UNIT 4 VOTING BEHAVIOUR AND THE MEDIA Flashcards
factors affecting voting behaviour- class
47% of AB voters vote conservative, 47% of CD vote labour. (2017 GE)
scotland usually has labour be most popular iwth DE voters, however beaten by SNP with 56/59 seats in scottish ge 2015.
in 2024 election, 2CDE voters more likely to vote reform, AB more likely to vote libdems- smaller parties. 2019- first time that there was a higher likelyhood of 2CDE voters voting for conservatives instead of labour BREXITTT. 40% still vote according to class
factors affecting voting behaviour age
Key Trends in Age and Party Support:
Older voters are more likely to vote Conservative, while younger voters tend to support Labour or other progressive parties.
Age as a Major Political Divide:
YouGov: Age is the biggest dividing line in British politics (EU Referendum, 2017 & 2019 elections).
For every 10 years older a voter is:
Chance of voting Conservative increases by 9 points.
Chance of voting Labour decreases by 8 points.
Age and Referendums:
EU Referendum (2016):
Older voters more likely to vote Leave.
29% of 18-24s voted Leave vs. 64% of 65+ voters.
Age and Voter Turnout:
Younger voters are less likely to vote, but turnout has been rising.
2015 General Election:
18-24 turnout: 43% (lowest turnout).
65+ turnout: 78% (highest turnout).
Labour gained vote share in all age groups, with the biggest gains among young voters.
2019 Election:
18-24s were 4x more likely to vote Labour, SNP, Green, or Lib Dem than Conservative.
r factor in voting behaviour than many other influences, potentially linked to Brexit (older voters more likely to vote Leave).
dismissal: age voting for conservatives very important, other minor oarties not so much in 2024.Labour and Conservatives have been at their most successful when they have been able to reach beyond their core age support group. In 1997, for example, Labour achieved a 5% lead over the Conservatives among voters aged 65+, helping Tony Blair to his landslide victory.
factors affecting voting region
North-South Divide:
The further north and west a voter lives, the less likely they are to vote Conservative.
This trend increases in urban areas.
South East England:
Most prosperous region, high home ownership, little industrial trade unionism.
Conservatives perform disproportionately well.
Labour strongholds:
Ethnically diverse big cities with large working-class populations.
Areas with a history of heavy industry and trade unionism:
Wales, Merseyside, Greater Manchester, Tyne and Wear.
2015 Election & Scotland:
SNP dominance in Scotland, winning most seats.
This came at the expense of Labour, not Conservatives (who won only one seat).
Rural vs. Urban Voting Patterns:
Labour stronger in cities, especially those with large university populations.
Conservatives stronger in rural areas.
City voters tend to support higher taxes and higher public spending, possibly due to:
Greater exposure to poverty and social issues.
Students leaning more towards left-wing policies.
London & Conservative Decline:
Conservative vote share decreasing in London, possibly due to:
Younger population.
Lower home ownership rates.
2024 Labour success in London:
Labour won 59 MPs (highest since 1966).
Conservatives lost 11 seats.
Only 9 Conservative seats left in London, none in Inner London.
dismissal: can be explained by social class - People in the south / south-east of the UK tend to be financially better-off as employment rates and incomes are on average higher. Therefore, people living here are more likely to vote Conservative. For people in the north / north-west of the UK (including Scotland, Wales and cities such as Liverpool and Manchester), employment opportunities and income levels are generally poorer. increased cons vote share in labour seats: 2010 - 2019 - Conservative support increased by 18.8% in North East and 14% in Yorkshire & Humber
West Midlands - support for Conservatives increased by 18.4%
factors affecting voting ethnicity
Labour benefits more from ethnic minority votes.
Possible reasons:
Stronger association with equality legislation.
Greater support for immigration.
Jeremy Corbyn’s pro-immigration stance helped Labour secure 49 of 73 seats in Greater London (where only 45% are White British).
East Ham (most ethnically diverse constituency, 77% non-white):
Labour won 83.2% of the vote.
Conservatives only won 5 of the 75 most diverse constituencies.
