UK Politics - Voting Behaviour And The Media Flashcards
1
Q
What social factors may influence the way in which people vote?
A
Age, gender, ethnicity, class, religion, profession, education, religion, sexuality
2
Q
What are the different social class status’?
A
AB - upper class and upper middle class with ‘A’ being aristocracy to judges, company executives) down to ‘B’ being doctors, lawyers and teachers
C1 - lower middle class (white collar workers such as secretaries, bank clerks etc)
C2 - ‘skilled’ working class (plumbers, builders, mechanics)
DE - ‘unskilled’ working class (factory workers, manual labourers, farm workers, cleaners)
3
Q
Until the 1970s, how had different social classes voted?
A
Most working class people voted Labour, middle and upper class people voted for conservative and the Liberals had a middle class following
4
Q
What changed after 1970s regarding how social classes voted?
A
People born into working class families are now more likely to go to university, get better paid professions and become middle class
5
Q
What is class de-alignment?
A
When individuals are less likely to identify with a particular social class, so therefore less likely to be expected to vote in a certain way
6
Q
How did the UK vote in recent elections based off of gender?
A
- In 2024 - 34% of males voted Labour compared to 23% for conservative, whilst 35% of females voted for labour compared to 26% for conservative. Most female labour votes came from 18-24 year olds (45%) and 25-34 year olds (47%) however most female conservative voters were over the age of 55 (40%)
- in 2019, among 18-24 year old voters, just 17% of women voted for conservative and 64% voted labour, whereas 22% of men aged 18-24 voted conservative and 64% voted labour
7
Q
How did the UK vote in recent elections based off of age in 2019 and 2024?
A
- in 2019 (out of 41,995 adults who voted), in 18-24s, 56% voted Labour and 21% voted conservatives but in 60-69s, 57% voted conservatives and 22% voted labour
- in 2024, out of 18-24 year olds, 41% voted Labour, 5% voted conservative and 16% voted Lib Dem’s, out of those who are 65+, only 23% voted labour, whilst 43% voted conservatives
8
Q
How did the UK vote in recent elections based off of social class?
A
9
Q
How did the UK vote in recent elections based off of Education in the 2024 general election?
A
- no qualifications - 28% voted Labour, 39% voted conservatives, 18% voted reform
- other types of qualifications - 30% voted labour, 32% voted conservatives, 13% voted reform
- degree or higher - 43% voted Labour, 19% voted conservatives, 7% voted reform
10
Q
How did the UK vote in recent elections based off of Employment status in the 2017 general election?
A
52,615 UK adults who voted in 2017:
- retired - 63% conservative, 24% labour
- working part time - 40% conservative, 44% labour
- working full time - 39% conservative, 45% labour
- not working - 36% conservative, 54% labour
- unemployed - 28% conservative, 54% labour
- full time students - 19% conservative, 64% labour
11
Q
Why do Conservatives gain many votes from females?
A
They do especially well with ‘Stevenage women’ who are in their mid 40s, with kids, high bills to pay and full time working. They believe all governments are the same but are worried about finances and need protection
12
Q
What is a valence factor?
A
The relative success or failure of a governments policies. Voters who vote according to valence factors are making their decision based on wether they like government performance
13
Q
What are the different Behaviour Voting Theories?
A
Rational voter choice theory - voters are able to make a rational choice through manifestos and policy
Governing competency theory - how competent/incompetent and government/opposition is can influence votes
Economic voting model - where voters are influenced based on how the current economy is
Party leadership model - voters are influenced based off of party leaders
14
Q
Why were the 1992, 2010 and 2017 party campaigns significant in the elections?
