UK POLITICS - Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
What are the 7 long-term determinants of voting behaviour?
- Class
- Partisanship
- Gender
- Age
- Ethnicity
- Region
- Education
In the 1964, what percent of W/C people voted Lab and what percent of M/C people voted Con?
- 64% of W/C people voted Lab
- 62% of M/C people voted Con
In 1966, what percentage of the electorate were ‘class voters’?
66%
What is the decline in relationship between class and voting called?
Class dealignment
What was the fall in percent of ‘class voters’ between 1979 and 2010?
13% (51%-38%)
What are the four factors that lead to class dealignment?
- Changing class system: decrease in a traditional working class of manual labour (50% in 1961 to 30% in 2013)
- Cross-class locations: more difficult to judge class, decrease in trade unions and increase in home ownership
- Embourgeoisement: many working class people think of themselves as middle class
- Sectoral divisions: voters are more influenced by the sector they are in due to austerity
Give evidence that class is no longer a strong factor in voting behaviour.
At the 2024 general election, 2% less DE people voted labour than AB, bucking the usual class trends; additionally, only 4% less DE voters voted conservative than Labour.
Give evidence that class is still a strong factor in voting behaviour and why?
People who own their housing outright were more than 2x more likely to vote conservative than renters (37% and 14%); additionally, they were almost half as likely to vote Labour (25% and 42%).
What is partisanship?
When people vote for a party due to long term feelings of connection and attachment, developed social learning at home, school and the workplace.
Give evidence of the decline of party loyalty.
In 1964, 44% of voters ‘identified very strongly’ with a party; in 2005, this number fell to 10%. Additionally, in 2019, voters were 2x as likely to not identify with a party than not identify as Remainer of Leaver.
What is partisan dealignment?
The process by which individuals no longer long-term identify themselves with a party
What are the four factors that lead to partisan dealignment?
- Increased education: such as with the minimum school leaving age being increased to 16 by Heath’s Conservative government, people have been encouraged to question traditions
- Impact of the media and technology: voters have a wider variety of accessible political information and are therefore less reliant on party supporting newspapers
- Ideological changes: politics of the main parties have shifted, alienation some traditional voters (One Nationers and Social Democrats)
- Valence issues: other issues have become more prevalent (Brexit in 2019)
Give evidence of party realignment.
Some smaller parties have experienced strong identification, with 5% of Reform votes due to “I like/trust Nigel Farage”. Whilst there is still a small groups of party loyalists: 5% of conservative votes were because “I always vote for them/am a Conservative member.”
What was the traditional gender voting (giving an example) and its explanation?
Women traditionally voted conservative more than men, more or equal women voted conservative than men in every election between 1979 and 2001
- This may be because women did not go to work and people who have a lower education level are more likely to vote Conservative. It may also be the Conservative Party’s traditional emphasis on stability and safety.
Give evidence that gender is no longer a strong factor in voting behaviour and why.
The gender gap has decreased wildly, 1% more women voted Labour at the 2024 general election.
- This may be due to increasing levels of education and the recent instability of Conservative governments.
Give evidence that gender is still a strong factor in voting behaviour
- There is still a strong gender gap between the young; at the 2019 election, women 18-24 were 20% more likely to vote Labour than men the same age (46% and 65%).
- Gender still affects how people vote for smaller parties; 3% more men didn’t vote LabCon than women in 2024 (42% and 39%), though this may have just been because they were 5% more likely to vote Reform.
- They were also 3% more likely to vote Conservative, possibly showing a prevailing trend
How do different ages vote and why?
Older voters are more likely to be conservative and younger voters are more likely to vote Labour. This may be because older voters value security (that the Conservatives traditionally offer) and may also lose their youthful idealism that characterises leftism.
Give evidence that age is still a strong factor in voting behaviour.
In the 2019 election, for every 10 years older a person is, they are 9% more likely to vote Con and 8% less likely to vote Lab.
Give evidence that age is no longer a strong factor in voting behaviour.
At the 2024 GE, 25-49 year olds were 3% more likely to vote Labour than 18-24 year olds (44% vs. 41%), though they were still more likely to vote Conservative as well (14.5% vs. 8%).
However this may be due to increased turnout of Conservatives over fear of a dominant Labour government and as such is an exception.
