Unit 3 Flashcards
Public Opinon Poll
We ask a sample and make sure it is representative. Ask over 1,000 people.
Confirmation Bias
tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs. We use critical thinking more rigorously to argue against information we agree with more easily
Who gets what they want?
Voters, and typically more wealthy class
Party Identification
Degree to which an individual identifies herself, himself with a political party
Status Quo Bias
US gov’t system has a strong status quo bias. It’s hard to change anything. To change most things you need House, Senate, and President to argue
Voter Turnout
How many people vote - people say that Trump won because Democrats didn’t turn out
GOTV
Get out the Vote - parties spend millions on this
Turnout in US vs. other countries
- Legal reasons
- registration requirement
- not required to vote
- vote on a Tuesday
- more elections in US - Political reasons
- 2 major political parties
- other ways to participate in the US
Turnout in Presidential vs. Midterm Years
It is much higher during Presidential elections
-2018 was the highest midterm turnout in 100 years b/c young ppl don’t like trump
Political Efficacy
How much you understand/know about politics and believe that you can influence what happens in the political role. This increases after college and makes you more likely to vote
Political Interest
Increases because of Education
Socioeconomic Status
Increases because of education, makes you more likely to vote
Electoral College
- Each State has an election
- Each state is worth a certain # of electoral votes
- Each state - most votes in a State gets all the state’s electoral votes
- Need a majority of electoral votes to win
Campaign Messages
Boost Name Recognition
I am like you
I am better b/c status quo is unnacceptable
Caucus
meeting held to choose political candidates (open meeting, voters publicly declare support)
Primary Election
an election in which votes choose the candidates of their party
Electoral College Calculations
votes = # of senators (2) + # of house members
each state has at least 3 electoral votes
unequal in proportion b/c ex. Wyoming vs. CA
Winner take all system
Nebraska is an exception
Swing States
Some of the best states to campaign in; states that either party could win
Why are Campaign Messages negative?
If there is nothing positive for incumbent to say, they have to be negative
what percentage of evangelicals support Trump
80% voted for trump
Krauthammer quote
To understand the working of American Politics, you have to understand that conservatives think liberals are stupid; liberals think Conservatives are evil
What percent of US approve of Trump as president?
43%
Trump’s approval ratings have been lower and more stable tan the historical average
“Do you think Donald Trump should be impeached and removed?”
May - 42% yes
Oct - 51% yes
The strongest driver of public opinion in the US today is…
Political party
Trump is more ______ than previous presidents
polarizing
Trump’s approval by party
79-80% republicans
4-10% dems
30-39% independents
Party ID is important bc
it is more connected to other parts of our identity than before
Types of Trump Voters
Staunch Conservatives: 31% Free Marketers: 25% American Preservationists: 20% Anti-Elites: 19% Disengaged: 5%
How can Trump win again?
By hating on the Democrats
What are white people afraid of and why?
Afraid of becoming a minority
- perceive anti-white discrimination (employment & schools)
- Nation risks losing identity bc of openness to foreigners
- Concern about loss of white majority status
Democrats perceive more…
minority discrimination
The public as a whole thinks:
other groups encounter more discrimination than whites
Trump tends to recast:
every potential scandal and policy issue as a battle against the dems and other outside groups
Whiteness is increasingly:
part of identity; people (white) previously thought of whiteness as normal, and all other races as deviations
What are good predictors of vote choice?
Racial attitudes are better predictors of vote choice than 10 years ago
Younger Republicans vs. Older Republicans
Younger Republicans think more liberally about LGBTQ+, race, etc. Don’t love trump, more diverse, think government should do more to solve problems
Does American Public know much about politics?
no
Framing Effects
situations in which different ways of posing or framing an issue will get different responses
Reciprocity
if we want someone to do something for us, we should be willing to do the same thing for them
Social Desirability
respondent gives the answer that is socially appropriate; not the respondent’s true view
Non-attitudes
respondent doesn’t have a true view, but provides an answer anyway
Measurement Error
respondent provides an answer to a question that is different than the question the survey designer intended
Rule by the People
This ideal is good, but often opinions are uninformed and we don’t know what people want
Elections make leaders responsive to the people
Officials are responsive bc we can fire them
Why is it hard to make changes in the USA
We are biased toward status quo probability of passing legislation/policy sits at 30% for lower income earners policies tend to reflect preferences of higher income earners
Evangelicals
Someone who believes: biblicism, conversionism, crucicentrism, actuism.
In politics, journalists are normally talking about white evangelicals
70% approve of Trump
80% voted for Trump
Evangelicals view the US as a place where they feel mocked and threatened for their beliefs
IV League
Only 15% of kids at IV league are from lower income background
Not economically diverse
trapped in a bubble of privilege
People say Trump won bc
The democrats didn’t turn out
Most important factor in who votes
Education
1. college or not b/c we are having political conversations
2. students are mobilizing each other to vote
provides greater sense of political efficacy
1. individuals belief that he or she can influence what happens in the political world
provides greater interest in politics
Other important factors in who votes
Income 1. earn more, vote more 2. SES, combination of an individual's occupation, income, and education levels Age 1. young - vote less Legal Factors 1. tend to reinforce SES Mobilization 1. parties/campaigns spend $ on people likely to vote
Primary
1st round of elections
Election within the party
Determines who the party’s nominee will be
“The Media”
doesn’t exist because Media is plural
Media Outlet
a specific program, station, website
Media System
all media outlets in a country
Subscription and views of media…
are up in the Trump administration
Government
Doesn’t have much influence on news coverage
1st Amendment (free press, free speech)
Prior Restraint: government preventing publication of material it finds objectionable
Media outlets are privately owned
PBS is govt funded
Journalistic Values
objectivity wasn’t always a value
Partisan Press
Penny press
Broadcast Media
Media Goals
What are the US’s media outlet’s primary goals?
entertain
watchdog rule
make $$$
consequences of media outlets being businesses
Politicians and Media
act differently b/c of the media campaign and govern via ads paid media means politicians need to raise $ Free media - try to get covered sometimes called earned media News management Strategies Sound bytes Talking points Provide dramatic visuals
Agenda Setting Effects
when media cover an issue, we think it is important
oversimplified coverage
30 sec ads
incentives to entertain us