A
- in 1992, John Major’s decision to abandon stage-managed events and take his soap-box to town centres contrasted Neil Kinnock’s over confident Sheffield Rally, which gave conservative and unexpected win
- in 2017, Jeremy Corbyn’s optimistic rally and manifesto commitments such as ending tuition fees contrasted to Theresa May’s uninspiring campaign in which she introduced ’dementia tax’, which allowed Labour to go from 30% support prior to the election to 40% after it
- in 2019, Labour failed to inspire with their manifesto saying that the UK’s EU withdrawal should be renegotiated, wanting to push for another referendum, whilst Boris wanted to ‘get Brexit done’ therefore gaining more support
15
Q
What is ‘dementia tax’?
A
It pledged that elderly people receiving care who had over £100,000 of assets,would have the excess of it contributed to their care after death
16
Q
What governments have been successful due to competence?
A
- in 1983, MT’s government successfully brought inflation down, fulfilling the manifesto commitment. As well, her leadership in the falklands war in 1982 and her cabinet unity helped
17
Q
What governments have been unsuccessful due to incompetence?
A
- In 1979, James Callaghan proved unable to stop the escalation of strikes during the winter of discontent which was made worse as he misquoted on the topic in the press. This showed incompetence as it cause swing voters to go with MT
- in February 1974, Edward heath called a snap election in response to the miners’ strike which threatened industrial disruption
- in 2024, partygate, the struggle to remain with one leader and the scandal Matt Handcock faced
18
Q
What party leaders were successful in gaining support?
A
- Margaret thatcher in the 1983 election gained a reputation for a strong and focused leadership which contrasted with Michael Foot’s left wing intellectualism which didn’t expand much outside of core voters
- the impact of Nigel farage in 2015 with UKIP around issues like immigration appealed greatly to the working class and took away potential labour voters, helping the Tory’s win marginal seats
- in 2015, an effective snp campaign resulted in labour losing 40 seats north of the border
19
Q
In 2015, what manoeuvre by Ed Miliband tried to build his stature and what was its impact?
A
In the 2015 election, Ed Miliband had built a 9ft stone in public with his campaign promises in order to build himself a greater stature, however it was said to be the ‘heaviest suicide note in history’
20
Q
Who was the 1979 General election between?
A
James Callaghan & Margaret Thatcher
21
Q
Who won the 1979 General Election?
A
Margaret Thatcher (conservative)
22
Q
Why was James Callaghan’s government incompetent at the time?
A
- he lost a confidence vote in the HOC (311/310) in March 1979 which forced him to call and immediate general election
- he had only achieved power through a minority and so his government lacked legitimacy as he had to form a coalition with the Liberals and nationalist parties
- the public felt he was undermining trade unions demands for higher pay
23
Q
What nickname was given to Callaghan?
A
He was named as having a ‘Grandfather like image’ and as being a ‘sunny Jim’
24
Q
How did the winter prior to this election contribute to Callaghan’s defeat?
A
It was known as the ‘winter of discontent’ in which a series of strikes took place from public sector workers who refused to accept his 5% pay gap
25
How did Media coverage contribute to Callaghan’s defeat in 1979?
Whilst abroad on a trip, he had dismissed a question by an interviewer claiming that the country had been in chaos. Following this, the sun’s headline was: ‘crisis, what crisis?’ which made it look as though he wasn’t taking the country’s state seriously
26
How did the 1979 Conservative campaign contribute to their Victory?
- they focused on Labour’s inability to control excessive demands from trade unions and employment
- they also emphasised that they were a party of ‘social unity’, and positive press coverage surrounded MT and the idea that she would offer fresh support and approach to the trade unions resonated with votes
27
What were the key areas of Policy in the 1979 conservative manifesto?
- Margaret thatcher adopted the nickname as the ‘iron lady’ and her policies were the curb to power they had as she believed labour was leading the country to a standstill
- they said they would strike a balance of trade unions to end the winter of discontent
- they wanted to push for people to become home owners, supporting family life
- they wanted to uphold parliament to the rule of law
28
What were the key areas of Policy in the 1979 Labour manifesto?
- they aimed to keep a ‘curb’ on inflation and prices as well as improving industrial relations that they hammered out with the TUC
29
What was the turnout and why was it so high for the 1979 election?
