Factors that shape US interests Flashcards
What are the three factors shaping US interests?
1. Cultural identity: implies the ideologies/values that the state holds = liberty, individual rights, democracy
- constitutional and institutional framework of American government, between Congress and President, is a significant factor shaping the outcome of specific U.S. foreign policy decisions
2. International relationships: America’s enduring role as both an Atlantic and a Pacific power, together with the rise of China and a range of high-profile security, economic and political challenges in Indo-Pacific, has a major impact on the direction of US foreign policy
3. State security: domestic threats to the US
What are the key elements of National Security?
- Protection of borders and territory
- Defend against WMD
- Cybersecurity
- Terrorism
- Defeat jihadists
- Strong economy = security
How is NS affected by Cultural Identity?
- Immigration state: Protecting borders = border wall along Mexico / migrant ban announced by Trump under coronavirus regulations = agenda of President Trump in asserting the values of US ideology
- People elect a president based on the present agenda the candidate takes: In 2016 = ‘America First’ was built around protecting the interests of the American citizens
- Protecting the American economy
- China’s relationship – how does it relate to security on a cultural level?
- Hispanic Americans share a very similar worldview with the larger U.S. public: They consider terrorism, nuclear proliferation, Iran’s nuclear plans and cyber-attacks to be critical threats to vital U.S. interests, and they support robust U.S. diplomatic engagement, including through alliances, treaties and trade agreements
How is NS affected by International relationships?
- linked to State Security
1. Threats to US national security will expand and diversify especially driven by China and Russia as they respectively compete more intensely with the United States and its traditional allies and partners - involves a race for technological and military superiority
- Russia and China seek to shape the international system and regional security dynamics and exert influence over the politics and economies of states in all regions of the world
- As China and Russia seek to expand their global influence, they are eroding once well-established security norms and increasing the risk of regional conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific
2. Iran: weapons of mass destruction
- Iran’s ballistic missile programs, which include the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region, continue to pose a threat to countries across the Middle East
How is NS affected by State Security?
- linked to International relations
1. TERRORISM: IRAN: WMD ambitions, threats to US allies in the middle east, sponsoring terrorism
- Uses increasingly sophisticated cyber techniques to conduct espionage; it is also attempting to deploy cyber-attack capabilities that would enable attacks against critical infrastructure in the United States and allied countries
- U.S. killing of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani on January 3 - threat of cyberattack by Iran critical and forthcoming
- Global jihadists in dozens of groups and countries threaten local and regional US interests
- Some of these groups will remain intent on striking the US homeland – Prominent jihadist ideologues and media platforms continue to call for and justify efforts to attack the US homeland
- ISIS - ISIS still commands thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria, and it maintains eight branches, more than a dozen networks, and thousands of dispersed supporters around the world, despite significant leadership and territorial losses
2. CYBER THREAT: adversaries and strategic competitors will increasingly use cyber capabilities—including cyber espionage, attack, and influence—to seek political, economic, and military advantage over the United States and its allies and partners
- China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea - influence capabilities into their efforts to influence US policies and advance their own national security interests
- continually use cyber espionage and attack to achieve political and military objectives
3. WMD:
- RUSSIA: Military rival (WMD) – NATO, destabilising force (provokes members of the NATO alliance) - Ukraine
- NORTH KOREA: WMD, capacity to strike US, authoritarian state, proximity with key US allies (South Korea & Japan) = threat to NS interests
What are the key elements of Economic prosperity?
- Protectionism (rejuvenate the domestic economy)
- Strength in trading relationship with foreign states – ‘fair FTA’s – balanced outcome – renegotiated NAFTA
- Leading in research
- American jobs
How is EP affected by cultural identity?
- VALUES: Protect its workers / American dream – work hard, live comfortably – protect US borders, preventing an influx of illegal immigrants
- Promote American trade and commerce ‘fairly’ in agreements with other states – in particular, china
- Criticisms of china
How is EP affected by International relationships?
- trump; “the future doesn’t belong to globalists”
1. CHINA: US trade grievancies
- U.S. concerns about the business environment in China and China’s trade practices. Top U.S. concerns include the Chinese state’s increasingly direct and powerful role in the economy and China’s policies requiring U.S. firms to disclose increasingly sensitive information as a precondition to operate in China
- The US doesn’t like that China is growing so fast and set to overtake America as the biggest economy in the world - China has become an economic superpower, but has not transformed into a western capitalist economy – US claims that China achieved its growth by not playing fair
- China’s economic rise has been dramatic. In 1978 China’s GDP at market prices was just 6% of America’s. In 2018 it had grown to 66%. When considering local spending power China has already overtaken America
2. CHINA: US policy responses employed against China
- Tariffs on upwards of US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods
- The Trump administration has been using tariffs or taxes on imported goods to try to force the Chinese to change their ways. In July 2018 America imposed tariffs of 25% on $34bn worth of Chinese products. That almost doubled the average tariff rate on Chinese imports from 3.8% to 6.7%
3. CANADA AND MEXICO: USMCA new agreement established (used to be NAFTA)
- The USMCA was signed on November 30, 2018
- intended to provide better opportunities for American citizens and jobs
4. THE EU: US wants a fairer deal in terms of export capacity and markets
- UK own separate FTA with its departure from the EU
How is EP affected by State Security?