2024- people of asian/ south asian decent voted more for minor prties over concerns of the government supporting isreal/ not taking a stronger stance against it.
dismissal: It is also the case that most ethnic minority groups experience lower income levels and higher unemployment compared to white groups, therefore ethnic minority support for Labour could be due to social class. In the 2019 general election the Conservatives secured only 20% of the ethnic minority vote whereas Labour secured 64%.
It is also important not to generalise ethnic minority voters e.g. Conservatives seen increase in British Asian vote in constituencies such as Harrow East and Leicester East
factors affecting voting gender
Labour appeals more to women due to:
Support for welfare & family policies (e.g. tax credits, minimum wage).
Men more likely to vote Conservative as they:
Earn more on average and may prefer lower taxation policies.
Issue-based voting is important:
Women and men may vote differently on specific policies rather than just by party.
Gender of party leader became less important in 2017 compared to 1979 & 1983.
2017 Election Gender Split (18-24 age group):
Women: 73% Labour, 18% Conservative.
Men: 52% Labour, 36% Conservative.
Striking imbalance, possibly due to reaction against male Conservative politicians.
Historical trends:
1959: Harold Macmillan linked Conservative prosperity with family stability.
1970: Edward Heath won housewives’ support by pledging to reduce the cost of living.
not important :Although there is little overall difference between the way men and women vote, electoral statistics show that in the 2019 general election, marginally more men voted for the Conservatives across most age and social classes, than women.
factors affecting voting education
Education & Voting Behaviour
Before 2016:
School leavers were more likely to vote Labour in every election since 1979.
Graduates were more likely to vote Conservative.
Education predicts social values:
Graduates → More liberal views.
School leavers → More authoritarian views.
Education predicts social identity:
Graduates → More likely to identify as middle class & European.
School leavers → More likely to identify as working class & nationally/locally focused
rational choice theory
Rational choice theory: The idea that voters behave like consumers, deciding how to vote by evaluating what is the most
beneficial option for them as individuals. Voters look at the policies on offer and choose the party most closely aligned to their
preferences. This is linked to the growth of a more educated electorate, with more access to political information, particularly
since the rise of the Internet. This approach is problematic because it assumes that voters make rational choices based upon a
knowledge of party policies. It does not explain elections where voters feel differently about different issues, or where there is
no single overriding issue.
non social factors affecting voting - govt competency
Swing voters & government competency:
If a government is seen as competent, swing voters are less likely to switch.
If a government appears incompetent, swing voters may vote for the opposition or cast a protest vote.
‘Governments lose elections; oppositions do not win them’:
Elections are often decided by government performance, especially economic performance.
2010 election: Labour lost due to perceived economic failure in the global financial crisis.
2015 election: Conservatives re-elected due to perceived economic competence (2010-2015).
Historic voter shifts based on competency perceptions:
1979: Many skilled workers voted Conservative for the first time due to Thatcher’s populist style & discontent with Labour’s governance.
1983-1992: These voters stayed with Conservatives.
1997-2005: Switched to Labour after Major’s poor management & the success of New Labour.
2010: Abandoned Labour due to the financial crisis & recession.
Economic Voting Model (variant of rational choice theory):
Voters support the governing party if it manages the economy well.
If dissatisfied, they may support a party that promises economic prosperity.
Key economic factors influencing voters:
Inflation, unemployment, interest rates, taxation.
General well-being or ‘feel-good factor’.
non social factors affecting voting- leadership
The image of a party leader has become increasingly important in shaping electoral outcomes.
Competent, charismatic, and decisive leadership can help secure electoral victories, while weak or divisive leadership can hinder a party’s chances.
Examples of Successful Party Leadership:
1959 - Harold Macmillan: Won convincingly by projecting competence.
1983 - Margaret Thatcher:
Seen as strong & focused, especially after the Falklands War (1982).
Contrasted with Michael Foot, whose left-wing intellectualism had limited appeal.
2001 - Tony Blair:
Charismatic leadership dominated the election.
Faced a weak and divided opposition under William Hague.
2019 - Boris Johnson vs. Jeremy Corbyn:
Johnson’s clear Brexit stance helped Conservatives secure a large majority.