Due to a tight conservative poll which encouraged the tory electorate to vote
30
Why did conservatives gain so many Liberal votes in the 1979 election?
The former liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe was on trial for conspiracy to moderate his ex-lover and this further damaged relations between him and his voters
31
What were the results of the 1979 election?
Conservatives got 339 seats (43.9% of popular vote), labour got 269 seats (36.9% of the popular vote) and liberals got 11 seats (13.8% of popular vote)
32
How did the C2 class vote in the 1979 election?
41% voted for conservative which was a 15% increase from 1974, 41% voted for labour which was an 8% decrease and only 15% voted for liberals which was a 5% decrease
33
How did the DE class vote in the 1979 election?
34% voted conservatives which was a 12% increase from 1974, 49% voted labour which was an 8% decrease and Lib Dem’s got 13%, showing this election showed a huge increase in class dealignment
34
How was John Major’s government incompetent prior to the 1997 election?
- They faced scandals such as the cash for questions and accusations of sleaze
- they had internal party divisions due to the fact major couldn’t control the eurosceptic faction in the party
- prior economic recessions and unemployment rising to 3.1mn in 1981
- the ‘winter of discontent’ led to strikes against Tory
35
What was ‘cash for questions’?
Two Tory backbenchers were alleged to have accepted payments via a lobbyist in return for asking questions in the House of Commons
36
Why was Labour’s 1997 campaign successful?
- their idea and image was revamped to present voters with traditional values in a modern setting
- Tony Blair followed US president Clinton’s lead by setting up a rapid rebuttal unit
37
How was the Tory campaign in 1997 unsuccessful?
They were labelled as the ‘nasty party’ and John major was mocked in cartoons and on tv satirical shows as being grey and uncharismatic
38
Why was the 1997 Conservative manifesto not appealing?
They didn’t represent where the UK was as most women worked and John major wanted to continue previous policies based off of giving citizens control and reducing the role of the state, showing him as uncharismatic
39
What were Tony Blair’s appealing policies in the 1997 manifesto?
- no rise in income tax rates
- cut VAT on heating to 5%
- cut the NHS waiting list by 100000
- keep a low and stable inflation of 2.5% or less
- they promised to enforce the ‘golden rule’ of public spending - borrowing to invest and not fund current expenditure
40
What was John Major’s most eye catching policy?
The tax allowance proposal to encourage traditional nuclear families, where a non-working partner could pass their tax free allowance to their working spouse
41
What were the results of the 1997 election?
The turnout was 71.4% which was a decrease from 1992. Labour won 418 seats to conservatives 165 and labour had 44% of the popular vote compared to Tory’s 31% which was a 12% decrease from 1992
42
What were the key CAGE factors of the 1997 election?
- labour got 59% of the DE class vote and 31% of the AB class which was a 12% increase
- labour received 49% of votes from 18-24 yo’s and 41% of 65+ voters chose labour which was a 7% increase
- 45% of males voted labour which was an 8% increase and 44% of women voted labour which was a 10% increase
- 66% of Asian people voted labour, 82% of black people voted labour but only 10% of white people
43
In 2019, why was the Johnson government more competent than labour?
- Johnson was seen in the media as a character
- they focused on ‘getting Brexit done’ which contrasted to Jeremy corbyn who wanted a re-negotiation of terms and a 2nd referendum. Johnson’s approach appealed to a lot of the electorate who didn’t want the hassle
- conservatives did well in more euro-sceptic areas and had roots in coal and heavy industries
44
In the 2019 election, why was labour seen as incompetent?
- since 2017 where corbyn’s support rose from 30-40% by the election, his ideas around Brexit made him weak
- the Labour Party were badly split between the socialist left wing, the ‘soft left’ and the right of the party, causing internal disputes, resignations and confusion among the electorate
- accusations of anti-semitism - corbyn often refused to comment
45
Where did labour thrive in 2019?
