Trading MTR Tops Flashcards by Khoi Nguyen Minh

When a Trader is looking a HH MTR Top what do they need?

They need some evidence that the Bears are Strong. Tops NEED strong Bear Bars for a successful reversal

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Once the market is in AIL chances are the first Reversal down will be Minor

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What is another way to look at ALL DBs?

They are also a High 2 Bull Flag

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What usually is the the High 2 Bull Flag in a Bull Trend?

It is often the Final Bull Flag, Bears Expect Bull Trend Resumption to Fail

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Bears Expect Bull Trend Resumption to Fail

Bears Expect Bull Trend Resumption to Fail

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What do Nested Wedges increase?

Nested Wedges increase the Probability that the market may have a Reversal sideways to down

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Higher Probability if Bears Create a Strong Sell Signal Bar

Higher Probability if Bears Create a Strong Sell Signal Bar

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Late in the day, day traders will look for reasons to take profits before the end of the day(session)

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What is a minimum profit target?

Minimum Target is 2x Actual Risk

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When anticipating a Reversal down is it better to take the Reversal Trade down if the channel going up is Tight or Broad?

When anticipating the Reversal down it is better to take the trade down after 3 pushes up in a BROAD channel

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If Bulls are Too Strong - DO NOT LOOK FOR TOP YET

If Bulls are Too Strong - DO NOT LOOK FOR TOP YET

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amarket is CONSTANTLY Trying to reverse, 80% of Reversals will FAIL.

In a Bear Trend when does the premise of the bear trend become no longer valid?

If the market goes above the Last LH, the bear trend is no longer in a Strong Bear Trend

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If a Strong Bull Trend Resumes after a PB do I need to start the cycle over as a new Bull Trend?

Yes start the process over again. Need a new TL Break and then a test up

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If Strong Bull Resumes - Start over, need new TL Break

If Strong Bull Resumes - Start over, need new TL Break

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If there is 3 Pushes up (Wedge) is there a higher probability of a MTR?

Yes there is a higher probability of a reversal with the 3rd push up. This is also a Nested Wedge

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Whenever you are in any Trade you must have a plan to take profits

Whenever you are in any Trade you must have a plan to take profits

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Is taking Profits at 2x Actual Risk good ?

Yes it is always good but Rarely the Best Profit taking exit price. It is good to take at least partial profits and full profits when completely unsure of an exit

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Whenever I have a Wedge Top how many legs down should I be looking down for?

TBTL, at least 2 Legs down. After 1st Down there is often a strong rally to LH. With the failed bulls trend resumption at the wedge top there is often a strong rally the LH MTR (Do not be trapped out, be ready to sell)

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If Tight Stop the 1st Signal Often Fails.

If I use a Tight stop and get stopped out but the premise remains I have to look to sell again

If Tight Stop the 1st Signal Often Fails.

If I use a Tight stop and get stopped out but the premise remains I have to look to sell again

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Is it common for the market to have strong moves in the wrong direction according to the context?

Yes it is very common. Markets often have strong moves in the wrong direction

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If the premise remains and I get stopped out on a Tight Stop Should I sell again on the next sell signal?

Yes, Bears will allow bulls to test up and weak bears with exit above LH, strong bears will sell above LH to make bulls give up

DO NOT HOLD POSITION Forever - Must take profits

*The best exit is the reversal up from the bottom of the chart which is the support(yesterdays low)

*Get out of everything above a good bull bar

DO NOT HOLD POSITION Forever - Must take profits

*The best exit is the reversal up from the bottom of the chart which is the support(yesterdays low)

*Get out of everything above a good bull bar

a Breakeven Stop, is it ok for me to allow it to be hit twice?

No, do not let it get hit twice.

It is very common for the 1st reversal up to go to the entry price and it traps weak bears out of shorts and weak bulls into longs.

If it goes up a 2nd time you have to get out and re-evaluate price action and start the process over again.

When a Reversal Setup is Small is the Reversal more likely to be major or minor?

More likely to only be a minor reversal and a resumption of a trend

When there is not enough selling pressure like we have here is it likely there will be a MTR or a pause after a buy climax before trend resumption up?

This is more likely a pause before trend resumption up due to the lack of selling pressure. It is a Minor Reversal and it usually before a bull(bear) flag before the resumption of a trend

If not Enough Selling Pressure - Bull Trend will not Reverse

Gap Up = Brief, Big Bull Trend

When Selling, it is better if they're many reasons to Sell If Strong Bear do not take Profits at Minimum Targets

As Profits Grow some Bears Scale in and add to their Shorts

When Trading a MTR how much percentage change do I have for a Swing Profit?

Trading a MTR has 40% of a Swing Trade profit

Take Profits(Full or Partial at Support Levels - Like MMs, Previous Days Low/High, Previous Days Close Its better to exit on a reversal up early which will allow me to get into another trade again just like at the DT Bear flag to the right on this chart.

A lot of Traders do not worry about picking the right top or bottom, what do they use to negate this type of strategy?

As long as there is Strong Selling(Buying) Pressure they and they do not worry about picking the right top/bottom they use WIDE STOPS and scale in higher

Minimum Targets are good enough but Rarely Best

IF a Trader enters the market about the absolute worst price but is still in alignment with his premise, if he manages the trade right he can still make money

50% of the time if I get a strong BO up or down on the open it is the wrong way and it will reverse TRUE or FALSE

TRUE On the Open here there was a BIG UP Parabolic Wedge with previous days price, Bears will take the 40% chance for the swing down trade

Some traders do not like to enter MTR trades when the probability is only 40% they then therefore wait until there is a strong BO which increases the probability they then look to enter.

Think of the Minimum 2x Profit taking zone as a minimum wage job. They're are good and get you paid, but if you had the choice there are times where you can make much more money than a minimum wage job.

Is it always good to scale out and take partial profits?

Yes it is always good to scale out and take partial profits when big

Top but in TR - Most BO attempts Fail

Is a TR more likely to continue or BO up or down below the TR?

The TR is more likely to continue as the markets have inertia. Though it is in BO it is more likely to continue

Have a Default Plan to Take Profits

As Long as the marker is making LHs then still in a bear trend. After each new strong bear BO, especially to a new low, trail stop to above LH(top of bear leg; majorLH)

What are Trends always trying to do?

Trends are always trying to reverse, rely on stop for proper trade management

What does a successful reversal usually become?

A successful reversal usually becomes a BIG TR

MAG = Moving Average Gap Bar(s)

Top at End of Session - Needs Immediate Bear Trend

If I take this short then see a strong reversal signal bar that is in a great area of confluence, what should I do?

Exit the Trade immediately and either go long or wait

Sometimes you take a responsible short but then see a strong reversal bar also with some other areas of confluence indicating the short I took is not a great trade. I have to get out immediately. (see chart below)

What do Bears who want a higher probability wait for?

They wait for a Strong Bear BO as they prefer higher probability trades