Corbyn’s leadership was a major factor in Labour’s poor performance, with former Labour voters from 2017 abandoning the party.
non social factrs affecting voting behaviour
Impact of Opposition Leaders on Elections
Opposition leaders can shape elections by capturing the national mood and setting the agenda.
Successful opposition leaders capitalize on government weaknesses and resonate with public sentiment.
Unsuccessful leaders fail to connect with voters and may even lose support during the campaign.
Successful Opposition Leaders
1951 - Winston Churchill:
Promised to “set the people free” by ending rationing and lowering taxes.
Contrasted One Nation Conservatism with Labour’s class-based socialism.
1979 - Margaret Thatcher:
Less popular personally than James Callaghan, but focused the election on trade union power, which had led to the Winter of Discontent.
1997 - Tony Blair:
Energetic, confident, and charismatic campaign.
Contrasted sharply with John Major’s weak and indecisive leadership.
2010 - David Cameron:
Focused on Labour’s economic mismanagement and the national debt under Gordon Brown.
Failed to win a majority due to Nick Clegg’s strong Liberal Democrat campaign.
Unsuccessful Opposition Leaders
1992 - Neil Kinnock:
His triumphant Sheffield rally days before the election alienated voters.
His overconfidence pushed swing voters back to John Major.
2005 - Michael Howard:
Failed to inspire widespread support, partly due to Anne Widdecombe’s remark that he had “something of the night” about him.
His support for the Iraq War drove anti-war voters to the Liberal Democrats.
2015 - Ed Miliband:
Failed to convince voters of his strength as a leader.
The Edstone (carved campaign promises) became a symbol of failure, mocked as the “heaviest suicide note in history”.
campaign- non social factprs affecting voting behaviour
1983 - Labour Party:
Socialist rhetoric appealed mainly to core Labour supporters.
Failed to engage middle-class swing voters who were benefiting from Thatcher’s tax cuts, contributing to Labour’s heavy defeat.
1992 - Conservative Party:
John Major’s soapbox campaign: He directly appealed to voters, using a more personal and accessible style.
Contrasted with Neil Kinnock’s managed campaign, helping the Conservatives secure an unexpected victory.
2017 - Labour Party:
Jeremy Corbyn’s traditional campaigning style: He took the Labour message directly to the people, traveling across the country and engaging voters face-to-face.
Theresa May’s controlled and lacklustre campaign: Her more reserved approach was seen as less engaging, weakening the Conservative appeal.
policy/ manifesto- non social factors affecting voting
Influence of Party Manifestos on Election Outcomes
1987 Labour Party Manifesto:
Key Issue: No commitment to the UK’s nuclear deterrent.
Conservative Response: Exploited the lack of a nuclear stance, using the slogan “Labour’s policy on arms” next to an image of a surrendering soldier. This undermined trust in Labour on defence and contributed to Conservative victory.
1992 Labour Party Manifesto:
Key Issue: Commitment to increased public spending.
Conservative Response: Framed the Labour plan as a “tax bombshell”, suggesting that it would lead to higher taxes for every family. This played into voters’ concerns about Labour’s economic competence and helped the Conservatives win.
2019 General Election Manifestos
Conservative Party:
Main Focus: The manifesto centered around “getting Brexit done”, with Johnson insisting that his Brexit deal was “oven-ready”.
To appeal to Labour-leaning voters, the Conservatives included pledges for increased spending on NHS, police, and infrastructure.
Shift in Tax Priorities: Johnson abandoned previous tax-cutting proposals, aiming to position the party as more in line with “One Nation” values, supporting public services.
Conservative spending pledges were modest, around £3 billion, compared to Labour’s £83 billion.
Labour Party:
Main Focus: Radical policy proposals including tax rises for higher earners, extensive renationalisation of privatised services, and substantial investment in public services.
Labour’s tax and spending policies were ambitious but risked being perceived as financially unviable.
Economic Competence: Johnson attacked Corbyn’s plans, suggesting they would lead to an economic crisis similar to past Labour governments.