How do different ethnic groups traditionally vote, giving an example?
BAME voters are more likely to vote Labour than Conservative; in 2001, Labour had a 67% lead among black voters and 58% among Asian voters. However this may be due to the link between ethnicity and social class.
Give two examples of ethnicity affecting voting behaviour.
- Labour 2005: Blair lost a large amount of the Muslim vote due to supporting the Iraq War
- Labour 2017: Corbyn lost a large percentage of the Jewish vote due to accusations of antisemitism towards the Labour Party
Give a counterargument to the effect of ethnicity on voting behaviours.
It is more that ethnicity affects how people react to short-term factors like leadership (Corbyn) or events (7x more white people voted for Reform, 34% of reform votes were to “control immigration”).
How do different regions traditionally vote and why?
There used to be a stark North (Labour) and South (Conservative) divide, this may have been a reflection of class as the South has traditionally been wealthier and this links to voting Conservative.
Give evidence that region is a strong determinant of voting behaviour.
However, in 2024, aside from London, the South was much more likely to vote LibDem or Conservative whereas the North was more likely to vote Labour or SNP, reflecting previous trends.
Give evidence that region isn’t a strong determinant of voting behaviour.
Valence factors have taken precedence in recent elections; with the ‘red wall’ (a series of Labour safe seats in the midlands) changing between parties twice in the past 2 elections. Even regional parties like the SNP are not safe, their seats dropping 75% in 2024, due to LabCon refusal of another referendum.
Why may education be a strong voting determinant?
Campbell (1960) argues that education affects people’s attitude, interests and values, making them more likely to vote for progressive parties, with Labour’s vote among degree holders double the conservatives; it also makes them less likely to be susceptible to populism, why only 7% of degree holders voted ReformUK.
How might education not be a strong determinant of voting behaviours?
2024 saw changes opposite to what we’d expect, Conservatives lost 27% among non-degree holders and Labour gained 5% among this group, as well as losing 5% among degree holders. This may show the importance on short-term factors, combined with educated voters moving to more progressive parties like Green.
What are the 8 short-term determinants of voting behaviour?
- Valence
- Governing Competence
- Rational choice
- Issue Voting
- Leaders
- Party Image
- Campaigns
- Manifestos and Policies
Define electoral volatility.
The degree of change in voting behaviour between elections.
Give an example of electoral volatility.
Between the 2019 and 2024 elections, the Labour swing went from -124 majority to 86 extra seats, a change of 210 seats.
Define valence.
Issues that have a common agreement, where the choice rather lies in who is most likely to deliver, e.g. energy crisis.
Give an example of the effect of valence on voting.
In 2019, it was judged that Conservatives would be able to take on Brexit, taking a harder stance than Labour’s second referendum so gained an 80-seat majority.
Why is valence so important?
Valence is what wins over swing voters who aren’t ideologically minded but rather care more for competence and stability.
How may valence not be important?
Sometimes people may agree with the possible solution but not believe the party will be able to deliver
- Yougov reported 20% of voters tactically voted in 2024, smaller parties underrepresented
- 34% of votes for Labour were to “get rid of the conservatives”
Quote about governing competence:
“Governments lose elections, oppositions do not win them.”
Define governing competence.
The party of the day loses an election based on their performance in government rather than the success of the opposition.
Why may governing competence be important?
People are given more information about the governing party, whereas the failings or successes of the opposition is less widely reported.
Give an example of governing competence winning an election, as well as a counter example.
- The 2024 election was largely won due to loss of faith in the Conservative’s economic plan, due to Truss’ Mini-budget or BoJo’s corrupt covid contracts
- Blair still won the 2005 election (31 seat majority) despite massive outcry and protest over the invasion of Iraq
Outline rational choice voting as well as a criticism
This suggests that people vote based on what is in their overall best personal interests, taking valence into account - retired 3x more likely to vote conservative than unemployed, in 2024.
- This assumes voting as logical, when often it is ideological; in 2019, 41% of DE voters voted Conservative despite their policy of austerity
Outline issue voting, giving an example.
This suggests that people will vote for a party based on a single issue that it’s important to them, this can be rational or irrational such as with Brexit.
