UK POLITICS - Voting Behaviour and the Media

Question 1

What are the 7 long-term determinants of voting behaviour?

Answer 1

• Class
• Partisanship
• Gender
• Age
• Ethnicity
• Region
• Education

Question 2

In the 1964, what percent of W/C people voted Lab and what percent of M/C people voted Con?

Answer 2

• 64% of W/C people voted Lab
• 62% of M/C people voted Con

Question 3

In 1966, what percentage of the electorate were ‘class voters’?

Answer 3

66%

Question 4

What is the decline in relationship between class and voting called?

Answer 4

Class dealignment

Question 5

What was the fall in percent of ‘class voters’ between 1979 and 2010?

Answer 5

13% (51%-38%)

Question 6

What are the four factors that lead to class dealignment?

Answer 6

• Changing class system: decrease in a traditional working class of manual labour (53% in 1961 to 29% in 2013)
• Cross-class locations: more difficult to judge class, decrease in trade unions and increase in home ownership
• Embourgeoisement: many working class people think of themselves as middle class
• Sectoral divisions: voters are more influenced by the sector they are in due to austerity

Question 7

Give evidence that class is no longer a strong factor in voting behaviour.

Answer 7

At the 2024 general election, 2% less DE people voted labour than AB, bucking the usual class trends; additionally, only 4% less DE voters voted conservative than Labour.

Question 8

Give evidence that class is still a strong factor in voting behaviour and why?

Answer 8

People who own their housing outright were more than 2x more likely to vote conservative than renters (37% and 14%); additionally, they were almost half as likely to vote Labour (25% and 42%).

Question 9

What is partisanship?

Answer 9

When people vote for a party due to long term feelings of connection and attachment, developed social learning at home, school and the workplace.

Question 10

Give evidence of the decline of party loyalty.

Answer 10

In 1964, 44% of voters ‘identified very strongly’ with a party; in 2005, this number fell to 10%

Question 11

What is partisan dealignment?

Answer 11

The process by which individuals no longer long-term identify themselves with a party

Question 12

What are the four factors that lead to partisan dealignment?

Answer 12

• Increased education: such as with the minimum school leaving age being increased to 16 by Heath’s Conservative government, people have been encouraged to question traditions
• Impact of the media and technology: voters have a wider variety of accessible political information and are therefore less reliant on party supporting newspapers
• Ideological changes: politics of the main parties have shifted, alienation some traditional voters (One Nationers and Social Democrats)
• Valence issues: other issues have become more prevalent (Brexit in 2019)

Question 13

What was the traditional gender voting (giving an example) and its explanation?

Answer 13

Women traditionally voted conservative more than men, more women voted conservative than men in every election between 1979 and 2001 (except 1987, where it was equal)
- This may be because women did not go to work and people who have a lower education level are more likely to vote Conservative. It may also be the Conservative Party’s traditional emphasis on stability and safety.

Question 14

Give evidence that gender is no longer a strong factor in voting behaviour and why.

Answer 14

The gender gap has decreased wildly, 1% more women voted Labour and 3% more Conservative at the 2024 general election.
- This may be due to increasing levels of education and the recent instability of Conservative governments.

Question 15

Give evidence that gender is still a strong factor in voting behaviour

Answer 15

1. There is still a strong gender gap between the young; at the 2019 election, women 18-24 were 19% more likely to vote Labour than men the same age (46% and 65%).
2. Gender still affects how people vote for smaller parties; 6% more men didn’t vote LabCon than women in 2024 (45% and 39%)

Question 16

How do different ages vote and why?

Answer 16

Older voters are more likely to be conservative and younger voters are more likely to vote Labour. This may be because older voters value security (that the Conservatives traditionally offer) and may also lose their youthful idealism that characterises leftism.

Question 17

Give evidence that age is still a strong factor in voting behaviour.

Answer 17

In the 2019 election, for every 10 years older a person is, they are 9% more likely to vote Con and 8% less likely to vote Lab.

Question 18

Give evidence that age is no longer a strong factor in voting behaviour.

