UK MACRO ECONOMY STATS Flashcards
UK Annual Growth Rate
expectedto grow 0.7% in 2024
UK Quarterly Growth Rate (Q4 2022)
0.17%
Annual Growth Forecast 2023
-0.2%
Negative Output Gap (Q3 2023 OBR)
-1.6% ~ actual gdp as a % of potential gdp
Had positive output gap for last couple years
GDP per Capita
£33,000
Total GDP and breakdown per sector
Services 79%
Manufacturing 14%
Construction 6%
Agriculture 1%
Unemployment Rate
3.9% ~ strong labour market
March2024
What is the Economic Inactivity Rate
(Those who are of working age 16-64 not willing to work, not physically able, not seeking work)
21.4% - driven by 50s and 60s leaving during COVID
Youth Unemployment
10.8%
Peaked at 14.5% during COVID
Long Term Unemployment
1%
Annual Wage Growth
6.6%
Consumer Confidence
Very Low … But
Fragile signs of recovery
CPI Inflation Rate
3%
Core Inflation ~ CPI w/o food and energy (price volatile items)
6.2%
Producer Price Inflation
(Wholesale Price Inflation)
8.7% - indicator of rising input costs and future CPI inflation rises
For 2 years it is higher than CPI but lower means CPI could fall
Inflation Expectations - what households think inflation will be over the next 12 months
5.4%
Food Price Inflation
19.1%
Current Account Deficit
-5.1% of GDP
forecast to reach -6.1% of GDP- record figure
Productivity and Investment
Both stagnated since Brexit
Productivity 20% below the avg of the rest of the G7 and 25% below pre-2008 trend
Exchange Rate
Weak
£1 = $1.24
£1 = 1.12 Euros
UK is net importer of raw materials, capital machinery, semi-finished goods
thus worsens current account position
Drives higher supply-cost inflation
Minimum Wage
£10.42 per hour
Performance of Major Trading Partners - US and Eurozone
Slow growth
UK Budget Deficit
2020-2021: 14.5% of GDP
2021-2022: 5.6% of GDP
2022-2023: 6.1% of GDP
UK National Debt
100% of GDP
UK Bond Yields
3.46%
UK interest rate payments in 2022
£116 billion in just servicing debt, more than government spends on any public service apart frrom the nHS
Income Tax Bands
0% up to £12,570
20% £12,570-£50,270
40% £50,270-£150,000
45% >£150,000
frozen till 2028 - fiscal drag
How much is freezing the tax bands expected to earn the government by 2026
26 billion pounds more a year
Coporation Tax
25% (up from 19%)
Coporation tax
25% (up from 19%)
VAT
20%
Gini Coefficient
0.343
BoE Base Rate
5.25%.
Average Lending Rate
%5.25
Bank Willingness to Lend
Agreeing to about 80-85% of applications by SME firms
Consumer Confidence
-30 in April 2023 but up from -45 in Jan 2023 and highest level since Feb 2022
Business Confidence
Q1 2023 2.5; back in positive but weak
Savings Ratio
9.3% - high for UK standards
QE Total
£895 billion
British consumers are 65% less likely to spend in 2023 than christmas last year
British consumers are 65% less likely to spend in 2023 than christmas last year
national debt compared to GDP
101.2% compared to GDP