Liberal Democrats:
Main Focus: A clear-cut promise to cancel Brexit and the “Remain bonus” of £50 billion for public services.
Tax policies: Proposed targeted tax rises, including an increase in air passenger duty to address climate change.
They also pledged to implement the toughest borrowing rules to ensure financial stability.
Key Takeaways:
1983 & 1992 Labour Manifestos: Missteps in these manifestos, particularly on nuclear defence and public spending, were exploited by the Conservatives, contributing to their victories.
2019 Manifestos: Provided voters with a clear choice between the Conservatives’ more moderate plans and Labour’s radical proposals. The manifestos shaped voter perceptions of economic competence and party priorities.
instrumental voting- non- social factors affecting voting
Issue/Instrumental Voting
Instrumental Voting refers to the idea that voters make their decisions based on the salience (importance) of specific issues that directly affect their lives or self-interest. This form of voting reflects a rational choice where voters prioritize the policies they believe will benefit them the most, which can shape electoral outcomes.
Key Examples of Instrumental Voting:
1983 Conservative Manifesto:
The Conservatives warned that Labour would reverse the right-to-buy scheme (allowing council house tenants to purchase their homes at discounted prices).
This issue appealed to the aspirational working class and helped Thatcher win support from this group, contributing to her success in the election.
2015 UKIP Surge:
The importance of immigration and Euroscepticism became more central issues for voters.
UKIP capitalized on these issues, boosting their vote share from 3.1% in 2005 to 12.6% in 2015.
This highlights how voters’ concerns over specific issues like immigration and EU membership shaped their voting behaviour.
Counter Example – Importance of Government Competency:
1997 Labour Party:
Labour’s competence in managing government was crucial in this election.
Even though Labour’s proposed tax rises might have negatively affected AB voters (more affluent, middle-class voters), they still increased Labour’s vote share by 11% in this group.
The incompetence of John Major’s Conservative government and the appeal of Tony Blair’s leadership were stronger factors than voters’ economic self-interest. This demonstrates that government competency and leadership can sometimes outweigh issues like tax or economic policy.
media affect on voting- newspapers
Examples of Media Influence:
The Sun’s Influence:
In 1992, The Sun mocked Neil Kinnock as unfit to be prime minister. After John Major’s Conservative victory, the newspaper claimed, “It’s the Sun Wot Won It,” reflecting its belief that the paper’s support helped secure the result.
In 1997, The Sun switched allegiance to support Tony Blair, and claimed, “It Was The Sun That Swung It,” after his landslide victory. This indicates the power of media endorsement in shaping political outcomes.
Tabloid Support for Parties:
Historically, newspapers like the Daily Mail, Daily Express, and Daily Telegraph have been strongly pro-Conservative.
The Mirror Group newspapers, on the other hand, have been the main tabloids that consistently supported Labour.
2015: According to the Media Standards Trust, 77% of tabloid leaders were hostile to Ed Miliband, Labour’s leader, portraying him unfavourably in the lead-up to the election.
Media Hostility Towards Gordon Brown:
Between 2007-2010, newspapers, especially tabloids, were highly critical of Gordon Brown, particularly concerning his handling of the economic crisis. This media criticism likely influenced public perceptions and electoral support.
Agenda-Setting and Influence on Policy:
Even though traditional newspaper readership has declined, newspapers still play a central role in setting the agenda for the media, influencing TV, and social media coverage.
Examples:
Daily Mail: Exposed the Metropolitan Police’s handling of the Stephen Lawrence case, which led to significant public and media attention, putting pressure on the government for change.
The Guardian: Exposed Downing Street lockdown parties in 2022, leading to Boris Johnson’s resignation. This demonstrates how investigative journalism can directly influence political outcomes.
Influence on Policy:
Newspapers can push political leaders and parties to abandon policies that are seen as politically toxic due to negative media coverage.
Examples:
2012: George Osborne dropped a proposed ‘pasty tax’ (a tax on takeaway hot food) after the Daily Mail branded it the ‘pasty tax’, generating widespread public backlash.
