UK MACRO ECONOMY STATS

Question 1

UK Annual Growth Rate

Answer 1

expectedto grow 0.7% in 2024

Question 2

UK Quarterly Growth Rate (Q4 2022)

Answer 2

0.17%

Question 3

Annual Growth Forecast 2023

Answer 3

-0.2%

Question 4

Negative Output Gap (Q3 2023 OBR)

Answer 4

-1.6% ~ actual gdp as a % of potential gdp

Had positive output gap for last couple years

Question 5

GDP per Capita

Answer 5

£33,000

Question 6

Total GDP and breakdown per sector

Answer 6

Services 79%
Manufacturing 14%
Construction 6%
Agriculture 1%

Question 7

Unemployment Rate

Answer 7

3.9% ~ strong labour market

March2024

Question 8

What is the Economic Inactivity Rate
(Those who are of working age 16-64 not willing to work, not physically able, not seeking work)

Answer 8

21.4% - driven by 50s and 60s leaving during COVID

Question 9

Youth Unemployment

Answer 9

10.8%

Peaked at 14.5% during COVID

Question 10

Long Term Unemployment

Answer 10

1%

Question 11

Annual Wage Growth

Answer 11

6.6%

Question 12

Consumer Confidence

Answer 12

Very Low … But

Fragile signs of recovery

Question 13

CPI Inflation Rate

Answer 13

10.1% ~ 7th Consecutive Month of double digit inflation

Supply side of high gas, wage growth, weak pound and food inflation

Forecasts say half by later in year

Question 14

Core Inflation ~ CPI w/o food and energy (price volatile items)

Answer 14

6.2%

Question 15

Producer Price Inflation
(Wholesale Price Inflation)

Answer 15

8.7% - indicator of rising input costs and future CPI inflation rises

For 2 years it is higher than CPI but lower means CPI could fall

Question 16

Inflation Expectations - what households think inflation will be over the next 12 months

Answer 16

5.4%

Question 17

Food Price Inflation

Answer 17

19.1%

Question 18

Current Account Deficit

Answer 18

-5.1% of GDP
forecast to reach -6.1% of GDP- record figure

Question 19

Productivity and Investment

Answer 19

Both stagnated since Brexit

Productivity 20% below the avg of the rest of the G7 and 25% below pre-2008 trend

Question 20

Exchange Rate

Answer 20

Weak
£1 = $1.24
£1 = 1.12 Euros

UK is net importer of raw materials, capital machinery, semi-finished goods
thus worsens current account position

Drives higher supply-cost inflation

Question 21

Minimum Wage

Answer 21

£10.42 per hour

Question 22

Performance of Major Trading Partners - US and Eurozone

Answer 22

Slow growth

Question 23

UK Budget Deficit

Answer 23

2020-2021: 14.5% of GDP
2021-2022: 5.6% of GDP
2022-2023: 6.1% of GDP

Question 24

UK National Debt

Answer 24

100% of GDP

Question 25

UK Bond Yields

Answer 25

3.46%

Question 26

UK interest rate payments in 2022

Answer 26

£116 billion in just servicing debt, more than government spends on any public service apart frrom the nHS

Question 27

Income Tax Bands

Answer 27

0% up to £12,570
20% £12,570-£50,270
40% £50,270-£150,000
45% >£150,000

frozen till 2028 - fiscal drag

Question 28

How much is freezing the tax bands expected to earn the government by 2026

Answer 28

26 billion pounds more a year

Question 29

Coporation Tax

Answer 29

25% (up from 19%)

Question 30

Coporation tax

Answer 30

25% (up from 19%)

Question 31

VAT

Answer 31

20%

Question 32

Gini Coefficient

Answer 32

0.343

Question 33

BoE Base Rate

Answer 33

5.25%.

Question 34

Average Lending Rate

Answer 34

%5.25

Question 35

Bank Willingness to Lend

Answer 35

Agreeing to about 80-85% of applications by SME firms

Question 36

Consumer Confidence

Answer 36

-30 in April 2023 but up from -45 in Jan 2023 and highest level since Feb 2022

Question 37

Business Confidence

Answer 37

Q1 2023 2.5; back in positive but weak

Question 38

Savings Ratio

Answer 38

9.3% - high for UK standards

Question 39

QE Total

Answer 39

£895 billion

Question 40

British consumers are 65% less likely to spend in 2023 than christmas last year

Answer 40

British consumers are 65% less likely to spend in 2023 than christmas last year

Question 41

national debt compared to GDP

Answer 41

101.2% compared to GDP