On pro EU areas and younger voters
46
Why was Johnson’s campaign in 2019 successful?
He attacked corbyn regularly on his Brexit stance which was nuclear to many voters - ‘get Brexit done’. This cut through ‘red wall’ Brexit voters who were tired of political deadlock since the referendum
47
Why was the Corbyn campaign in 2019 unsuccessful?
- he had a less impassioned speaking style
- the Labour Party were marred by allegations of anti semitism and many voters thought he didn’t rebuke them well
48
What aspects of the 2019 Tory manifesto were appealing to the electorate?
- they spoke about 50000 additional nurses to the nhs, 20000 more police officers, 6000 more doctors
- they had a promise to ‘level up’ investing in former industrial areas largely in the north and Scotland
49
How was the 2019 labour manifesto appealing?
They focused on austerity which was corbyn’s greatest strength, on nationalising key industries, implemented a new Green deal to tackle climate change and expanded public services by increasing spending
50
What were the failures of the 2019 labour manifesto?
It was more radical than 2017 which allowed Tory to say it was unaffordable
51
What were the results of the 2019 election?
- Tory broke the ‘red wall’ Labour seats where Brexit was a major issue and had lots of support
- labour were reduced to 202 seats (lowest since 1935) and only 32.1% popular vote
- the tories won 365 seats and 43.1% of the popular vote
- SNP dominated Scotland gaining 48 seats
- Lib Dem’s had a continued decline, gaining only 11 seats and 11.6% vote
52
What failures did labour have in the CAGE categories in 2019?
- they lost across all social classes for the first time ever and had 47% support from the DE grade. They lost heavily amongst working class voters - class dealignment evident
- some regions such as industrial northern towns where labour usually thrive were lost to the SNP, breaking the link
53
What key ‘red wall’ seats did labour lose in 2019?
Ashfield, held since 1955, Bassetlaw, held since 1925 and Wakefield, held since 1932
54
How did voters in 2019 vote based off of age and education?
The Conservatives comfortably outperformed Labour across all social grades, doing better amongst C2DE voters (48%) than they did amongst ABC1 voters (43%). Labour performed the same amongst both social grade groups (33%).
- Labour did much better than the Conservatives amongst those who have a degree or higher, by 43% to 29%, however The Conservatives won amongst the much larger group of voters who do not hold a degree, and they also outperformed Labour by more than two to one (58% to 25%) amongst those whose highest level of education is GCSE or lower
55
How was the conservatives government incompetent in the 2024 election?
- ‘partygate’ prior to Sunak left the tories unpopular
- series of failed leadership
- Rishi Sunak’s wife avoided up to £20mn in tax
- yougov found that 61% of people asked felt the current government was incompetent
56
What was successful about the 2024 Labour campaign?
Starmer’s campaign was referred to as ‘starmergeddon’
57
What was unsuccessful about the 2024 conservative campaign?
The partygate scandal prior to Rishi Sunak irreparably marred conservatives and their campaign, however Sunak’s disconnection with the public due to his overwhelming wealth was also prominent
58
What policies on the 2024 labour manifesto were appealing?
- they wanted to expand the NHS capacity to 40000 more appointments/week
- build 1.5mn new homes by 2029
- 100% clean energy by 2030
- scrap university tuition fees eventually
- invest in policing and tackling crime
- free school meals for primary school pupils
59
What were the key promises of the 2024 conservative manifesto?
- Sunak pledged to 1/2 inflation
- cut tax for pensioners via the triple lock
- 120000 new doctors and 40 new hospitals
- £17bn invest in policing tax cuts by 2030
- half net migration and enact Rwandan scheme
- increase defence spending from 2% to 2.5%
- net zero emissions by 2050
60
How was the conservative government competent in the 2024 election?
GDP growth was a 0.5% for 2023
61
What were the key CAGE factors in the 2024 general election?