Why is Issue Voting so important?
Depending on the prevalence of the issue, it is a great way to win over swing voters. Additionally, those that do not adopt popular issues are doomed to fail.
Give two examples of issue voting.
- 1979: the Winter of Discontent (economic turmoil alongside strikes and a harsh winter) helped Thatcher win despite Callaghan’s popularity
- 2019: Corbyn’s milquetoast Brexit plan may have lead to loss of 60 seats
Why may issue voting not be important?
Many people do not stay updated on the news, with less than half the UK talking about politics more than a few times a month, so many are not informed enough on issues to vote specifically about them - only 6% of people voted Labour based on policy.
What has led to the increased importance of leaders in voting?
Presidentialism
What three attributes do leaders need to be successful? Give an example for each.
- Accessibility: Blair, known for his calm and relaxed demeanour
- Trust: Blair, known for being widely trusted pre-Iraq
- Strength: Thatcher, known for being the “Iron Maiden”
Give a counter-point to the importance of leaders.
In 1979, ‘Sunny Jim’ Callaghan was 20 points ahead of Thatcher in the polls due to his likeability but lost the election, giving Thatcher a majority of 21 seats. However, this may have been because of a lack of emphasis on strength.
What increased the importance of leaders? Give a counter-argument.
The introduction of TV debates in 2010 wildly increased the importance of leaders as they were seen as the representatives of their party, Nick Clegg being predicted to wildly increase the number of LibDem seats due to the effect of LabCon leaders repeating “I agree with Nick.” However, despite more than 50% of viewers believing that Clegg won the first debate, the LibDems lost 5 seats in the election.
Give three examples of how Ed Milliband demonstrated the importance of leaders.
- The Bacon Sandwich
- The Ed Stone
- The ‘Tough’ Incident
How is party image important?
How a party is perceived will affect valence and governing competence voting, as well as the perception of the leader.
What was the issue with the Conservative Party’s image in the 90’s?
Due to the ‘Sleaze’ and divisions over Europe, Major’s Conservatives had developed a reputation as the “nasty party” (Theresa May, Chairman) and were associated for an apathy towards the struggling.
What was good about the Labour Party’s image in the 90’s?
New Labour was united under Blair and made to appear sleek, modern, and accessible using pagers and shaving off ‘old fashioned’ mustaches.
How did 2024 demonstrate the importance of party image?
The election was largely won due to the loss of trust in the conservatives amid the failings of Brexit and the financial crisis, as well as multiple scandals such as Partygate.
Give a counterargument to the importance of party image.
Most people are most acquainted with their party leaders so the scandals of others may be filed away, such as Blair being able to sweep his deput prime minister punching someone in the face under the rug.
Why aren’t campaigns considered to have a strong effect on elections?
It is believed that election campaigns tend to reinforce pre-existing views rather than change them, as those who watch campaigns are those invested in politics, usually not swing voters.
- Although praised by the media, Labour’s television-friendly 1987 campaign hardly dented Margaret Thatcher’s political domination and a 102-seat majority.
- In 2019, Conservatives ran an effective campaign focussing on Brexit, but polling hardly changed, showing that most had already made up their mind
Why may campaigns be important?
Campaigns act as the final opportunity for parties to change their image, hammer home a message, or mobilise a group. All of which are exacerbated by the proximity to elections.
How did Major’s campaign gain him a majority in 1992?
The previously ‘grey’ Major eschewed high-tech strategies and addressed a crowd whilst standing on a shoebox’; appearing accessible, it earned him an 11-seat majority.
How did the 2017 election challenge ideas about the unimportance of campaigns?
Corbyn began the race 20 points behind May; however, through his ability to enthuse young voters, May managed to lose a majority and govern with the help of the DUP.
Why may manifestos be important?
Positional theory argues that people vote based on how closely aligned the government is with their beliefs; they are voting based on the direction they want society to go in, so policies are important.
How did Brexit demonstrate the importance of manifestos in 2019?
- 65% of leavers voted Conservative
- 55% of remainers voted Labour
How did Labour’s manifesto hurt them in 1987 and how did they redeem themselves in ‘97?
Labour’s ‘87 manifesto promised increased nationalization, public spending, and taxation: a misread of the room that lost them their third election.
