Types of Power Flashcards
How effectively can the US weild power - WHAT ARE THE LIMITATIONS
1. The US is governed by an elaborate system of checks and balances
- Good for maintaining stability
- Bad for wielding power
- For example, the President is the commander and chief of the armed forces, but only congress can declare war on other nations or authorise extended military campaigns like our current war on terror
2. Both the president and the congress are in power for limited periods of time and freely elected by the people
- If the president of the congress were to vote for a start an unpopular war, it could be difficult for them to stay in office
3. Russia and China’s influence on the UN security council
Examples of Hard Power - Combined military, economic and diplomatic power as the core element of enforcing hard power
GLOBALLY: MILITARY
- US 2020 defence budget of US$738b.
- 3.42% of GDP (2019 = 19th)
- 471,990 active Army personnel
- 325,000 active Navy
- 321,000 active Air Force (2018)
- Approx. 1.2m active
GLOBALLY: ECONOMIC
- US 2019 GDP of $21.4 trillion, largest globally
- US $2.5 trillion in exports (2019)
- US $3.1 trillion in imports (2019)
- Sanctions: “The United States uses economic and financial sanctions more than any other country.”
- 2019 sanctions in place against Iran, Cuba, Sudan, North Korea, Syria.”
- US tariffs – EU: 10-25% imports, China: 15-25%, Turkey: 4-70%, India, 10-50%, Russia 25-40%
GLOBALLY: DIPLOMATIC
- as a method and means of which hard power is exercised
- the decision making diplomatic behind the enforcement and practice of hard power
- U.S. “hard power” stands ready, however silently, in the diplomatic background
REGIONAL:
- S Korea: 23,400 personnel
- Japan: 39,300
- Alliances: SK, Japan, Aust, NZ, Taiwan, Singapore, Philippines & Thailand.
- “The U.S. Pacific Fleet consists of approximately 200 ships/submarines, nearly 1,200 aircraft, and more than 130,000 Sailors and civilians.”
- Bases & deployments in: Aust, Singapore, Guam, Diego Garcia (Indian Ocean), Japan, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand.
- Economic – sanctions against North Korea
- Tariffs against China US $550b worth of imports!!!!!!!!!!!
How is Hard Power Used to Achieve National Interests?
- COERCE OR THREAT TO COERCE
Nat Security - Defense of the homeland
- military capacity for operations that protect its national security in responding to threats or to destabilize a region
Economic Prosperity
- military capacity and security to defend US economic infrastructure in the homeland and overseas
- protection of key allies and resources in destabilized regions
- diplomacy is the means by which hard power and the operations it entails is put into force
- opponents use cyber capabilities to attack the U.S. economic infrastructure and steal sensitive technology and weapons-relevant intellectual property in order to undermine America’s ability to project and sustain military power
- economic sanctions and tariffs used to defend economic prosperity and benefit the economic interests of the state
Can undermine & support regional relations and international standing
- sanctions and tariffs used to consolidate American influence abroad
Examples of Economic Power
Besides Hard Power:
TRADE:
- US FTA’s: 20 in total
- 14 FTAs with Asia pacific states
- Founding member state of the APEC
- total U.S. trade in 2014 was $1.6 trillion in exports and $2.3 trillion in imports
- The 2018 top U.S. trading partners were China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and the United Kingdom (UK), and, as a bloc, the European Union
- withdrawing from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in January 2017
- negotiating select modifications to KORUS - The 2012 U.S.-South Korea FTA (KORUS) has the most extensive commitments among existing U.S. FTAs
- negotiating significant revisions to NAFTA
ECONOMY - sanctions / aid:
- Estimated GDP of $21.427 trillion in 2019 = world’s leading economy
- EMPLOYMENT - Employment Rate in the United States is expected to be 61.00 percent by the end of this quarter
- US prime-age male employment rate, at 85%, lagged behind other advanced economies on average (87%)
- Economically sufficient to use various instruments of foreign policy: tariffs, supplying loans, foreign aid, sanctions which magnify the extent to which the US is able to influence other states
FOREIGN INVESTMENT:
- largest direct investor abroad and the largest recipient of foreign direct
- 74% of the accumulated U.S. foreign direct investment is concentrated in high-income developed countries
- The U.S. direct investment position was recorded at around $6.4 trillion in 2016
- 59% of US Direct investment abroad was to Europe
- established IMF and World Bank and is the largest financial contributor to both
- $14.5 billion U.S. contribution to the IMF’s capital base (about $200 billion)
- original member and strong supporter of WTO since 1995
MULTINATIONALS:
- trade between U.S. parent companies and their foreign affiliates, identified as multinational companies (MNCs), accounted for $315 billion in both exports and imports
How is Economic Power used to achieve National Interests?
