Unit 4: AOS 1 - Population Dynamics

Question 1

Population Density/ Distribution

Answer 1

• The average number of people per km2 = total pop divided by total land area in km2
• Statistics
  
  • % of population
    
    • Oceania - 0.56%
    • North America - 4.73%
    • Latin America and the Caribbean - 8.37%
    • Europe - 9.77%
    • Africa - 17.51%
    • Asia - 59.33%
  • Less than 10% live in the Southern Hemisphere
  • 4 bill live within 200 km of the coastline
  • Antarctica is the only continent without a permanent pop
  • 56% of the pop live in towns and cities - increasing

Question 2

Population Growth

Answer 2

• Current pop 7.9 bill
• Pop growth peaked in 1968 at 2.1%
• 2021 - pop growth was 1.03%
• Top 3 countries by pop growth
  
  • Syria - 5.32%
  • South Sudan
  • Burundi
• Bottom 3 Countries - by pop growth
  
  • Bulgaria - -0.63%
  • Latvia
  • Ukraine

Question 3

Factors Influencing the Population Growth

Natural Increase

Answer 3

• Total amount of births - total amount of deaths in a pop (if negative= natural decrease)

Question 4

Factors Influencing the Population Growth

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

Answer 4

• Defined as the number of births per 1000 people per year in a given pop
• Interconnected with economic conditions - eg. LEDC’s have higher CBR’s
• World average 18.1 - decreasing globally
• Lowest - Japan 7.3
• Highest - Niger 47.5

Question 5

Factors Influencing the Population Growth

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Answer 5

• The amount of births per woman of child bearing age (15-49)
• World average - 2.42 - decreasing globally
• 2.1 TFR is the replacement level ie. pop neither shrinks nor increases
• Pop momentum
  
  • Where places with TFR < 2.1 has a high pop due to large numbers of young people becoming of a child bearing age
• Lowest - South Korea 0.81
• Highest - Niger 7

Question 6

Factors Influencing the Population Growth

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

Answer 6

• Number of deaths per 1000 people
• World average - 7.7
• Highest - Lesotho (Western Africa) 15.4
• High pop of young immigrant workers leads to low CDR
  
  • Emirates - 1.6
• Ageing pop leads to high death rate
  
  • Japan - 10.8

Question 7

Factors Influencing the Population Growth

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

Answer 7

• Average number of deaths of persons less than one year of age per 1000 live birth
• World average - 26.7
• Highest - Sierra Leone - 80.10
• Lowest - Iceland - 0.7%

Question 8

Factors Influencing the Population Growth

Child Mortality Rate (CMR)

Answer 8

• Average number of death of children under the age of five (including infants) per 1000 live births

Question 9

Factors Influencing the Population Growth

Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR)

Answer 9

• Number of mothers who die of pregnancy-related conditions or within 42 days of termination of a pregnancy

Question 10

Factors Influencing the Population Growth

Life Expectancy (LE)

Answer 10

• Defined as the average number of years a person can be expected to live from birth
• World average - 72.7
• Highest - Hong Kong - 85.3
• Lowest - Central African Republic - 53

Question 11

Population Pyramids

Answer 11

Question 12

Malthusian Theory

Answer 12

• 2 principes;
  
  • Pop increases at an exponential rate
• Food production increases at an arithmetic (linear) rate
• Further growth would continue until a ‘Malthusian Crisis’ (food exceeds pop growth) was reached, resulting in;
  
  • Misery ie. famine, epidemic and war
  • Vice ie. perverted, sexual behaviour and infanticide
  • Moral restraint ie. late marriage and celibacy
  • These are known as malthusian crisis
• Malthus has been proven wrong due to;
  
  • Food production is not linear
    
    • Large increase in food production caused by;
      
      • Green revolution - fertilisers, irrigation etc.
      • Gene revolution - GMO’s
      • The blue revolution - commercial fishing
  • Pop growth is not exponential
    
    • Pop growth - 1968 pop growth - 2.1% but now is 1.03%
    • However new malthusian theory could be applied to Bangladesh with limited resources
• Neo-malthusian theory
  
  • Pop will outstrip resources
  • Restricting the number of children will reduce strain on resources
  • Able to make a modern day connection with finite resources leading to environmental degradation and resource depletion
  • Climate change will further negatively impact food production

Question 13

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Answer 13

• Examples
  
  • 1: High Stationary - no countries (pre-industrialisation)
  • 2: Early Expanding- Egypt
  • 3: Late Expanding - Brazil
  • 4: Low Stationary - Japan
  • 5: Declining? - Germany
• Advantages
  
  • Describes pop over time
  • Although general can be applied to MEDC’s
  • Allows simple statements to be made about characteristics
• Disadvantages
  
  • It does not forecast changes or explain progress from one stage to another
  • It does not claim universality
  • Just because a country is in stage 3 does not mean that it will progress to stage 4
  • Natural increase not migration

Question 14

Population Movement

Types of Migrants

Answer 14

• Migrant - a person who moves from one place to another, especially in order to find work or better living conditions
• Naturalised citizens - a person who gains citizenship either naturally or by applying
• Refugees - a person fleeing their country as a result of war, conflict or persecution - have crossed a border - usually persecuted due to religion, race, gender etc.
• Asylum seekers - a person who has applied for registered protection, but has not been processed
• Unauthorised immigrants - a foreign person who is living in a country without having official permission to live there
• International student
• Internally displaced person - a refugee that has not crossed a border
• Stateless person - a person without a nationality

Question 15

Population Movement

International Migrant Definition

Answer 15

• UNESCO - Any person who lives temporarily or permanently in a country where he or she was not born, and has acquired some significant social ties to this country.