However, Blair’s populist promises (such as getting 250,000 under-25s off benefits) won them the election in ‘97.
Why may policies not be important
People may agree with policies but not see them as achievable (Labour 2019) or as achievable by that party (smaller parties)
Give an example of manifestos not being important.
Corbyn’s manifesto contained wildly popular policies (such as increasing pensions at the same rate as inflation), however still lost due to not being seen as achievable.
Why was there such a low turnout in 2001?
Blair was incredibly popular by this point, many people saw it as unnecessary as his victory was basically assured, so didn’t feel the need to.
Why was there such a low turnout in 2010?
People still felt helpless: they were voting between a government that hosted a global economic recession and an opposition that wanted austerity, leading to a turnout of 66%
What was roughly the turnouts of elections in the 80’s and 90’s”
70-80%
What may turnout be the product of?
Other factors, such as camapigns, may be important and lead to a lack of turnout.
- The electoral commission found that, in 2001, “people had voted despite the campaign, not because of it.”
Why is turnout important?
Certain demographics (such as the old or m/c) are more likely to vote for certain parties, if they are likely to have higher turnout then the votes will be skewed.
What four things must you refer to when answering a question about media influence?
- Newspapers
- Television and radio
- The Internet
- Opinion polls
What newspapers are those in higher classes more likely to read?
- The Guardian,
- The Times,
- The Financial Times,
- The Telegraph
What newspapers are those in the working class more likely to read?
- The Sun,
- The Daily Mirror,
- The Daily Star
What % of over 65s use newspapers as a source of news? And for 16-24s?
65: 58%
16-24: 20%
What % of ABC1 use newspapers as a source of news? And for C2DE?
ABC1: 41%
C2DE: 34%
Why is the class and age gap of newspaper readers important?
ABC1 and over-65s, those that read newspapers, have higher turnouts to elections so there may be some relations.
Define the ‘Agenda setting’ theory and give an example.
Newspapers help decide votes by ‘framing’ certain issues and give other issues more attention, highlighting any policy or leadership in relation
- In 2017, the media’s focus on Brexit pushed into focus Corbyn’s indecisive plan and allowed May to prevail
Define the ‘Reinforcement Theory’ and give an example.
Newspapers are echo chambers for readers’ pre-existing values, they are incapable of changing them and readers will ignore anything they disagree with; despite the Mail running a 17-page anti-Corbyn feature in 2017, the same % of their readers voted Labour.
Give an argument and a counter-argument for the influence of newspapers on the outcome of elections, and an example for each.
Agenda setting: Increase in partisan and class dealignment = undecided voters who can be influenced by newspapers; in 2015, 44% of voters were undecided, a record number.
- Reinforcement theory: People often go against what the papers tell them to do: 30% of Mail readers voted for Labour in 1997 despite being encouraged not to.
Give an argument and a counter-argument against the influence of newspapers on the outcome of elections, and an example for each.
People are reading newspapers less so they lose their influence; in 2015, television was almost 3x as influential as papers in informing people about the election (62% Vs. 25%)
- Papers are still popular with the groups that vote the most; 41% of ABC1 and 58% of 65+
In 2019, how much time per day did people spend reading the news online? And who did this study?
The Reuters Institue: 16 minutes a day
What’s different between broadcast media and newspapers?
Broadcast media is more popular but is also bound by law to remain politically neutral.
Give an argument and a counter-argument for the influence of broadcast media (specifically leadership debates) in on the outcome of elections
Leadership Debates give parties a chance to convince voters and show what theyrepresent; the 2010 debates led to ‘Cleggmania’ (“I agree with Nick.”) where the LibDems shot up to 35% in the polls
- Leadership debates’ long-term effects are unsubstantiated; despite ‘winning’ the first debate, Rishi Sunak did not win the 2024 general election. Additionally, ‘Cleggmania’ did not transfer to the election, where they lost 5 seats.
Give an argument and a counter-argument against the influence of broadcast media on the outcome of elections, and an example for each.
Rule 5.4 of the Ofcom broadcasting service ensures neutrality of reporting so there is little room to influence viewers; the BBC has come under scrutiny for left-wing bias but that is unsubstantiated
- What the media reports and how can have a strong influence; ‘bigot-gate’ and ‘the bacon sandwich’ and how they were reported were big influences on the 2010 and 2015 elections
Give evidence that people no longer trust broadcast media.