Economic power is vital to direct foreign policy in order to achieve US national interests
- Fuel military expenditure
- Expand regional and global influence
- Maintain bilateral and multilateral trade deals with vital states
- Enforce economic sanctions and afford to place tariffs in order to pursue interests
With substantial economic means, a state can expect to have influence on the global stage
Economic prosperity is tied to maintenance of a global military presence – without a strong military, the pursuit of national interests becomes more difficult
Connection to National Security: Strong economy fuels capacity to protect itself
Regional relations via trade connections in its own region (14 FTA’s)
International standing – despite the doubts of the Trump Administration it remains a committed member and financial supporter of IMF, WB, and WTO
Examples of Military Power
- 2018 military expenditure = 3.3% of GDP
- 2019 military expenditure = 3.42% of GDP
- US 2020 defence budget of US$738b.
- Trump has ordered 5 percent cut from 2020 fiscal year budget — to about $700 billion from roughly $733 billion – deeper cuts in military spending
- Defence Base Budget: The Defense Department will also spend $107 billion in new technology research
GLOBAL ASSETS:
- Over 800 military bases abroad
- S Korea: 23,400 personnel
- Us has maintained military personnel in South Korea in support of its commitment under the US-South Korea Mutual Defence Treaty to help South Korea defend itself against external aggression – response to missile threats from North Korea – THAAD missile system
- Japan: 39,300
- Alliances: SK, Japan, Aust, NZ, Taiwan, Singapore, Philippines & Thailand.
- “The U.S. Pacific Fleet consists of approximately 200 ships/submarines, nearly 1,200 aircraft, and more than 130,000 Sailors and civilians.”
- Bases & deployments in: Aust, Singapore, Guam, Diego Garcia (Indian Ocean), Japan, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS:
- Non-proliferation Treaty – US, Russia, UK, France, China
- North Korea: withdrew in 2003, believed to be well advanced in developing nuclear capabilities and its uses are highly ambiguous
EUROPE: U.S. has treaty obligations through NATO to defend the European members of that alliance
MIDDLE EAST: will remain a key focus for U.S. military - security challenges, even though the National Defense Strategy has called upon the DOD to reorient toward major-power competition with China and Russia
- The Islamic State appears to have been defeated in a conventional sense
ASIA:
- long-standing adversaries such as North Korea
- continue to assess it as “favorable” to U.S. interests in terms of alliances, overall political stability, militarily relevant infrastructure, and the presence of U.S. military forces
- means that the United States should be able to project military power anywhere in the world as necessary to defend its interests without substantial opposition or high levels of risk
How is Military Power used to achieve National Interests?
