Unit 9: Economics Flashcards
Four Stages, or Phases, of a Business Cycle In order:
Expansion
Peak
Contraction
Trough
Everyone Pleads for Cinnamon Toast
Downturns (contractions) in the business cycle tend to be characterized by:
rising numbers of bankruptcies and bond defaults,
higher consumer debt,
falling stock prices,
rising inventories (a sign of slackeningconsumer demand in hard times), and decreasing gross domestic product
A trough is characterized by:
- high unemployment,
- flat GDP,
- low inflation, and
- low but not decreasing-_consumer demand.
Expansion in the business cycle tends to be characterized by:
increased consumer demand for goods and services, increases in industrial production,
rising stock prices,
rising property values, and
increasing GDP
A peak (prosperity) is characterized by:
- very low unemployment,
- a slowdown in inflation,
a slowing of GDP growth, and - steady consumer demand
Some economists break the expansion phase into two separate phases:
recovery and expansion.
_____ is the period of growth from the trough to the prior peak.
Recovery
_____ is when the economy reaches the prior peak and continues to grow.
Expansion
A more serious inflation period is more likely to occur during the ____ phase of the business cycle
expansion
If unemployment is low, then employment is _____. If unemployment is high, employment is ____.
high
low
When the economy enters an extended period of contraction that continues for _____ or longer, it is called a recession.
six months (two quarters)
If a contraction continues for _____ it is then called a depression.
18 months
_____ is when the economy bottoms out and lays the groundwork for recovery and expansion
Trough
Major Economic Indicators
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Gross National Product (GNP)
GDP:
A nation’s annual economic output-all the goods and services produced within the nation
In the United States, GDP figures are released ____ by the Commerce Department. A positive figure indicates that the economy is growing. A negative figure indicates that the economy is contracting.
quarterly
The _____ measures the overall change in consumer prices based on a representative basket of goods and services over time. It is the most widely used measure of inflation, closely followed by policymakers, financial markets, businesses, and consumers.
Consumer Price Index
The term constant dollar measurement is sometimes used for ____.
CPI
The CPI is computed each ____.
month
_____ indicators are those indicators that tend to change direction ahead of the overall
economy. The change of direction may lead the economy by a very long time frame (months)
to a very short time frame (weeks), but it has proven to be reliable.
Leading
Types of leading indicators:
Money supply (M2)
* Building permits (housing starts)
* Average weekly initial claims for state unemployment compensation
* Average work week in manufacturing
* New orders forconsumer goods
Machine tool orders
Changes in inventories of durable goods
Changes in sensitive materials prices
Stock prices (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) Changes in business and consumer borrowing
_____ indicators change direction along with the economy as a whole. Because these indicators are often published after the time period has passed, they are good confirmation tools of the leading indicators.
Coincident
Types of coincident indicators:
Number of hours worked (as a proxy for personal income) Employment levels (as measured by the rate of unemployment) Nonagricultural employment
Personal income
Industrial production
Manufacturing and trade sales GDP
_____ indicators are those indicators that change direction after the economy has begun a new trend but serve as confirmation of the new trend.
Lagging
Types of Laggin Indicators:
Corporate profits
Average duration of unemployment
Labor cost per unit of output (manufacturing) Ratio of inventories to sales
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income
Measures of Price Movements
Inflation
Deflation
Stagnation
Hyperinflation
Stagflation
_____ is a general increase in prices.
Inflation
Deflation is a general decline in prices.
Deflation
_____ usually occurs during severe recessions when unemployment is on the rise.
Deflation
Economic _____ refers to prolonged periods of slow or little economic growth, accompanied by high unemployment.
stagnation
In _____ , the pace of inflation is extremely high and accelerating. This severely erodes the purchasing power of a currency.
hyperinflation
_____ is the term used to describe the unusual combination of inflation (a rise in prices) and high unemployment. This generally occurs when the economy isn’t growing and there is a
lack of consumer demand and business activity, but prices for goods are still rising.
Stagflation
_____ industries are highly sensitive to business cycles and inflation trends. Most _____ industries produce durable goods, such as heavy machinery and automobiles, and raw materials, such as steel and concrete.
Cyclical
_____ industries are least affected by normal business cycles. Companies in defensive industries generally produce nondurable consumer goods (sometimes called consumables), such as food, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco.
Noncyclical
_____ industries tend to rise when the economy turns down. They are producers of a product that people buy when they are scared and looking for safety. The primary example is gold mining and refinement, though any precious metal
Countercyclical
A _____ industry is one that seems to be disconnected from the business cycle, doing well regardless of the economy. This may apply to an individual company, as well as to an entire industry. Growth industries don’t care about the economy:
growth
The balance sheet provides a snapshot of a company’s financial position at a specific time. It identifies the value of the company’s _____ and ____.
assets and liablities
Balance sheet equation:
assets - liabilities = net worth
_____ are cash and assets that may be easily converted to cash. Securities, accounts receivable, and the company’s inventory are examples of current assets.
Current assets
_____ assets are assets that are difficult to liquidate. Real estate, furniture, and equipment are all examples.
Fixed
____ assets may also be called intangibles or goodwill. This category represents things
that are difficult to value. Trademarks, copyrights, reputation, and intellectual property are examples of this category.
Other
Assets are divided into three categories:
current assets, fixed assets, and other.
Current liabilities are those liabilities that are due now or in the near future (within ____ months).
12
____ liabilities would include accrued wages, accrued taxes, accounts payable, or interest payments
Current
_____ liabilities are debts that will not be paid of in the near future. For a corporation, this will normally be notes and bonds.
Long term
The net worth (shareholder equity) section has several components:
Preferred stock, Common stock, Capital in excess of par, Retained earnings.
The current ratio is a better figure to use when comparing the liquidity of companies. The formula for current ratios is as follows:
current assets / current liabilities = current ratio
The acid test ratio, also called the quick ratio, is the test of a company’s liquidity if everything really goes bad. The formula for acid-test ratios is as follows:
(current assets - inventory) / current liabilities = acid-test ratio
Working capital is the amount of money that a company can spend (or lose) and remain operational. The formula for working capital is as follows:
current assets - current liabilities = working capital