- even in the AB and C1 class, labour beat conservatives, breaking the link, as for Ab labour got 36% of them compared with Tory’s 25% (same with C1)
- Labour received the highest vote across all ages apart from 65+, showing how reliant conservatives were on their traditional voters
- those of ethnic minorities: 46% voted labour and only 17% voted conservative and of white voters, 33% voted labour compared to 26% conservatives
62
How did Tony Blair’s economic promises result in support for the Labour Party in 1997?
He promised to keep a low and stable inflation rate of 2.5%, to only borrow to invest rather than funding current expenditure, and to get 250000 unemployed people to work
63
What is classed as ‘old media’?
Newspapers, magazines, tv, radio, the press
64
What is classed as ‘new media’?
Internet/website and social media platforms
65
What is the definition of media and how are they powerful?
It is the plural of ‘medium’, meaning middle and it acts as an ‘institution’, telling citizens about what politicians are up to. This makes them powerful as they can choose what to report, how to report it and this helps people to form political opinions
66
What rules are put in place for TV and radio systems?
There is a balance meaning political sides can’t be taken
67
Where has T.V news been shown to be bias?
- in 2019, An RT broadcaster backed by Kremlin was fined £200000 by OFCOM due to its biased reporting on the war in Syria and the Salisbury poisonings of Sergei and Yulia
- in 2021, GB news was launched with an acknowledgment of right wing bias as it had presenters such as Nigel farage and mark steyn
68
What is the Leveson report?
It provided rules on how newspapers and magazines should behave as they have no requirement for balance
69
What were the leveson report proposals?
70
How have right wing tabloid headlines had influence?
In 2015, the sun posted the headline ‘save our bacon’ against Ed miliband and the daily mail spoke out about the SNP’s economic policies saying, ‘don’t let a class war zealot and the snp destroy our economy’
71
Why are newspapers influential?
- They aren’t bound by rules of impartiality and so have a political agenda and may contain exaggeration and sensationalism
- they are highly attractive to business tycoons such as Rupert muredoch as it gives him the opportunity to shape headlines with his right wing agenda
72
In 1992, how did the sun’s readership prove decisive in a conservative victory?
They had a circulation of 3,570,562mn daily therefore was read by about 8.75 mn people, which was significantly more than daily mirror in second with 2,900,000
73
Impact of newspaper bias on the EU referendum:
- 2 weeks prior to the referendum, only 10% of news paper articles were pro remain; 36% were pro leave
- 70% of the sun and daily express readers voted leave; 66% of daily mail voters and 55% of daily telegraph voters
74
How did the media influence the 1992 general election?
- The sun attacked the labour leader Neil Kinnock before the election saying ‘if Kinnock wins will the last person to leave turn the lights off’ and after the election saying ‘it was the sun wot won it’
- a week before the general election, Neil Kinnock held an extravagant Sheffield rally where he was greeted by 10000 people, loud music and said in an American accent ‘we’re alright’. This was seen as a media blunder and showed Kinnock was too confident prematurely
75
What are the arguments to suggest newpaper readership didn’t impact the EU referendum?
the four most read anti-EU papers had a combination circulation of 3.2mn people in 2016 yet 17.4mn people voted leave
76
How did the 1992 labour manifesto contribute to their defeat?
77
In 2017, why was the conservative manifesto unappealing?
78
How did the media influence the 1997 general election and result in a Tony Blair victory?
- As of march 2020 the Sun’s sales were at 1,210,915 however in 1997, their sales were at 3,877,097 and despite being a rightwing tabloid they backed Tony Blair
- the press was deeply hostile to Major from 1992-1997
- in 1996, a poll was conducted and had labour at 60% and conservatives at 21%
79
What might newspapers sales decrease?
Free online news sites attract a wide audience
80
How did the media influence the 2010 election and lead to a coalition?