2017: The Conservative Party dropped a controversial policy about requiring elderly people to contribute to the cost of care home fees after the press dubbed it the ‘dementia tax’.
social media on voting
2019 Election – ‘Get Brexit Done’:
The phrase ‘Get Brexit Done’ became a powerful slogan spread widely on social media, which was a key component of the Conservative Party’s successful campaign.
Social media played a pivotal role in keeping the message simple, direct, and widely disseminated, reinforcing Boris Johnson’s Brexit stance and appealing to voters frustrated by the prolonged Brexit process.
2017 Election – Labour’s Social Media Engagement:
In 2017, Labour was far more active on social media than the Conservative Party, with double the number of Twitter followers. This allowed the Labour Party to effectively engage with younger voters and mobilize grassroots support.
Labour’s social media strategy contributed to a significant 9.6% increase in its vote share, suggesting that social media was a key factor in driving voter engagement and enthusiasm.
2015 Election – First Social Media Election?:
The 2015 general election is often considered the first social media election, with over half of people in the UK belonging to a social network, up from just over a third in 2010.
Carl Miller, Research Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media, highlighted the 7 million tweets to politicians during the 10 weeks before the election, illustrating how Twitter became a major platform for political discourse.
YouTube also played a role in amplifying political content, with Russell Brand’s interview with Ed Miliband generating over a million views, despite the traditional media’s generally negative reception.
Conservatives’ Social Media Spending in 2015:
The Conservative Party spent significantly more on Facebook advertising than Labour in the 2015 election. The Conservatives invested around £100,000 per month, compared to Labour’s £16,000.
This heavy investment in targeted social media advertising was seen as a key factor in David Cameron’s surprise victory. The ability to reach voters directly with tailored messages likely helped the Conservatives connect with a broader audience.
opinion pols have a pos effect on democracy
Bandwagon Effect:
Bandwagon effect occurs when polls show a party gaining popularity, encouraging more people to support that party. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle where increased support boosts a party’s momentum.
Opinion polls can therefore amplify trends, leading to greater support for the leading party as voters want to align with the perceived winner.
Boomerang Effect:
Conversely, a boomerang effect occurs when opinion polls predict a strong performance for one party, but it results in backlash. Voters who may feel uneasy about the predicted outcome, or who perceive a lack of competition, might move to the opposing side.
2015 UK General Election: Opinion polls predicting a tight race between Labour and the Conservatives led to a boomerang effect for Labour, especially in light of the possible Labour-SNP coalition. The prospect of such a coalition caused concerns about Labour’s ability to govern, leading to increased support for the Conservatives.
Reflecting Public Opinion:
Opinion polls allow political parties to gauge public opinion and adjust policies accordingly. This means parties can tailor their platforms to address the issues that are most important to voters, making them more representative of the public’s concerns.
For example, public support for policies related to welfare, healthcare, or immigration can influence parties to emphasize these issues in their manifestos.
Engagement and Voter Turnout:
Polls can play a crucial role in increasing voter engagement by signaling a close race, which can encourage higher turnout. If polls suggest a tight contest or a potentially decisive outcome, voters may be more likely to participate in the election.
1992 UK General Election: The polls predicted a hung parliament, which helped lead to 77.7% turnout, as voters were motivated by the close nature of the race.
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014: Polling indicating a close result led to 84.6% turnout, as people felt their vote could make a significant difference.
Public Outrage and Leadership Changes:
Opinion polls can also reflect shifts in public opinion that lead to political consequences, such as leadership changes.
2022 Polling on Lockdown Parties: Polls showing widespread public outrage about Downing Street’s lockdown parties contributed to a loss of support for Boris Johnson, eventually leading to his resignation.
2022 YouGov Poll: A poll in September 2022 showed Labour 33% ahead of the Conservatives, which indicated that Liz Truss had lost the confidence of the public. This likely contributed to her resignation due to lack of popularity and political support.
opinion pols bad
Inaccuracy and Poor Decision-Making:
Inaccurate Polling can lead to misinformed decisions by both voters and political parties.
For example, 2015 EU Referendum: 56 national polls suggested a Remain victory, while only 10 suggested Leave would win. This led David Cameron to call the referendum confident in a Remain outcome. The Leave victory was a surprise, and this shows how polling inaccuracy can result in misguided political decisions and policy strategies.
