US Elections Flashcards
How often do fixed term elections get held?
Every 4 years
Who becomes president if the president dies, is removed or impeached
The Vice President automatically and immediately becomes president and serves the remainder of the presidents term.
When do fixed term elections take place?
Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Requirements for a presidential candidate
- natural born US citizen
- at least 35
- resided with the USA for at least 14 years
- not already served 2 terms
Other extra constitutional requirements to be a president?
Political experience (although Eisenhower and trump had none) Major party endorsement Ability to raise large sums of money Effective organisation Sounds and relevant policies
The stages in a presidential election
- The invisible primary
- Primaries and caucuses
- Choosing Vice President
- National party conventions
- General election campaign
- Election day
- electoral college voting
Define invisible primary
The period between candidates declaring an intention to run for the presidency and the first primaries and caucuses
Features of the invisible primary
- candidate announcements
- televised party debates
- fundraising
- higher national recognition for lesser known candidates
- opinion polls
- endorsements by leading party figures
Is the invisible primary important? YES leading in polls
The candidate leading in the polls at the end of the invisible primary is very often the one eventually chosen after the primaries
Is the invisible primary important? YES
Candidates drop out
Some candidates drop out during this period
Eg 15 democrats dropped out before the first state voted in 2020
Is the invisible primary important? YES Fundraising
They are critical for fundraising as the primaries and caucuses are packed into the early months of election year
Is the invisible primary important? YES First Impressions
First impressions in the televised party debates are important
Is the invisible primary important? No win then lose
It’s possible to ‘win’ the invisible primary but go on to lose the nomination e.g democrat hillary Clinton in 2007-08
Is the invisible primary important? No Drop out
Candidates who drop out don’t do so just because of the invisible primary but bc they are ill qualified and/or unpopular candidates
Is the invisible primary important? No Campaigning skills
It does not test campaigning skills as well as the primaries do, and especially the caucuses
Is the invisible primary important? No Performance in debates and polls
The focus is mainly on performance rather than on policies
What stage in the presidential election is primaries and caucuses?
The second stage
Where are primaries held?
Held in mid to large population states eg California, New York, Alabama
Where are caucuses held?
Are held in small to mid population states, and especially in geographically large states with small populations
Eg. Iowa Nevada and Wyoming
What happened to the use of caucuses in 2020?
They declined significantly due to the restrictions because of the covid 19 pandemic
What are the 2 main functions of primaries and caucuses?
To show popularity for candidates among ordinary voters
To choose delegates to go to the national party conventions
State parties decide whether to hold a primary or caucuses
Who decides on the timing of primaries and caucuses?
States decide, the usual window is January/February to June of an election year
Some states schedule early contest (Iowa and New Hampshire)
Some states deliberately coincide their contests on the same day of those of neighbouring states creating a regional primary. Eg. Super Tuesday
Election cycles between 1984 and 2008 saw an increase in what?
Front loading, with more states pushing their dates earlier in the cycle.
Although 2012 and 2016 saw some slippage in this trend, front loading was much in evidence again in 2020
Define primary
A state based election to choose a party’s candidate for the presidency by showing support for candidates among ordinary voters. Primaries also select delegates to represent the state party at the national party conventions
Define caucuses
A state based series of meetings to choose a party’s candidate for the presidency. They usually attract unrepresentative and low turnouts
What’s Super Tuesday?
A Tuesday in February or early march when a number of states coincide their presidential primaries and caucuses to try to gain influence
What’s front loading?
The phenomenon by which states schedule their primaries or caucuses earlier in the nomination cycles in an attempt to increase their importance
How many can we classify primaries?
2
Who is allowed to vote in them
How delegates are awarded in them
Classify primaries by who can vote, how many types?
3
Open primaries
Closed primaries
Modified primaries
What’s an open primary?
In which any registered voter can vote in either party’s primary
What’s a closed primary?
In which only registered democrats can vote in the democratic primary, and the same with republicans
What’s a modified primary?
Like closed primaries, but also allow registered independents to vote in either parties primary
Classifying primaries by how delegates are awarded, how many types?
2
Proportional primaries
Winner take all primaries
What’s a proportional primary?
In which delegates are awarded to the candidates in proportion to the votes they get
(There’s normally a threshold a candidate must reach to win any delegates, usually 10 to 15%)
What’s a winner takes all primary?