The political environment was much more in favour of opposition parties as opposed to the Labour government due to the global economic recession at the time, therefore many old labour voters would’ve been persuaded to vote liberal. Also televised leader debates saw Nick clegg perform very well
81
How did the media influence the 2015 general election lead to a labour defeat?
according to the media standards trust, 77% of tabloid leaders were hostile towards Ed Miliband and some mocked him, such as the sun, who used a photo of him eating a bacon sarnie the day before the election, with the headline saying ‘save our bacon’ and the bylines saying ‘this is the pigs Ed has made of a helpless sarnie’
82
How did the media help the conservatives win in 2015?
- Negative attitudes in newspapers resulted in some conservative policies being changed very quickly such as George Osborne’s proposed tax on hot takeaway food
- conservatives spent a reported £100000/month on Facebook advertising
83
How does the 2017 election show that media influence may be unfounded?
Tabloids were very hostile to corbyn yet due to his optimistic ‘for the many not the few’ campaign, support for the party increased by 9.6%
84
How did the media have influence from 2019-2022, mainly critiquing conservatives?
- in early 2022, Johnson’s reputation was marred by the ‘partygate’ scandal
- liz truss suffered relentless press coverage especially in reaction to her budget and after the value of the £ plummeted, kwarteng was sacked and the daily mail ran headlines saying ‘get a grip’ whilst the guardian said ‘from ‘best’ budget to dead parrot’
85
How did the media positively portray Boris Johnson?
The press began to focus on his response to Russia vs Ukraine in which he gave £1pm in military support in June 2022 which was announced at the nato leaders’ summit
86
How did the media influence in 2024 result in a labour victory?
They secured lots more TV coverage, with starmer getting 235 press mentions in total (40.2%) however lots of this was focused on internal disputes over Diane Abbotts candidacy
87
How did the media influence in the 2024 election contribute to a conservative defeat?
Even right wing tabloids put Tory under fire with only the daily mail and daily express running positive coverage - the Sunday express called him a lame duck
88
How did headlines in the 1979 election contribute to a conservative victory?
Tabloids were deeply critical of Callaghan after industrial action caused huge unrest and the sun even abandoned labour in favour of conservatives and even put out a headline saying ‘crisis, what crisis’ in response to him being asked about Britain’s crisis when on holiday. Also public press favoured MT due to her response to trade union problems
89
How did MORI contribute to the 1979 election?
They interviewed 1085 adults aged 18+ in 54 constituencies and the tories had 52% support whilst labour only had 39%
90
What suggests the media didn’t influence the 1979 election?
There was already social unrest due to industrial strike action which led to the ‘winter of discontent’
91
How did headlines influence the 2017 election between Corbyn and May?
The sun were heavily opposed to corbyn, publishing headlines saying ‘don’t chuck Britain in the cor-bin’ whilst the daily express said that ‘corbyn doesn’t believe in Britain’. He was also slandered for his anti-semitism claims
92
What shows that the media didn’t influence the 2017 election?
Corbyn’s support increased by 9.6% and labour’s campaign slogan, ‘for the many not the few’ was favourable and they gained 40% of the popular vote and 30 additional seats. In 2024, corbyn won a seat in Islington’s North as an independent which shows his reputation wasn’t tarnished by media
93
What impact did the media have in the 2024 general election?
The sun swapped to endorse labour and ran headlines of ‘time for a new manager’ and ‘drown and out’ as did the Sunday times paper which are both owned by Murdoch. There was also an appeal for starmer being a ‘different kind of politician’ which promoted change that most wanted anyway
94
What shows that the media didn’t have much of an impact on the 2024 election?
Turnout was only 60%
95
How has new media been shown to replace the old press?
In 2015, conservative spent £10000/month on Facebook advertising and in 2016 the independent closed its print edition to become purely digital
96
What could online media lead to?
An echo chamber
97
OFCOM findings in 2021 on how people access news:
79% of adults use tv, 89% of 16-24 year olds said their main source was the internet and 85 of ethnic minority people access their news from the internet rather than tv
98
In what elections were PMQ’s important?