Answer 18

At the 2024 GE, 25-49 year olds were 3% more likely to vote Labour that 18-24 year olds (44% vs. 41%), though they were still more likely to vote Conservative as well (14.5% vs. 8%).
However this may be due to increased turnout of Conservatives over fear of a dominant Labour government and as such is an exception.

Question 19

How do different ethnic groups traditionally vote, giving an example?

Answer 19

BAME voters are more likely to vote Labour than Conservative; in 2001, Labour had a 67% lead among black voters and 58% among Asian voters. However this may be due to the link between ethnicity and social class.

Question 20

Give two examples of ethnicity affecting voting behaviour.

Answer 20

• Labour 2019: Corbyn lost a large amount of the British Indian vote due to his support of an independent Kashmir
• Labour 2017: Corbyn lost a large percentage of the Jewish vote due to accusations of antisemitism towards the Labour Party
• Labour 2005: Blair lost a large amount of the Muslim vote due to supporting the Iraq War

Question 21

How do different regions traditionally vote and why?

Answer 21

There used to be a stark North (Labour) and South (Conservative) divide, this may have been a reflection of class as the South has traditionally been wealthier and this links to voting Conservative.

Question 22

How have the voting behaviours of different regions changed?

Answer 22

Brexit and other valence issues have led to a steep decline in regionalism, such as with the destruction of the Red Wall in 2019. However, in 2024, sided from London, the South was much more likely to vote LibDem or Conservative whereas the North was more likely to vote Labour or SNP.

Question 23

What are the 8 short-term determinants of voting behaviour?

Answer 23

• Valence
• Governing Competence
• Rational choice
• Issue Voting
• Leaders
• Party Image
• Campaigns
• Manifestos and Policies

Question 24

Define electoral volatility.

Answer 24

The degree of change in voting behaviour between elections.

Question 25

Give an example of electoral volatility.

Answer 25

Between the 2019 and 2024 elections, the Labour swing went from -124 majority to 157 extra seats, a change of 281 seats.

Question 26

Define valence.

Answer 26

Issues that have a common agreement, where the issue rather lies in who is most likely to deliver, e.g. energy crisis.

Question 27

Give an example of the effect of valence on voting.

Answer 27

In 2019, it was judged that Conservatives would be able to take on Brexit, taking a harder stance than Labour’s second referendum so gained an 80-seat majority.

Question 28

How is region still a strong determinant in voting behaviour?

Answer 28

Nationalist parties depend on regional support, the SNP dominated Scotland in 2019 with 48/59 seats

Question 29

Why is valence so important?

Answer 29

Valence is what wins over swing voters who aren’t ideologically minded but rather care more for competence and stability.

Question 30

Quite about governing competence:

Answer 30

“Governments lose elections, oppositions do not win them.”

Question 31

Define governing competence.

Answer 31

The party of the day loses an election based on their performance in government rather than the success of the opposition.

Question 32

Give an example of governing competence winning an election, as well as a counter example.

Answer 32

• The 1997 general election was largely lost by the Sleaze in Major’s Conservatives
• Johnson received a large majority in 2019 despite the instability of previous Conservative governments

Question 33

Outline rational choice voting as well as a criticism

Answer 33

This suggests that people vote based on what is in their overall best personal interests, taking valence into account.
- This assumes voting as logical, when often it is ideological; in 2019, 41% of DE voters voted Conservative despite their policy of austerity

Question 34

Outline issue voting, giving an example.

Answer 34

This suggests that people will vote for a party based on a single issue that it’s important to them, this can be rational or irrational such as with Brexit.

Question 35

Why is Issue Voting so important?

Answer 35

Depending on the prevalence of the issue, it is a great way to win over swing voters. Additionally, those that do not adopt popular issues are doomed to fail.

Question 36

Give two examples of issue voting.

Answer 36

• 2005: Blair lost 48 seats due to his support of the Iraq War despite the biggest demonstration in British history
• 2019: Corbyn’s milquetoast Brexit plan may have lead to his loss

Question 37

What has led to the increased importance of leaders in voting?

Answer 37

Presidentialism

Question 38

What three attributes do leaders need to be successful? Give an example for each.

Answer 38

• Accessibility: Blair, known for his calm and relaxed demeanor
• Trust: Blair, known for being widely trusted pre-Iraq
• Strength: Thatcher, known for being the “Iron Maiden”

Question 39

Give a counter-point to the importance of leaders.