When opinion polls fail to reflect the true will of the public, they can also mislead politicians into making policy choices that do not align with the electorate’s real preferences.
2. Tactical Voting:
Tactical Voting: Opinion polls can encourage voters to vote strategically rather than based on their true preferences. When voters perceive that their preferred party has little chance of winning, they may vote for another party with the goal of influencing the outcome or blocking a particular candidate. This distorts the democratic process and means the results may not accurately reflect the actual views of the electorate.
For example, voters might choose the second-best option in a two-party race based on poll predictions that show the leading party as likely to win, even if they disagree with the leading party’s policies.
3. Encouraging Popularity Over Principles:
Opinion polls often focus on popularity rather than the underlying principles of a party’s policies. Politicians may tailor their positions and manifestos to improve their poll standings, focusing on issues that are currently popular rather than what they believe will genuinely improve the country.
This can lead to shallow political discourse, with leaders chasing short-term gains rather than addressing long-term, structural challenges. Politicians might avoid difficult decisions or unpopular policies that are necessary for long-term progress because they fear a decline in poll numbers.
4. Discouraging Voter Participation:
Poll Overconfidence can lead to lower voter turnout. If people believe the outcome is already decided, they may feel that their vote is not important or will not make a difference. This can discourage voter participation, particularly in elections where there is a perception of a clear winner.
2001 UK General Election: Labour held a significant lead in the polls, leading to a 59.4% turnout, the lowest since 1918. Many potential voters may have felt there was no point in voting since they believed the outcome was inevitable.
5. False Sense of Confidence and Surprise Outcomes:
Poll Misleading Confidence: When opinion polls suggest a strong lead for one party, it can lead to a false sense of confidence that causes a party to be complacent or fail to plan adequately for the actual election result.
2017 UK General Election: Opinion polls predicted a strong Conservative lead, but the election resulted in a hung parliament, with no party securing an outright majority. This led to the Conservatives entering into a minority government, highlighting how overconfidence based on inaccurate polling can backfire and create unpredictable outcomes.
6. Inaccuracy Leading to Unrepresentative Policies:
Polling Inaccuracy: If parties base their policies on faulty or misleading polls, the resulting policy choices may be unrepresentative of the broader public’s needs and desires.
For instance, misleading polls could skew policy priorities, prompting parties to focus on issues that may not actually be as important to the electorate as the polls suggest. This disconnect can lead to policies that fail to meet the needs of the majority.
1979 election
Wider Political Context:
The Winter of Discontent (1978-79):
The Winter of Discontent was a major turning point, driven by widespread industrial strikes by public sector workers protesting government-imposed wage caps during a period of economic stagnation.
Callaghan’s government struggled to contain the crisis, and his perceived failure to empathize with public suffering led to a loss of public support. The media, notably The Sun, exploited Callaghan’s “Crisis? What crisis?” image, making him appear out of touch with the difficulties facing the public.
Callaghan’s Delay in Calling the Election:
Prime Minister James Callaghan delayed calling the election, convinced that Labour did not yet have enough support. This strategy backfired when a vote of no confidence in Parliament forced him to call the election in March 1979.
Campaign Techniques and Tactics:
Thatcher’s Image Makeover:
Gordon Reece, a former TV producer, managed Margaret Thatcher’s campaign by polishing her public image, counterbalancing her hardline views with a softer, more appealing persona. This strategy aimed to make Thatcher seem more relatable and less confrontational, broadening her appeal across different demographics.
Thatcher’s Clever Launch in Labour Territory:
In a symbolic move, Thatcher launched the Conservative campaign in Labour-supporting Cardiff, attempting to disassociate the party from being seen as solely middle class and appealing to broader working-class support.
The Focus on the Economy and Trade Unions:
Thatcher’s manifesto concentrated on tackling the economic crisis, reducing the power of trade unions, and promising fiscal conservatism.
A key promise was the Right to Buy scheme for council house tenants, which appealed directly to aspirational working-class voters and homeownership advocates.