In which whoever gets the most votes in the primary wins all the states delegates (allowed only in the Republican Party)
Who traditionally holds the first presidential caucuses?
Iowa
What’s the outcome of iowas caucus?
They often attract very low turnout (just 2108 voters in 2012 republican caucuses)
Turnout is also unrepresentative because Iowa is more than 90% white and caucuses also tend to attract the more ideological voters
Who traditionally holds the first presidential primary?
New hampshire
What’s the outcome of New Hampshire primary?
It often attracts a high turnout 42% in 2020
It’s possible to lose the New Hampshire primary but still win the party nomination
E.g joe Biden democrats in 2020
The most important thing for a candidate is live up to or exceed expectations
Winning the New Hampshire primary boosts opinion polls numbers, media coverage and money
Do incumbent presidents have to compete in their parties primaries?
Yes Obama in 2012
But little or no attention is given to these primaries
How much of the vote did Obama and trump win on incumbent primaries?
Obama 92% 2012
trump 90% 2020
How does the voter turnout change if an incumbent president faces a challenge in their primary?
Eg jimmy carter facing senator edward Kennedy in the 1980 democratic primaries: George bush facing pat buchanan in 1992
It was not coincidental that, although carter and bush won their primaries, they both went on to lose in the general election, having being politically damages in the primaries
They key for incumbent presidents is to avoid a serious primary challenge
What’s the normal voter turnout in primaries?
Low 20 to 30% of eligible voters
Turnout varies from state to state eg in 2020 it varied from 46% in the Montana primaries to just 9% in the Iowa caucuses
Turnout is higher in primaries than in caucuses
Factors that affect turnout in primaries and caucuses?
Demography
Type of primary
Competitiveness
Timing
Voter turnout - demography
Turnout is higher among more educated, higher-income and elderly voters
Voter turnout - type of primary
Open primaries tend to attract higher turnout as more people are eligible to vote in them
Voter turnout - competitiveness of the nomination race
Turnout is higher if the nomination race is competitive; lower if its a one horse race
Voter turnout - timing
Primaries that are held after the nomination has effectively been decided attract lower turnout than those held when the race is still open
Why was primary turnout boosted in 2020?
Because covid increased the use of postal balloting
Are primaries important - YES - presidential candidates
The presidential candidates emerge during them
Are primaries important - YES Candidates eliminated
A large number of candidates are eliminated by them
Are primaries important - YES Delegates
Delegates (who make the final decision about the candidate) are chosen by them
Are primaries important - YES Media
They attract a large amount of media attention
Are primaries important - YES Lesser known candidates
Lesser known candidates see them as a way of boosting name recognition
Are primaries important - YES Test skills
They test some presidential skills eg. Organisational, presentational
Are primaries important - YES More important
They are much more important than they used to be before the McGovern - Fraser reforms (1970s)
Are primaries important - NO - invisible primaries
Primaries often merely confirm decisions made during ‘invisible primary’
Are primaries important - NO Media
What goes on in the media (eg. Televised debates) is often more important
Are primaries important - NO Skills
Many presidential skills are not tested eg ability compromise, ability to work with congress
Are primaries important - NO - delegates
Many primaries choose so few delegates that they cannot be regarded as important
Advantages of primaries - participation
Increased levels of participation by voters
Advantages of primaries - Choice
Increased choice of candidates
Advantages of primaries - gruelling
A gruelling race for a gruelling job
Disadvantages of primaries - voter apathy
Can lead to voter apathy
Disadvantages of primaries - Representativeness
Voters are often unrepresentative
Disadvantages of primaries - Process
Process is too long, too expensive, too dominated by the media
Disadvantages of primaries - Bitter
Can develop into bitter, personal battles
Disadvantages of primaries - Peer review
Lack of peer review
Disadvantages of primaries - Super delegates
Role of ‘super delegates’ if the nomination is not decided on the first ballot
Ways to improve the nomination process:
- abolish the caucuses and replace them with primaries
- do away with closed primaries, thereby increasing voter eligibility
- rotate the order of primaries to increase geographic and demographic diversity
- allow candidates to select their own delegates rather than having them allocated by the state party
- institute 4 regional primaries, held on the first Tuesdays of march, April, may, June
- hold a national primary
Choosing vice presidential candidates:
- confirmed by a majority vote of delegates at the national party convention
- big media event
- can give president boosts in the poll
Different strategies for choosing their running mate
- a balanced ticket e.g. Biden - Harris
- potential for government e.g. trump - pence
- party unity
Define balanced ticket:
A pairing of presidential and vice presidential candidates Ona ticket, who attract support for different reasons, thereby making the broadest appeal to voters
Who holds national party conventions?