The United States maintains a military force primarily to protect the homeland from attack and to protect its interests abroad
- Respond to threats to national security
- Exert influence globally, specifically in the Asia pacific through peace ties, over military strength and providing securit
- Expansion of US military us imperative to strategic goals
Respond to emerging threats in order to maintain interests and influence in conjunction with emerging threats and power of adversaries (see next cue card)
Military Threats to US Interests
NSS: represents a shift from fighting the insurgent wars of the last 17 years (war on terrorism) to large state-on-state conflicts (mainly china and Russia)
- Confronting China and Russia, as well as North Korea and Iran — a complex set of new and emerging threats
- China and Russia were seeking regional hegemony and pursuing aggressive military buildups aimed at neutralizing American strengths
- threats posed by Iran and North Korea have worsened in recent years as both have developed more advanced weapons
- Adversaries have developed ways to counter longstanding American advantages in projecting power over distances, air and missile defense, cyberoperations and electronic warfare
CHINA: ongoing military modernization and buildup. The People’s Liberation Army continues to extend its reach and military activity beyond its immediate region and engages in larger and more comprehensive exercises, including live-fire exercises in the East China Sea near Taiwan
SOUTH CHINA SEA: the commission called for investing in more long-range military transport planes, submarines and other undersea warfare equipment.
RUSSIA: the report recommended continuing a NATO buildup on the alliance’s eastern flank and the Baltics that has been underway for several years
IRAN: remains the state actor that is most hostile to American interests in the Middle East. Closer to becoming a nuclear power, continues to perpetuate and exploit instability to expand its influence in the region, both in its direct involvement in regional engagements
NORTH KOREA: Pyongyang continues to develop and refine its missile technology
Examples of Political Power
- Alignment of political authority with economic and military power allows the US to exert enormous influence in the region
UNITED NATIONS:
- permanent member of the UN and holds a veto power
- the biggest single contributor to the UN budget – providing 22% and yield immense political influence in the organization as a result
INTERNAL POLITICAL MACHINERY:
- decisions are being made by the internal branches of the US political administration – directs foreign policy outcomes that will have bilateral and multilateral impacts
- LEGISLATION – passed by congress
- EXECUTIVE ORDERS – president
- WHITE PAPERS – written to guide policy, not definitive
- Government system is a federal presidential constitutional republic
- Consists of the Senate (upper house) and House of Representatives (lower house)
- The US is regarded as one of the most politically stable countries in the world, with an ability to exert influence on every region on earth, often regarded as the ‘global policeman’
EXECUTIVE ORDERS OF THE PRESIDENT:
- Departure from TPP, January 2017
- Departure from the Paris Accord, June 2017
- Announcement of withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Agreement, May 2018
SANCTIONS:
Use of sanctions: Iran, North Korea, Syria, Cuba - These come from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) within the Treasury Department – authorized by legislation passed by Congress and enacted by President
TARIFFS: The power to employ comes from congress but has increasingly been used by the president from existing legislation
Defence, State Department, Intelligence and Foreign Aid Budgets:
- Set by the Executive (President) but must be ratified / approved by the Congress
- In 2020 Defence: $21.4 trillion
- State Department: $40 billion
- US AID: $19.2 billion (from the State Department’s $40b)
IMMIGRATION POLICY (TRUMP):
- decisions must be compatible with existing legislation (passed by congress) or otherwise face legal challenges
- Trump executive order banning immigration for 60 days to US from 23 April 2020
NATO:
- dominant player in NATO – largest and most powerful military in the world
- contributes more troops, resources and finances than any of the other 28 members – as a result has primary influence in setting the NATO agenda, thus controlling its immense influence globally
- for example, political influence of the US in the alliance = 2011 downfall of Libyan president Ghaddafi, a threat to Global and US Security Interests
Political authority of US to assert coercive measures: assassination of Iran military commander - 3 January 2020, a United States drone strike near Baghdad International Airport targeted and killed Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani
Increased Aid, in particular; SECURITY ASSITANCE to ensure its political influence is maintained:
- The USAID budget this year is $20 billion
- 1 percent of the United States federal budget goes to foreign aid — and about 40 percent of that is considered security assistance, rather than economic or humanitarian aid
How is Political Power used to achieve National Interests?