Question 16

Population Movement

Host Country

Answer 16

• Advantages
  
  • Boost supply of low cost labour
  • Thus reducing costs of production and maintain economic growth
  • Filling skills vacancies (eg current global nurse shortage)
• Disadvantages
  
  • Language difficulties can cause social difficulties/isolation/alienation
  • Pressure on housing and services
  • Trapped in unskilled job – little career prospects
  • Locals may fear losing jobs and discriminate against migrants

Question 17

Case Study: European Migration Crisis

Overview

Answer 17

• 2015 ~ 1.3 mill refugees and migrants entered Europe
• Source Countries by application to EU
  
  • Syria ~360 000
  • Afghanistan ~ 175 000
  • Iraq ~ 125 000
• Host countries by application
  
  • Germany - 476 000
  • Hungary - 177 130
  • Austria
• Fatalities
  
  • ↑ 3 077 migrants died crossing the Agean sea
• Routes taken
  
  • 1 mill by sea and 34 900 by land
    
    • Not including those entering undetected!
  • Western Mediterranean route
    
    • Many west African peninsular countries (Morocco, Algeria, Ivory Coast) → Northern African Countries → Spain
    • Small amount
  • Central Mediterranean route
    
    • Many Sub-Saharan African countries (Libya, Eritrea, Nigeria) → take off from Libya → Italy
    • 15% took this route
  • Eastern Mediterranean route (main route)
    
    • Middle eastern countries (Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan) → Turkey → Istanbul →Bulgaria or Greece → Austria, Slovenia or Hungary
    • 85% sea arrivals were in Greece (via Turkey)
• Factors causing migration
  
  • Push - Pull
    
    • War/ conflict/ persecution - peace/ safety
      
      • Syrian Civil War
        
        • Iraqi Conflict
        • War in Afghanistan
        • Somali civil war
    • Mandatory recruitment into armed forces - Eritrea and Nigeria
      
      • Males 18-35 flee
    • Poverty - job opportunities
      
      • Kosovo and Serbia
    • Transport links
    • Living conditions - facilities
    • Natural disasters
    • Family location
    • Food supply
• General effects on host countries
  
  • Build facilities
  • Expenses - medication and facilities
  • Cultural mismatch
    
    • Different values and language barriers → increase tensions and pro-nationalist sentiment
  • Could lead to border closures
  • Increase violence towards migrants
    
    • Protests, riots, religious persecution (attack on mosques)
    • Any crime committed by migrants dramatically increases anti-immigration sentiment

Question 18

Case Study: European Migration Crisis

Host Country: Germany

Overview

Answer 18

• Overview
  
  • Total pop - 83 mill
  • Young pop - 14%
  • Working pop - 64%
  • Elderly pop - 22% - increasing
  • The elderly pop - 30.43% by 2050
• August 21, 2015 suspend the Dublin Regulation for Syrian asylum seekers in Germany

Question 19

Case Study: European Migration Crisis

Host Country: Germany

Impacts

Answer 19

• Advantages
  
  • Refugees ↑ working age → slightly lifting ageing pop burden
    
    • 75% refugees ↓ 40 - ½ have a job
  • 2015 - 1% had knowledge of language → 2018 ↑ to 44%
  • 2018 - 17% asylum applications pending → couldn’t work
  • 2018 - 1.8 mill people with a refugee background in Germany
  • 2020 - over 1/2 of refugees found a job
• Disadvantages
  
  • Germany not able to deal with influx of applications → people started integration before their application was accepted
  • Lack facilities
  • 2019 - only 31% of Germans believed that most refugees could successfully integrate in the society
  • ↑ far right anti-immigration party
  • Barriers for foreign qualification recognition
  • Women have poorer prospects, especially those with young children
  • Healthcare access remained low for recently arrived refugees
  • COVID 19 - refugee’s lower paying jobs hit hardest
  • Training and certification is low
• Evaluation
  
  • ↑ healthcare especially due to trauma
  • Skills certification needs to increase and recognition of foreign qualifications
  • Women into workforce especially those with children

Question 20

Case Study: European Migration Crisis

Source County: Eritrea

Overview

Answer 20

• Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1991 after 30 years of war
• Further conflict over border disputes
• → justification of indefinite national service - frozen state of emergency
• 2015 - frozen conflict with Ethiopia
• Drivers for leaving
  
  • Indefinite national service program - 18-50
  • Human rights abuse
  • Expectations and aspirations of self-development
  • →Sense of no hope for the future
    
    • → link with external economic pull factors
  • 3/100 freedom house index
  • Strictest regimes in the world - one-man dictatorship
• How they leave
  
  • Ethiopia - north - refugee camps
  • Sudan → Mediterranean sea
  • Across the sea to Yemen

Question 21

Case Study: European Migration Crisis

Source County: Eritrea

Impacts

Answer 21

• More than 30,000 Eritreans are estimated to have arrived in Europe in 2015
  
  • 3rd largest group of people crossing the Mediterranean into Europe.
• Could lose 50 000 - 500 000 people over next 10 years
• More than 95% of cases submitted from Eritrea were accepted in 2017 - 4th highest % acceptance
  
  • Due to UNHCR guidelines regarding Eritrea, many non-Eritreans claim to be Eritrean so that they are granted entry into Europe
• Emigrated to Germany, Switzerland and Italy
  
  • Have positive impact on economy in future
• Response - gov. 2% income tax for those working abroad - refusal to pay results in denied reentry