Economic prosperity drives national security or the capacity of a state to be able to protect itself / finance its military expenditure
1. CHINA – HUWAWEI – allows china to how access to communications network = threat to state security
- Trump’s position on HUWAWEI access to communications and telecommunications network - wrote an executive order that states HUWAWEI’s intentions are a national security issue
2. CYBER THREATS: North Korea continues to use cyber capabilities to steal from financial institutions to generate revenue
What are the key elements of Regional relationships?
- Trade with china
- Strong regional relationship with Canada
- Security alliances – Canada, Singapore, south Korea, Australian, New Zealand, Japan, fractured Philippines
- Latin America – challenges – immigration, crime, degree of aid – impact on the USA
How is RR affected by cultural identity?
1. DEMOCRACY - aid – good governance – improving standard of living
- US sense of obligation – support weaker states through developmental aid, opportunities to enhance governance/democracy
- Young South East Asian Leaders Initiative (YSEALI) Est 2013
2. As America’s demography shifts, U.S. opinion on foreign policy may shift as well
- Across Europe, there is a widely shared assumption that the diminishing share of the U.S. population originating from Europe will in due course weaken U.S. interest in and commitment to the transatlantic relationship\
- Foreign policy is drifting toward the Pacific, or to other regions of the world, because American society is becoming less “European” and more of everything else
3. FACTIONS WITHIN THE DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN PARTIES: engaged in pitched debates about the nature of globalization and appropriate U.S. responses
- Within the Republican party, supporters of Donald Trump agree with the President’s assertion that the United States has carried too much of the burden, and sacrificed too much of its sovereignty, supporting an international system that they believe often works contrary to U.S. interests.
- They face more traditional Republican voices who argue that rules-based open trading arrangements and military alliances are more conducive to U.S. interests than unilateral efforts to go it alone
How is RR affected by International relationships?
1. DEVELOPMENT OF ASIA-PACIFIC REGION - both threats and benefits to US interests: Some of the strongest bilateral relationships that the US has are with states in the AP region: Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Aust, NZ, Singapore, Canada, Mexico, … Brazil
- These relationships are built off: Trade, Security, Less so - Aid
- RUSSIA: likely to sustain an assertive, opportunistic foreign policy to advance Russia’s interests beyond its borders and contest US influence
2. TRADE:
- US-Canada-Mexico trade discussion – AMEIRCA FIRST
- US-EU trade - US-EU trade, valued at $1.2 trillion in 2017, would almost certainly suffer disruptions from a no-deal Brexit, which would further dampen UK
- US-China trade frictions – china = threat to US influence, hence, focus on realist approach to trade war
How is RR affected by State Security?
Key alliances equate to US’s security agenda needs within its own region – think China, less so Russia
1. SOUTH CHINA SEA:
- China: various levels – south China Sea (US allies, international law – FONOPs (9 of these in 2019, 1 in 2020)
- China will continue increasing its maritime presence in the South China Sea and building military and dual-use infrastructure in the Spratly Islands to improve its ability to control access, project power, and undermine US influence in the area
- China seeks to achieve effective control over its claimed waters with a whole-of-government strategy, and bolster Beijing’s narrative in the region that the United States is in decline and China’s pre-eminence is inevitable
2. ORGANISED CRIME: Global transnational criminal organizations and networks will threaten US interests and allies by trafficking drugs, exerting malign influence in weak states, threatening critical infrastructure, orchestrating human trafficking, and undermining legitimate economic activity
- Approximately 70,000 Americans died from drug overdoses in 2017, a record high and a 10-percent increase from 2016
3. CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA: Organised crime and immigration
- Immigration Policy – influence of the region and its problems
- Gangs based in Central America, such as MS-13, continue to direct some criminal activities beyond the region, including in the United States
What are the key elements of International Standing?
- Reassessing its links with IGO’s – on ‘America First’ basis
- Reasserting itself as a principle actor of the west
- Trade – on US terms
- WMD – attempts at negotiations with NK
- Ongoing threat of terrorism and desire to act unilaterally where it sees fit to do so
How is IS affected by Cultural Identity?
- American exceptionalism – US superiority and willingness to act alone to defend its interests
- Realist approach
- Defender of democracy and its values
- Defender of market capitalism and its values
= trump administration has become critical of IGO’s that may be seen to undermine or not support these values – UN, WTO
- critical of WTO’s labeling of China as developing
- The challenge that remains for the US is the fact that whilst China’s economic transformation has been built off capitalist reforms it has not adopted the democratic ideals that the US sees as being intrinsically linked = china is increasingly more influential in the Asia-pacific region and threatens the regional influence of the US
- the external affairs of a state are to a large extent the legacy of its history and cultural heritage
- The approach of a nation to the foreign problems is determined by its traditional values and beliefs which have emerged on periods of years