Answer 39

In 1979, ‘Sunny Jim’ Callaghan was 20 points ahead of Thatcher in the polls due to his likeability but lost the election. However, this may have been because of a lack of emphasis on strength.

Question 40

What increased the importance of leaders? Give a counter-argument.

Answer 40

The introduction of TV debates in 2010 wildly increased the importance of leaders as they were seen as the representatives of their party. However, despite more than 50% of viewers believing that Clegg won the first debate, the LibDems lost 5 seats in the election.

Question 41

Give three examples of how Ed Milliband demonstrated the importance of leaders.

Answer 41

• The Bacon Sandwich
• The Ed Stone
• The ‘Tough’ Incident

Question 42

How is party image important?

Answer 42

How a party is perceived will affect valence and governing competence voting, as well as the perception of the leader.

Question 43

What was the issue with the Conservative Party’s image in the 90’s?

Answer 43

Due to the ‘Sleaze’ and divisions over Europe, Major’s Conservatives had developed a reputation as the “nasty party” (Theresa May, Chairman) and were associated for an apathy towards the struggling.

Question 44

What was good about the Labour Party’s image in the 90’s?

Answer 44

New Labour was united under Blair and made to appear sleek, modern, and accessible using pagers and shaving off ‘old fashioned’ mustaches.

Question 45

How did the Conservatives demonstrate the importance of party image in 2010?

Answer 45

Cameron was focused on ‘detoxifying’ the party image and becoming more palatable to women, the young, and ethnic minorities, leading to the 5% swing from Labour to Conservatives.

Question 46

How did 2024 demonstrate the importance of party image?

Answer 46

The election was largely won due to the loss of trust in the conservatives amid the failings of Brexit and the financial crisis.

Question 47

Why aren’t campaigns considered to have a strong effect on elections?

Answer 47

It is believed that election campaigns tend to reinforce pre-existing views rather than change them.

Question 48

How did Major’s campaign gain him a majority in 1992?

Answer 48

The previously ‘grey’ Major eschewed high-tech strategies and addressed a crowd whilst standing on a shoebox’; appearing accessible, it earned him an 11-seat majority.

Question 49

How did the 2017 election challenge ideas about the unimportance of campaigns?

Answer 49

Corbyn began the race 20 points behind May; however, through his ability to enthuse young voters, May managed to lose a majority and govern with the help of the DUP.

Question 50

How did Labour’s manifesto hurt them in 1987 and how did they redeem themselves in ‘97?

Answer 50

Labour’s ‘87 manifesto promised increased nationalization, public spending, and taxation: a misread of the room that lost them their third election.
However, Blair’s populist promises (such as getting 250,000 under-25s off benefits) won them the election in ‘97.

Question 51

How did Brexit demonstrate the importance of manifestos in 2019?

Answer 51

• 65% of leavers voted Conservative
• 55% of remainers voted Labour

Question 52

Give an example of manifestos not being important.

Answer 52

Corbyn’s manifesto contained wildly popular policies (such as increasing pensions at the sam rate as inflation), however still lost due to not being seen as achievable.

Question 53

Why was there such a low turnout in 2005?

Answer 53

People felt helpless: they were voting between an unpopular Labour government and an even more unpopular opposition, resulting in a turnout of 61.4%.

Question 54

Why was there such a low turnout in 2010?

Answer 54

People still felt helpless: they were voting between a government that hosted a global economic recession and an opposition that wanted austerity, leading to a turnout of 66%

Question 55

What was roughly the turnouts of elections in the 80’s and 90’s”

Answer 55

70-80%

Question 56

What four things must you refer to when answering a question about media influence?

Answer 56

• Newspapers
• Television and radio
• The Internet
• Opinion polls

Question 57

What is the readership of the Guardian, Times, Financial Times, and Telegraph?

Answer 57

• Higher socioeconomic classes

Question 58

What is the readership of the Mail and Express?

Answer 58

• All groups

Question 59

What is the readership of the Sun, Daily Mirror, and Daily Star?

Answer 59

• Working class

Question 60

What % of over 65s use newspapers as a source of news? And for 16-24s?

