Entering Late in Trends Flashcards by Khoi Nguyen Minh

Missed Trading a Hugh Trend Out of Fear …

Did you watch this and not buy?

If so, probably out of fear that the stop was far away, which can cause a huge loss

Beginners fear loss and as a result miss great trades.

Understanding Market Cycle will allow the fear to reduce

Missed Trading a Hugh Trend Out of Fear …

Did you watch this and not buy?

If so, probably out of fear that the stop was far away, which can cause a huge loss

Beginners fear loss and as a result miss great trades.

Understanding Market Cycle will allow the fear to reduce

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What is a good way to not be trapped out of a bull trend?

A good way is to be a “Buy The Close” bull.

Buy the close of a Strong Bull Bar for scalps and swings

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Bulls Trapped out of the Bull Trend and Bears Trapped In

Bulls Trapped out of the Bull Trend and Bears Trapped In

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Many are afraid to Enter Late but the math is still often Good

Buy The Close BOs can be difficult to manage since sometimes they reverse quickly

Many are afraid to Enter Late but the math is still often Good

Buy The Close BOs can be difficult to manage since sometimes they reverse quickly

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After about 10-20 bars in a bull trend, are the bulls acting as if bears are trapped?

Yes they are, absolutely

They know bears are panicking and start buying aggressively for a swing up and if it loses momentum the Bulls will start taking profits

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If the bulls are disappointed after buying the close of a bull bar what is likely to occur?

The bulls may become disappointed at the follow-through after they bought the close.

It is more likely a PB or a TR may soon emerge in the markets

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Bears Trapped out of Bear Trend and often the Bulls are often Trapped In

Bears Trapped out of Bear Trend and often the Bulls are often Trapped In

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What is one of the best techniques to avoid missing a Bear Trend?

The BEST way to avoid missing a Bear Trend is to Sell Closes.

Sell the close of a Strong Bear Bar for Scalps and Swings

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All Trends Finally END

To find the Final Trend Bar just look at any trend and find any PB or Reversal

All Trends Finally END

To find the Final Trend Bar just look at any trend and find any PB or Reversal

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After the Final Trend what happens?

After it reverses it is easy too see and find the Final Bull/Bear Bar and highest/lowest close

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Who does noise exist to in the markets?

Noise only exists for Traders who do not think.

Every tick matters and nothing is noise. Everything is important, even if too small for you to trade

The markets are always giving new information, but we must be open to what it is saying

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When should a Trader Sell the Close Bears?

Sell the Close in a Strong Bear BO, begin selling Bear closes

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Disappointed Bears here on this chart, can they avoid a Loss?

They can try to Buy back their shorts at Breakeven or a tick or two above and the Bulls see this and know the market will soon reverse up as the Bears and Bulls are buying at the same time

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When the Bears are disappointed with the follow-through after a Sell the Close entry, what warning is this for Traders?

This is a warning for Traders of a Possible Reversal

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Sell The Close Bears in a Strong Bear BO, SELL CLOSES

Sell The Close Bears in a Strong Bear BO, SELL CLOSES

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Buy The Close Bulls in a Strong Bull BO, BUY CLOSES

Buy The Close Bulls in a Strong Bull BO, BUY CLOSES

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If the Bears are Disappointed after a Sell the Close Bear entry, what is the market likely to do after the disappointment?

The market may be pulling back into a TR or maybe reversing

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What do the disappointed Bears do in this scenario?

They will try to get out Breakeven and the Bulls know they are trying to do this and will look to buy to counter scalp or buy for a swing reversal up

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As Price Action Changes so does the Style of Trading

As Price Action Changes so does the Style of Trading

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In the Market Cycle what phase is the BO Phase followed by?

The BO Phase is followed by a Channel or TR

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Once I have identified a final trend bar what must I watch for?

Watch for the Trend Reversal or Resumption

For example if I sold below the lowest Bear Trend Bar on this chart after I see the Bull follow-through I may say to myself that this may be the final Bear Trend Bar and the market is about to Reverse

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When the Bulls see a Final Bull Trend Bar what are they doing?

They are quickly selling out of longs, not buying aggressively so not creating BIG BULL BO

When the Bears see a Final Bear Trend Bar what are they doing?

They are quickly selling out of shorts, not selling aggressively so not creating BIG BEAR BO

With the Bulls buying here they hoped for continued bull rally, they knew big bar at resistance (TR TOP) was a possible exhaustion.

What would the bulls and bears do in this situation?

There may be some trapped bulls and most bulls will attempt to get out break even because of the disappointing follow-through.

The Bears see this and bet short from the now TOP of a TR (Sell High)

If there is Bad Follow-Through the Bulls will change their Goal

Bear BO - Remaining Bulls Finally Gave Up

With the Bears selling here they hoped for continued bear selloff, they knew big bar at resistance (TR Bottom) was a possible exhaustion. What would the bears and bulls do in this situation?

There may be some trapped bears and most bears will attempt to get out break even because of the disappointing follow-through. The Bulls see this and bet long from the now Bottom of a TR (Buy Low)

Strong Bull BO - Remaining Bears Exited with a Loss

The missed test of this bears entry by two ticks tells the trader what? And what do this Bulls do with this information?

This tells the trader that the Bears were just trying to get out of their shorts at Break even and this tells the bull trader that the Bears are trapped short and failed to get out Break even and it is no time to start buying long

Sell the close Bears will sell closes during the BO

a Strong Bear BO and follow-through like this, looking left to the context, do the odds favor an exhaustion gap (with a reversal) or measuring gap( and a measuring move down with the test of the next support level)

There is a higher probability of a Measuring Move down for lower prices

When do Bear become cautious?

They become cautious after a Big Tail or Bull Bar

As the Trend Weakens the Bears will Change their Strategy The Bears become eager to buy out of their shorts to avoid a Bigger Loss

What do the disappointed Bears try to get?

The disappointed Bears try to get out Breakeven

When the Bulls see and know the Bears are Trapped what will and should they do?

When Bulls see Trapped Bears they will place limit orders a tick or two above where the bears are trying to take their profit, which could lead to a reversal

Sell the Close Bears are not confident of Lower Prices

When the Bears start to give up what do the Bulls do?

When the bears start to sense there is an increasing probability of a reversal they start to give up and the Bulls start to buy

Strong BO - Good Context so 2 Legs up Likely When the Bears Buy here betting on this being a TR but a Bull BO with great follow-through ensues, higher prices are likely for a possible Measured Move up

Sell the Close Bears gave up and Took the Loss

When Buying in a Bear Trend/Channel, look for many Reasons to do so

Where do ALL Sell Climaxes end?

All Sell Climaxes end at Support All Bear Trend Reversals take place at support

a Big BO Late into a trend is usually what? The end of the trend or the start of a new leg down?

It is usually the End of the Trend

: At a minimum the Bulls who buy at the bottom of a Sell Climax would expect a minimum target to reach where?

The bulls believe there is a 60% chance that the market will go above or to the top of the final big bar before it falls lower.

Tight TR - The Bears are Now as Strong as the Bulls

If there is a Strong Bear BO but its a Climax would you buy the close or sell the close?

Buy the Close (look at the chart below)

Can a Tight TR (TTR) be a MTR?

Yes it can Every bar that gets added to the TTR makes the reversal being closer to 50/50 for a MTR Here we have a LH DT in the TTR The odds of 2 legs down are 40%