In 2003, 81% and 82% of people trusted BBC and ITV journalists respectively; in 2020, those numbers fell to 47% and 41 %.
What makes social media advantageous for political parties?
The web is much cheaper so political parties can gain traction without the need for a national platform or large funds, this is especially helpful for smaller parties such as the Greens; the Greens have 6% more followers on Facebook than Labour, compared to their respective aggregate votes in 2024.
Give an argument and a counter-argument against the influence of social media on the outcome of elections, and an example for each.
The little control that social media gives parties means that their campaigning power is random; in 2019, ConLab and LibDem placed around 25,000 Facebook ads but only 48 of them were seen by more than 1 million people
People are not very likely to be influenced by social media so campaigning is useless; in 2015, only 7% of people were influenced by the leading social media, Facebook
- The Web is nearly completely unregulated, parties can use all kinds of unscrupulous tactics to get voters; in 2019, the Conservative Twitter account was renamed to ‘FactCheckUK’ to sound more neutral and enhance their campaigning.
- Parties can target ads and this can help to swing voters; Conservatives spent £1.2 million on Facebook ads in 2015 in swing seats, this was crucial in their victory as Labour only placed £16,000
Why is the higher use of social media by the young helpful for political parties?
- Social Media is mainly used by the young who, on average, are less likely to vote. However social media can be used to increase turnout such as was done by Corbyn in 2017.
- They are more likely to be radicals so further left and right groups do have a foothold, such as with Momentum (the left-wing group) in 2017.
How did the Sun headline ‘Crisis, what crisis?’ influence the 1979 election? Give a counterargument.
The headline suggested that Jim Callaghan was out of touch and swung popular opinion against the popular prime minister.
- Callaghan was still Labour’s strongest asset after the headline and continued to be ahead throughout the campaign.
How did the Sun switching allegiances in 1997 affect the election? How didn’t it?
Given the Sun’s popularity among the Working class (Labour’s traditional voting base who may feel alienated by Blair’s centre-left methods), the support helped Labour win the 179-seat majority.
- Much of the press was likely reacting to a pre-existing change of public opinion given the popularity of Blair and New Labour and the unpopularity of Major and the sleaze.
What are the issues with how opinion polls affect voting?
Overall it increases tactical voting, which damages democracy as people do not demonstrate their actual ideologies, especially if it’s clear.
- Some people on the predicted side may not feel the need to vote
- People on the other side may have greater turnout out of fear, such as due to fears of a Labour-SNP coalition in 2015. Or they may choose not to vote at all out of apathy
Give two examples of opinion polls being wrong.
- 2016: opinion polls estimate a 2-10% Remain victory in Brexit, Leave wins by 4%.
- 2015: many opinion polls put LabCon at a tie or even Labour winning, Conservatives lead by almost 100 seats
Give two possible effects of opinion polls proposing a Milliband government in 2015.
- Many LibDem voters may have switched to Conservative over concerns about Ed Milliband and the SNP having power; 27 LibDem seats changed hands.
- People may have been more willing to vote for SNP and UKIP as they believed they would become part of the government; 50 seats changed hands to SNP.
How do opinion polls affect decision-making positively? Give a criticism.
Opinion polls give politicians accurate measures of public attitudes to act on, this stops the government from misrepresenting the public - Theresa May dropped her ‘Dementia Tax’ after her lead in the voting intentions poll halved in a few days; 2019 Conservative manifesto chimed with polls, focussing on Brexit
- The accuracy can be questionable at best, leading to innaccurate decision making by the government; polls put May 17% ahead of Labour, but final result was only 2.4%;
Give an argument for the idea that opinion polls have a positive impact on the media, a counterpoint, and evidence for both.
Opinion polls give people who are usually unrepresented by the media a chance to be heard, even better if they are against the government; between 2016 and 2019, opinion polls showed the government consistently out of step with the people.
- The media becomes obsessed with opinion polls near an election, decreasing space for policy- and issue-based discussion; Cardiff Uni: “In the last week of the 2015 election, 22.7% of all media coverage was on the potential winners and losers.”