Answer 60

65: 58%
16-24: 20%

Question 61

What % of ABC1 use newspapers as a source of news? And for C2DE?

Answer 61

ABC1: 41%
C2DE: 34%

Question 62

Why is the class and age gap of newspaper readers important?

Answer 62

ABC1 and over-65s, those that read newspapers, have higher turnouts to elections so there may be some relations.

Question 63

Define the ‘Manipulative’ theory and give an example.

Answer 63

Newspapers are owned by the wealthiest who use their newspapers to influence the public for their own ends; the Sun (which is owned by Rupert Murdoch a multi-billionaire) only supported Labour when Blair and the Third Way supported capitalism

Question 64

Define the ‘Reinforcement Theory’ and give an example.

Answer 64

Newspapers are echo chambers for readers’ pre-existing values, they are incapable of changing them and readers will ignore anything they disagree with; despite the Mail running a 17-page anti-Corbyn feature in 2017, the same % of their readers voted Labour.

Question 65

Give an argument and a counter-argument for the influence of newspapers on the outcome of elections, and an example for each.

Answer 65

Increase in partisan and class dealignment = undecided voters who can be influenced by newspapers; in 2015, 44% of voters were undecided, a record number.
- People often go against what the papers tell them to do: 30% of Mail readers voted for Labour in 1997 despite being encouraged not to.

Question 66

Give an argument and a counter-argument against the influence of newspapers on the outcome of elections, and an example for each.

Answer 66

People are reading newspapers less so they lose their influence; in 2015, television was almost 3x as influential as papers in informing people about the election (62% Vs. 25%)
- Papers are still popular with the groups that vote the most; 41% of ABC1 and 58% of 65+

Question 67

In 2019, how much time per day did people spend reading the news online? And who did this study?

Answer 67

The Reuters Institue: 16 minutes a day

Question 68

What’s different between broadcast media and newspapers?

Answer 68

Broadcast media is more popular but is also bound by law to remain politically neutral.

Question 69

Give an argument and a counter-argument for the influence of broadcast media on the outcome of elections, and an example for each.

Answer 69

Leadership Debates give parties a chance to convince voters; the 2010 debates led to ‘Cleggmania’ where the LibDems shot up to 35% in the polls
- Leadership debates’ long-term effects are unsubstantiated; despite ‘winning’ the first debate, Rishi Sunak did not win the 2024 general election. Additionally, ‘Cleggmania’ did not transfer to the election, where they lost 5 seats.

Question 70

Give an argument and a counter-argument against the influence of broadcast media on the outcome of elections, and an example for each.

Answer 70

Rule 5.4 of the Ofcom broadcasting service ensures neutrality of reporting so there is little room to influence viewers; the BBC has come under scrutiny for left-wing bias but that is unsubstantiated
- What the media reports and how can have a strong influence; ‘bigot-gate’ and ‘the bacon sandwich’ and how they were reported were big influences on the 2010 and 2015 elections

Question 71

Give evidence that people no longer trust broadcast media.

Answer 71

In 2003, 81% and 82% of people trusted BBC and ITV journalists respectively; in 2020, those numbers fell to 47% and 41 %.

Question 72

What makes social media advantageous for political parties?

Answer 72

The web is much cheaper so political parties can gain traction without the need for a national platform or large funds, this is especially helpful for smaller parties such as the Greens; the Greens have 6% more followers on Facebook than Labour, compared to their respective aggregate votes in 2024.

Question 73

What makes social media disadvantageous for political parties?

Answer 73

• Due to the algorithm, it is easier for parties to embolden pre-existing voters, but harder to get swing voters as they are unlikely to like that kind of content

Question 74

Give an argument and a counter-argument for the influence of social media on the outcome of elections, and an example for each.

Answer 74

The Web is nearly completely unregulated, parties can use all kinds of unscrupulous tactics to get voters; in 2019, the Conservative Twitter account was renamed to ‘FactCheckUK’ to sound more neutral and enhance their campaigning.
- People are not very likely to be influenced by social media so campaigning is useless; in 2015, only 7% of people were influenced by the leading social media, Facebook

Question 75

Give an argument and a counter-argument against the influence of social media on the outcome of elections, and an example for each.