Labour’s Less Credible Promises:
Labour’s promises of full employment, tackling inflation, and improving industrial relations were viewed as less credible, especially given the economic and industrial chaos of the Wilson and Callaghan years. The public seemed to favor the Conservatives’ more pragmatic approach to economic recovery.
Voter Attachment and Class-Based Voting:
Class Voting:
The 1979 election saw a significant shift in class-based voting patterns:
C2 voters (skilled working class) saw an 11% swing to the Conservatives.
DE voters (unskilled workers) had a 9% swing to the Conservatives.
This was largely attributed to Thatcher’s policies like the Right to Buy scheme, which directly appealed to the working class, and dissatisfaction with Labour’s wage control policies.
Class Breakdown:
AB (Higher social classes): 59% voted Conservative, 24% Labour.
C2 (Skilled working class): 41% voted Conservative, 41% Labour.
DE (Unskilled workers): 34% voted Conservative, 49% Labour.
The data reveals a clear shift among C2 and DE voters to the Conservatives, signaling the effectiveness of Thatcher’s appeal to the working class.
Gender and Age-Based Voting:
Gender:
Women were generally less supportive of the Conservative Party, but there was a noticeable increase in female support due to social policies such as family support, the Right to Buy, and an appeal to housewives.
However, the number of female MPs elected in 1979 was at a historic low, and many women did not support the idea of a woman prime minister at the time (59% of women polled were opposed).
Age:
The voting patterns showed age-based differences, with younger voters (18-24) more inclined to support Labour, while older voters were more likely to support the Conservatives.
The age breakdown shows that older voters were more likely to align with the Conservative Party’s promises of economic stability and a stronger position in the global marketplace.
Ethnicity:
Ethnic minority voters were more likely to support Labour than the general electorate, though voter turnout among these groups was lower compared to white voters.
Issues such as unemployment and prices were central to voters across all ethnicities, but anti-immigration candidates were generally rejected by minority voters.
There was resistance from one-third of white respondents to the idea of encouraging minority groups to take a more active role in politics, showcasing a division on issues of ethnic integration and representation.
Regional Patterns:
Regional Voting Differences:
The South East of England was more likely to vote Conservative, while the North, Wales, and Scotland were more inclined to support Labour.
However, studies suggest that regional differences were largely socioeconomic. For instance, there was a 44% difference in the likelihood of voting Labour between Wales and the South of England. After controlling for socioeconomic variables, this gap narrowed significantly, indicating that class rather than region was the main determinant of voting behavior.
1997- wider political context, campaign techniques, part policy
Party Policies & Manifestos in the 1997 General Election
Labour Party Manifesto (1997):
Economic Policy:
Anti-inflationary stance with limited government spending.
No income tax rises and a promise to cut VAT (Value Added Tax), aimed at appealing to both the middle and working classes by focusing on tax cuts and financial stability.
Labour also kept restrictions on trade unions and didn’t pursue significant efforts to reverse Thatcher’s privatisation of state-owned industries.
The key promise was economic stability while ensuring a pro-business environment, which marked a shift towards the centre ground (New Labour).
Foreign Policy:
Labour promised closer ties with Europe, recognizing the importance of European integration.
Blair also pledged to maintain the “special relationship” with the USA, signaling continuity in foreign affairs while also stressing a more modern and cooperative international stance.
Domestic Policy:
Devolution: One of the most significant aspects of Blair’s domestic agenda was the devolution of power to Scotland and Wales, laying the groundwork for future self-governance in these regions.
Labour promised to address crime rates, particularly youth crime, which was a key issue that resonated with middle-class voters who might have typically supported the Conservatives.
Key Campaign Theme: “New Labour, New Life for Britain”:
This slogan was central to Blair’s attempt to rebrand the Labour Party as a centrist, modern alternative to the old, more socialist image associated with Labour. It was used to emphasize the New Labour approach, a break from the party’s traditional roots and a focus on social justice, economic stability, and a commitment to capitalism.
Conservative Party Manifesto (1997):
Economic Policy:
John Major’s government lacked the dynamism needed to address public dissatisfaction in 1997. The manifesto was more about continuity than bold new proposals, with fewer eye-catching policies.