Democrats, republicans as well as some third parties
When are national party conventions held?
July or august
Who holds the national party convention first?
The challenging party
How long do national party conventions last?
3-4 days
Who attends national party conventions?
Delegates, most of whom were chosen in the primaries and caucuses
Conventions have what 3 formal functions?
- choosing the presidential candidate (normally confirming the primaries)
- choosing the Vice President (in effect confirming the choice announced earlier)
- deciding the party platform ratifying the document drawn up earlier by the party’s platform committee
What functions are more important in national party conventions?
Informal functions
- promoting party unity
- enthusing the party faithful (attendees)
- enthusing ordinary voters (watching on tv)
What does the candidate hope for after the national party convention?
The candidate hopes for a post convention ‘bounce’ in the polls
Trumps bounce in 2016 was just 1 percentage point
What’s a national party convention?
The meeting held every 4 years by each of the 2 major parties to select presidential and vice presidential candidates and to agree the party platform
Are national party conventions still important? YES meet
The only time the national parties meet together
Are national party conventions still important? YES Opportunity
Provides an opportunity to promote party unity after the primaries
Are national party conventions still important? YES Introduce
Introduce the presidential candidates to the public
Are national party conventions still important? YES Speech
Delivery of the acceptance speech
Are national party conventions still important? YES Bounce
Can lead to a significant bounce in the polls
Are national party conventions still important? YES Tune in
Most voters tune in to the campaign until the conventions start
Are national party conventions still important? YES Number of voters
A significant number of voters make their decision about whom to vote for at this stage
Are national party conventions still important? NO decisions
Nowadays they make few if any significant decisions: merely confirm decisions made earlier that we already know about
Are national party conventions still important? NO Tv
Television coverage has been reduced
Are national party conventions still important? NO Ordinary voters
Ordinary voters don’t really see them as important
Are national party conventions still important? NO Hoopla
More balloons, hoopla and celebrities than serious policy debate and presentation
When does the general election campaign begin?
Traditionally on labour day 01/09, though these days it begins straight after the conventions - and lasts until early November
How long does the general election campaign last?
9 weeks
What’s the October surprise?
In 2016 FBI director Comey reopened an investigation into Hilary Clintons use of a private email server while she was Secretary of State.
During 2020 trump had 2 problems, had covid so was out of the public eye for a while. Was investigated for only paying $750 income tax in 2016
What are the 2 main sets of legislation for campaign finance?
Federal election campaign act 1974
Bipartisan campaign reform act (BICRA) 2002
What was the federal election campaign act? (FECA)
- direct result of the watergate scandal
- limited the contributions that individuals, unions and corporations could give
- loopholes, saw the rise of ‘soft money”
- it was weakened by the SC decision in Buckley V Valeo
- it provided matching funds administered by the newly created federal election commission (FEC)
- These funds dominated presidential campaigns between 1976 and 2004
What was the BICRA?
Often referred to as the McCain-Fein-Gold Act after its 2 initiators, democrat mcain and republican feingold
It led to further widespread use of political action committees (PACs)
The SC court decision in Citizens united V FEC granted corporate and labour organisations the same rights of political free speech and therefore political fundraising
Led to super PACs
Define October surprise
An event occurring late in the presidential campaign to the disadvantage of one candidate, leaving them with little or no time to recover before election day
What’s campaign finance?
The raising and spending of money to support a candidate or a political party in an election campaign
Define soft money
Money donated to political parties instead of to candidates to avoid campaign finance limitations. Parties are allowed to spend the money on certain campaigning activities
Define soft money
Money donated to political parties instead of to candidates to avoid campaign finance limitations. Parties are allowed to spend the money on certain campaigning activities
Define political action committee’s
A political committee that raises limited amounts of money and spend these contributions for the express purpose of electing or defeating candidates
Define super PAC
A political committee that makes independent expenditures, but does not make contributions to candidates
What are the main provisions of BICRA?
- National party commitees are banned from raising or spending ‘soft money’
- labour unions and corporations are forbidden from directly funding issue ads
- limits to hard money
What’s hard money
Money given directly to a candidate to assist in his or her election campaign