In 1994-97, Tony Blair was highly successful against major’s declining party grip and in 2010 Cameron made confident attacks on brown
99
What were the positives and negatives of Tony Blair’s news coverage?
Although he captured the mood of the nation with his ‘peoples princess’ speech after the death of princess diana, his authority was ruined in 2003 by footage of the bloodshed war in Iraq
100
How did interviews marr labour in 2015 and 2019?
In 2015, Ed Miliband said ‘he’ll yeah I’m tough enough which reinforced negative views, and in 2019 during an interview with Andrew Neil, corbyn failed to dispel antisemitism allegations
101
What shows that televised leader debates don’t hold much significance
In 2010, Nick clegg was highly popular in the television leadership debates, however in the election they lost 5 seats and only gained 1% of the vote - showing that the debates only reinforce political views
102
What are the problems with social media news?
The internet isn’t bound by OFCOM so fake stories may proliferate such as the anti-vaccination conspiracy theories and stories may be published with no provenance
103
What was the tale of the two Gordon’s?
In April 2010, labour PM Gordon brown did a walkout in Rochdale however left his microphone on and recorded himself saying that Duffy was a ‘sort of bigoted woman’ after she said EU migrants were flooding the NHS. This lead to the sun criticising him, with the headline ‘brown toast’
104
What are the three most common opinion poll sites?
Yougov, MORI and populus
105
How do opinion polls work and what are they for?
They take a cross-section of society, jobs, gender etc and ask for their views, and the reason for them is to test the mood and political climate of an electorate
106
Why are opinion polls useful?
They can determine public attitudes on specific issues and determine the results of an election or referendum
107
How do opinion polls have a beneficial impact on UK politics?
- They demonstrate changing attitudes on important issues, ensuring parties are informed about public opinion, shown in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when a yougov poll showed the % of people viewing Russia negatively jump from 34%-64%
- in 1992, opinion polls suggested a hung parliament however voter turnout was very high (77.7%) because voters felt their vote really mattered
- in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, opinion polls suggested a tight race which provoked an 84.6% turnout rate
108
How have opinion polls been shown to impact UK politics negatively?
- They din’t always reflect public opinion, meaning parties may campaign and make policy on inaccurate information, shown in 2019, the website tactical.votes used polling data to show anti-Tory voters whether they were better voting labour or Lib Dem’s
- in 2015, 56 national opinion polls suggested voters wanted to remain in the EU and 10 voted leave. Therefore when Cameron called the referendum he was highly confident he would win
- in 2017, most polls gave tories a commanding lead over labour which arguably reduced the urgency with which conservatives campaigned, contrasting to Jeremy Corbyn’s enthusiastic campaign
109
How was the 2014 Scottish independence referendum influenced by opinion polls?
Regarding a last minute joint pledge between Cameron, Clegg and Miliband, which promised to give the Scottish parliament ‘extensive new powers’ if a majority of voters opposed independence. This promise was influenced by a Yougov poll released 10days before the referendum that suggested for the first time that the ‘yes’ campaign was ahead
110
How did short term issues affect the 2024 general election?
According to a yougov poll, the top 3 factors influencing the vote were: the cost of living at 45%, Health at 34% and Economy at 32%
111
According to Yougov, how did polls on party Leaders show the impact of leaders’ influence the 2024 election?
- 63% viewed Sunak as incompetent
- 40% viewed starmer as incompetent
- - the proportion of those considering a vote for reform UK jumped from 45% - 54% after Nigel Farage became leader
112
Why is it unclear how campaigns influenced the voting behaviour in the 2024 election?
According to Yougov,, even on May 23rd, around 65% of voters had either definitely made up on their mind or were ‘unlikely’ to change and a further 28% had a good idea of how to vote. Only 7% said they were as likely to change their mind as not whilst 10% ‘didn’t know’