Give an argument for the idea that opinion polls have a positive impact on the voter, a counterpoint, and evidence for both.
Voters can be encouraged to turnout if they feel underrepresented in the polls; the ‘10, ‘15, and ‘17 elections were reported as close and all had higher turnouts than the last
- Tactical voting is increased by opinion polls as people change their allegiances due to fears of certain governments; 10 Conservative seats changed hands to SNP in 2015.
How are opinion polls positive for politicians? Give a criticism.
They provide politicians with information about public opinion, allowing the construct policies based on them - Theresa May dropped her ‘Dementia Tax’ after her lead in the voting intentions poll halved in a few days; 2019 Conservative manifesto chimed with polls, focussing on Brexit
- They are often wrong, so may misinform politicians - polls put May 17% ahead of Labour in 2017, leading her to call an election, but final result was only 2.4%;
- Even if true, they lead to preemptive action - Cameron including Brexit referendum in mainfesto due to popularity of UKIP in polls
How are opinion polls positive for the media? Give a criticism.
Opinion polls give people who are usually unrepresented by the media a chance to be heard, even better if they are against the government - between 2016 and 2019, opinion polls showed the government consistently out of step with the people, leading to the reshape under Johnson to focus on Brexit
- The media becomes obsessed with opinion polls near an election, decreasing space for policy- and issue-based discussion - Cardiff Uni: “In the last week of the 2015 election, 22.7% of all media coverage was on the potential winners and losers.”
- The media capitalises off the flashiest results so are incentivised to report what it is ‘breaking news’ rather than the nuanced truth
How are opinion polls positive for voters? Give a criticism.
They may encourage turnout if people fear that their party will lose, especially in the event of a ‘close race’ - close voting intention polls in 2010, 2015 and 2017 may have been the reason for increased turnout; 21% of Conservative votes in 2024 were “to stop Labour”
- They increase tactical voting as people change their allegiances to stop certain predicted results -
- They may also decrease turnout among parties predicted to win, possibly causing a change in result - Major did so poorly in the polls in 1992, they were already planning a replacement, alas he won with a 21 seat majority
How is print media positive for democracy? Give a counterargument.
Print media is free do operates without government interference, being able to sufficiently scrutinise government - The Daily Telegraph and the MP’s Expenses Scandal
Print media helps to inform the public, especially important near elections and given the increased usage of referendums - Reuters, 9 major newspapers, 42 articles about Brexit daily in run up to referendum
- Ownership is concentrated into hands of wealthy, giving them unaccountable infleunce over what people believe - Rupert Murdock ($21.7bn) owns the Sun, 30mn people read weekly
- Loss of local newspapers (240 between 2005-17) has led to loss of scrutiny on local government - Hackney Gazette’s ‘Hidden Homelessness’ series raised awareness of housing crisis in Hackney
How is broadcast media positive for democracy? Give a counterargument.
Rule 5.4 of Ofcom necessitates impartiatlity, allowing accurate and trusted broadcasting - 47% of people trust BBC journalists, the highest of any type of news, its charter to ‘promote understanding of the UK political system’
Live TV debates allow parties to debate their policies and present them to the public - first televised debate in 2010 attracted 10mn views so educated many
- Broadcast media often highlights failures and scandals over successes to gain maximum viewership, undermining trust in politicians - Bigotgate, Partygate, and Ed Milliband and the Bacon sandwich
How is social media positive for democracy? Give a counterargument.
Massively increases plurality; as a low cost alternative, many more radical views are able to gain a platform - Greens have 6% more followers on Facebook than Labour, compared to their respective aggregate votes in 2024.
It encourages participation as people are able to use social media to learn, such as by following news accounts or politicians - BBC news has gained 7.2mn followers on TikTok, with a video of Starmertalking about misogyny gaining 600k views
- Its almost entirely unregulated (Facebook removes factchecker), allowing people and politicians to manipulate it to twist the truth - in 2019, the Conservative Twitter account was renamed to ‘FactCheckUK’ to sound more neutral and enhance their campaigning.
- The algorithym creates an echochamber that can lead to extermism - “UN argues it einforce extremist narratives, recruitment strategies and control of the territory by criminal groups”