One notable proposal was a tax allowance scheme aimed at encouraging traditional nuclear families. This allowed a non-working spouse to pass their tax-free allowance to their working partner. However, this policy was widely seen as out of touch, especially in a society where most women worked, and it reinforced the perception that the Conservative Party wasn’t aligned with the modern, diverse family structures of the UK.
Social Issues:
The manifesto emphasized giving citizens more control and reducing the role of the state, a continuation of Thatcher’s legacy of small government and individual responsibility.
However, this approach failed to resonate with the electorate, who were increasingly looking for a government more attuned to their contemporary concerns about the economy, social justice, and the welfare state.
Overall Message:
The Conservative Party’s manifesto in 1997 lacked the energy and direction needed to win over the electorate after over a decade of Conservative rule, especially given the economic challenges and public dissatisfaction with John Major’s leadership.
Campaign Techniques and Tactics in 1997:
Spin Doctors and Media Manipulation:
Spin played a crucial role in Blair’s strategy. He employed spin doctors to manage and shape public perception, a key feature of his media-savvy leadership.
For example, in March 1997, as John Major called the election, the Labour Party worked with Rupert Murdoch and Stuart Higgins (editor of The Sun) to have the newspaper announce that it would endorse Labour. This was a crucial endorsement given Murdoch’s media empire’s influence on public opinion. The Sun famously declared, “It Was The Sun That Swung It”, after Blair’s landslide victory.
Image Transformation:
Labour made a concerted effort to distance itself from its socialist past, avoiding the term ‘socialist’ and emphasizing its commitment to capitalism under New Labour.
This repositioning was aimed at attracting middle-class voters and reassuring the business community that Labour would not threaten economic stability.
Media Strategy:
Labour’s media strategy focused on softening its image and using more modern, centrist language to convey its policies. This was an effective tactic to appeal to the broader electorate, especially those disillusioned with the Conservative Party.
Avoiding Class Struggles:
Labour moved away from presenting its policies in terms of a class struggle, appealing instead to universal issues such as economic fairness, public services, and youth employment, which had broader cross-class appeal.
Wider Political Context in 1997:
John Major’s Struggles:
By 1997, John Major had become the target of mockery and ridicule. He was often portrayed as dull, uncharismatic, and unable to control his party, especially when dealing with backbenchers.
The media and satirical programs like Spitting Image lampooned Major’s leadership, and he was widely mocked for being indecisive and weak.
Major’s small majority left him vulnerable, especially during debates on the Maastricht Treaty, which caused divisions within the Conservative Party. His inability to manage internal dissent led to the loss of his parliamentary majority, which further undermined his position going into the election.
Labour’s Appeal to Disillusioned Voters:
The Labour Party capitalized on the economic frustrations of the electorate, especially given the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s and the perceived failures of the Conservative government to address issues like unemployment and poverty.
Blair’s Labour Party was seen as modern, dynamic, and in tune with the changing political landscape, in stark contrast to Major’s outdated, incompetent leadership.
2024 election case study- 20219- 2024 parli
2019-24 Parliament
2019 Election: Conservatives win with an 80-seat majority, focusing on “get Brexit done.”
Labour Loss: Labour loses “red wall” seats due to Brexit and Corbyn’s leadership.
Rishi Sunak (2022-2024)
Five Pledges: Halve inflation, grow economy, cut NHS waiting lists, reduce debt, stop illegal immigration.
Failures: Only inflation halved by 2024; public services and migration policies falter.
Reform UK Rise: Disillusioned Tories support new right-wing party.
Conservative Decline
Northern Discontent: Key seats return to Labour, HS2 cuts, tax hikes hurt support.
Internal Turmoil: Johnson resigns in 2022, Truss lasts 49 days; Sunak restores stability but struggles.
Labour Revival
Keir Starmer: Moves Labour away from Corbynism, focuses on stability and public services.
By-Election Wins: Labour regains ground, including seats in Northern England and the Midlands.
Economic Context
Stagnation & High Debt: Rising taxes, inflation, and public service failures contribute to Conservative decline.
