Unit 3: Patterns & Theories of Fertility Decline Flashcards
Fertility transition in the developing world 1950-2020
General trends: fertility decline from 6 births/woman to 2-3 in 2020. Driven mainly by India and China
3 mechanisms underpining the fertility decline:
1. Socioeconomic development -> desired family size -> Inc. D for birth control -> Dec. fertility
2. Voluntary family planning -> desired family size -> Inc. contraception -> Dec. fertility
3. Coercive policy -> state-desired family size -> mandated birth control -> dec. fertility
Conventional theories
- Modernisation facilitated the fertility transition through (a) rising costs of children and (b) declining economic value of children operating through changing preferences
- QQ trade-off
Revisionist theories
- Relax the assumption that cost of contraception =0. Now acquisition of a child is fundamentally different than an investment good.
Socioeconomic conditions weakly predict fertility decline
Neighbouring regions started their fertility decline when a region started, regardless of economic status
The historical fertility transition: a guide for economists
price of child quality + price of augmenting the quality of each child + price of a vector for all other commodities = income.
Using the QQ trade-off model, the marginal rate of substitution between quantity and quality depend on ratios of fixed to variable costs for quantity & quality respectively
- Evidence: Reduction in the cost of contraception induces a shift from number of children to quality of children. Reduction in the price of child quality (free, compulsory schooling) shifts from n to q, consistent with results found in Prussia 1840 in a future paper.
Economic factors contributing to the reduction in fertility:
- Reduction in the cost of contraception
- Reduction in the infant mortality rate