Answer 75

The little control that social media gives parties means that their campaigning power is random; in 2019, ConLab and LibDem placed around 25,000 Facebook ads but only 48 of them were seen by more than 1 million people
- Parties can target ads and this can help to swing voters; Conservatives spent £1.2 million on Facebook ads in 2015 in swing seats, this was crucial in their victory as Labour only placed £16,000

Question 76

Why is the higher use of social media by the young helpful for political parties?

Answer 76

• Social Media is mainly used by the young who, on average, are less likely to vote. However social media can be used to increase turnout such as was done by Corbyn in 2017.
• They are more likely to be radicals so further left and right groups do have a foothold, such as with Momentum (the left-wing group) in 2017.

Question 77

How did the Sun headline ‘Crisis, what crisis?’ influence the 1979 election? How didn’t it?

Answer 77

The headline suggested that Jim Callaghan was out of touch and swung popular opinion against the popular prime minister.
- Callaghan was still Labour’s strongest asset after the headline and continued to be ahead throughout the campaign.

Question 78

How did Neil Kinnock’s saying “We’re alright.” affect the 1992 election? How didn’t it?

Answer 78

It made Kinnock appear triumphalistic and alienated some voters
- Given it happened a week before the election, and his 42-seat rise, it is unlikely to have had that large of an effect.

Question 79

How did the Sun switching allegiances in 1997 affect the election? How didn’t it?

Answer 79

Given the Sun’s popularity among the Working class (Labour’s traditional voting base who may feel alienated by Blair’s centre-left methods), the support helped Labour win the 179-seat majority.
- Much of the press was likely reacting to a pre-existing change of public opinion given the popularity of Blair and New Labour and the unpopularity of Major and the sleaze.

Question 80

What are the issues with how opinion polls affect voting?

Answer 80

Overall it increases tactical voting, which damages democracy as people do not demonstrate their actual ideologies, especially if it’s clear.
- Some people on that side may not feel the need to vote
- People on the other side may have greater turnout out of fear, such as due to fears of a Labour-SNP coalition in 2015. Or they may choose not to vote at all out of apathy

Question 81

Give two examples of opinion polls being wrong.

Answer 81

• 2016: opinion polls estimate a 2-10% Remain victory in Brexit, Leave wins by 4%.
• 2015: many opinion polls put LabCon at a tie or even Labour winning, Conservatives lead by almost 98 seats

Question 82

Give two possible effects of opinion polls proposing a Milliband government in 2015.

Answer 82

• Many LibDem voters may have switched to Conservative over concerns about Ed Milliband and the SNP having power; 27 LibDem seats changed hands.
• People may have been more willing to vote for SNP and UKIP as they believed they would become part of the government; 50 seats changed hands to SNP.

Question 83

Give an argument for the idea that opinion polls have a positive impact on parties, a counterpoint, and evidence for both.

Answer 83

Opinion polls give politicians accurate measures of public attitudes to act on, this stops the government from misrepresenting the public and allows groups to challenge them with facts; Theresa May dropped her ‘Dementia Tax’ after her lead in the voting intentions poll halved in a few days
- The accuracy can be questionable at best; Brexit polls, 2015 polls

Question 84

Give an argument for the idea that opinion polls have a positive impact on the media, a counterpoint, and evidence for both.

Answer 84

Opinion polls give people who are usually unrepresented by the media a chance to be heard, even better if they are against the government; between 2016 and 2019, opinion polls showed the government consistently out of step with the people.
- The media becomes obsessed with opinion polls near an election, decreasing space for policy- and issue-based discussion; Cardiff Uni: “In the last week of the 2015 election, 22.7% of all media coverage was on the potential winners and losers.”

Question 85

Give an argument for the idea that opinion polls have a positive impact on the voter, a counterpoint, and evidence for both.

Answer 85

Voters can be encouraged to turnout if they feel underrepresented in the polls; the ‘10, ‘15, and ‘17 elections were reported as close and all had higher turnouts than the last
- Tactical voting is increased by opinion polls as people change their allegiances due to fears of certain governments; 10 Conservative seats changed hands to SNP in 2015.