which states schedule their primaries or caucuses earlier in the nomination cycles in an attempt to increase their importance
How many can we classify primaries?
2
Who is allowed to vote in them
How delegates are awarded in them
Classify primaries by who can vote, how many types?
3
Open primaries
Closed primaries
Modified primaries
What’s an open primary?
In which any registered voter can vote in either party’s primary
What’s a closed primary?
In which only registered democrats can vote in the democratic primary, and the same with republicans
What’s a modified primary?
Like closed primaries, but also allow registered independents to vote in either parties primary
Classifying primaries by how delegates are awarded, how many types?
2
Proportional primaries
Winner take all primaries
What’s a proportional primary?
In which delegates are awarded to the candidates in proportion to the votes they get
(There’s normally a threshold a candidate must reach to win any delegates, usually 10 to 15%)
What’s a winner takes all primary?
In which whoever gets the most votes in the primary wins all the states delegates (allowed only in the Republican Party)
Who traditionally holds the first presidential caucuses?
Iowa
What’s the outcome of iowas caucus?
They often attract very low turnout (just 2108 voters in 2012 republican caucuses)
Turnout is also unrepresentative because Iowa is more than 90% white and caucuses also tend to attract the more ideological voters
Who traditionally holds the first presidential primary?
New hampshire
What’s the outcome of New Hampshire primary?
It often attracts a high turnout 42% in 2020
It’s possible to lose the New Hampshire primary but still win the party nomination
E.g joe Biden democrats in 2020
The most important thing for a candidate is live up to or exceed expectations
Winning the New Hampshire primary boosts opinion polls numbers, media coverage and money
Do incumbent presidents have to compete in their parties primaries?
Yes Obama in 2012
But little or no attention is given to these primaries
How much of the vote did Obama and trump win on incumbent primaries?
Obama 92% 2012
trump 90% 2020
How does the voter turnout change if an incumbent president faces a challenge in their primary?
Eg jimmy carter facing senator edward Kennedy in the 1980 democratic primaries: George bush facing pat buchanan in 1992
It was not coincidental that, although carter and bush won their primaries, they both went on to lose in the general election, having being politically damages in the primaries
They key for incumbent presidents is to avoid a serious primary challenge