Use of political power to control negotiations and achieve its influence worldwide
- By using political power in global institutions, the US is able to shape negotiations and policies in favor of US Security and economic interests
- By having a stable and strong political system, the US is able to safeguard US industries, law and order and economic prosperity
President power is unique, especially executive orders
However, Senate power to review and limit finance, use of military
Supreme Court to check powers of President
Examples of Diplomatic Power
Participating in arms control and disagreement negotiations, bilateral / multilateral negotiations:
- US has established diplomatic military-to-military cooperation with Vietnam
- Increased bilateral and multilateral military exercises and training with Australia. For example, in April 2017; deployed 1,250 marines in the Northern Territory
Participating in and coordinating humanitarian interventions:
- US military led response to the Typhoon Haiyan, which hit the Philippines November 2013 = its largest ever humanitarian actions
- Provided more than $200 million in financial aid
The United Nations’ budget shrank by more than $US285 million in 2018— a 5 percent cut that the US government negotiated:
- The US is the largest contributor, paying about 25 percent of the regular budget
Participating in multilateral organizations – Many UN agencies, programs, and missions receive crucial funding from the United States. President Trump’s proposed budget cuts could jeopardize their work
- Use of diplomatic power and influence in the UN to lower US contributions
- As a founding member of the United Nations and the host for its headquarters, the United States has been a chief guide and major funder of the organization for more than seventy years = immense diplomatic power in controlling negotiations
influence and innovations of America’s tech giants is being credited for the country’s strong performance in the soft power of digital diplomacy – the use of digital tools to help achieve diplomatic objectives
How is Diplomatic Power used to achieve National Interests?
US has sought to exercise its diplomatic power to conduct negotiations and agreements in order to achieve its national interests
- influence in the Asia-Pacific region
- influence in the United nations
Examples of Cultural Power
US is a major source of entertainment: American TV, Hollywood films and pop music
- US film and television exports earned $16.2 billion in 2012. By comparison, British film and television exports, riding a wave of popularity, were $1.2 billion
- McDonalds restaurants – 36,000 outlets in 128 states
- Baseball has become a national sport in Japan
- American cultural influence reaches into China deeper than ever. Despite censorship, restrictions on cultural imports and heavy Internet barriers, American television, films, music and technology are widely and avidly consumed
Champion of Liberal Democracy – characterized by fair, free and competitive elections
- Principles of Liberal Democracy spreading through Asia pacific
Through immigration, the American experience is shared globally
- More than 40 million people living in America were born outside the US
Education – The U.S. boasts the highest number of top universities in the world
How is Cultural Power used to achieve National Interests?
Promotes American values and ideals and spreads their influence worldwide and in its region
- Principles of liberal democracy spreading through Asia-Pacific – US seen as the champion of liber democracy = international influence
- Regional relations – as international political and economic balance shifts from east to west, political leaders are placing increasing importance of cultural diplomacy and international communication
- Sport connects states on a bilateral and multilateral level
Examples of Soft Power
CULTURAL ELEMENTS:
- Education has also long been a key part of America’s soft power strengths.
- Sport is a major form of cultural power – especially the NBA which is the second most popular sport worldwide after soccer
- Hollywood – known worldwide and promotes American Ideals such as liberalism
POLITICAL ELEMENTS:
- Increased Aid, in particular; SECURITY ASSITANCE to ensure its political influence is maintained
ECONOMIC ELEMENTS:
- FTA’s
- International economic engagement: established IMF and World Bank and is the largest financial contributor to both, $14.5 billion U.S. contribution to the IMF’s capital base (about $200 billion), original member and strong supporter of WTO since 1995
DIPLOMATIC ELEMENTS:
- Participating in arms control and disagreement negotiations, bilateral / multilateral negotiations
- Participating in and coordinating humanitarian interventions
- influence and innovations of America’s tech giants
HOWEVER: According to Soft Power 30, the strength of America’s soft power is being eroded under the banner of ‘America First
- They pointed specifically to damage done by three significant changes in U.S. foreign policy:
- Abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
- Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement
- The unilateral exit from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – better known as the Iran nuclear deal
