Trends and Future Projections Flashcards
What trend is observed in the occurrence of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions?
Increasing trend in their occurrence
This trend is attributed to better monitoring and reporting.
What does the composite graph from 1970 to 2019 show regarding natural disasters?
A slight increase in earthquakes and a similar but less defined trend for volcanic eruptions
The increase is likely due to improved reporting rather than actual frequency.
What clear trend is observed in landslide occurrences?
A more clear trend linked to extreme weather events, population pressure, and land-use change.
How have actual deaths from natural hazards changed since the 1900s?
Decreased rapidly since the 1900s.
What were the major killer events from the 1920s to 1960s?
Droughts and floods.
Which natural hazard has emerged as the prominent killer event since the 1960s?
Earthquakes.
What population change has occurred in seismic areas between 1975 and 2015?
Increased by 93%, from 1.4 billion to 2.7 billion.
Where do the majority of earthquake deaths occur?
In just 15 countries mainly in Asia and South America.
How many people lived near one of the 220 most dangerous volcanoes in 2015?
More than 400 million.
What percentage of the world’s population lived in urban centers in 2021?
54%.
What is projected for urban population by 2050?
68% of the world’s population.
What is a megacity?
A city with a population over 10 million.
What is the potential death toll if a high-magnitude earthquake hits a megacity?
Over 1 million people.
What is the risk associated with urban growth by 2050?
More than 3 billion people will live in inadequate slum housing.
What factors increase the risk of a megadisaster in megacities?
Speed of urban growth, inadequate housing, and high population density.
Which city is forecasted to be hit by a high-magnitude earthquake?
Istanbul.
What fault is Istanbul situated on?
The North Anatolian Fault.
What is the probability of an earthquake greater than magnitude 7 occurring near Istanbul in the next 30 years?
Between 35 and 70%.
What factors influence whether cities like Istanbul will experience a future megadisaster?
Probability of a high-magnitude earthquake, governance, and dynamic pressures.
What is crucial for mitigating the potential for a megadisaster?
Transparency of government and effective urban planning.
What barriers exist to effective urban planning and disaster mitigation?
Corruption, lack of economic development, and rapid urbanisation.
