Topic 8 - Valuation of capital assets Flashcards
Researchers have shown that the best measure of the risk of a security in a large portfolio is the
beta (ß) of the security
Beta measures the responsiveness of a security to movements in the market portfolio (i.e., systematic risk)
If we accept a linear relationship
Then the model can be represented with a line: The Securities Market Line (SML)
All securities should comply with the model, even the Market Portfolio (M)
Expected return on a security
This valuation model is called the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
And is represented by the equation of a line: The SML
E(ri) = rf + Bi x (E(rm)-rf)
Limitations of the CAPM
- Only one factor to explain returns
- Beta is computed with historical data while it is used to predict future returns: Is beta stable across time?
- The model assumes that the market is in equilibrium and all players diversify efficiently
- The model assumes that the market portfolio is efficient but we really use a proxy
The Arbitrage Pricing Theory
a well-known method of estimating the price of an asset
The theory assumes an asset’s return is dependent on various macroeconomic, market and security-specific factors
How Arbitrage Pricing Theory works (APT)
it’s an alternative to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
Two things can explain the expected return on a financial asset:
1) macroeconomic/security-specific influences
2) asset sensitivity to those influences (betas)
This relationship takes form of the linear regression formula above.
There is an infinite number of security-specific influences. It’s up to the analyst to decide which are relevant to the asset.
Differences between CAPM and the APT
- APT applies to well diversified portfolios and not necessarily to individual stocks
- With APT it is possible for some individual stocks to be mispriced - not lie on the SML
- APT is more general in that it gets to an expected return and beta relationship without the assumption of the market portfolio
Concept and proposed strategy of the RSI-14
It compares the magnitude of a stock’s future or recent gains to the magnitude of recent losses. It takes the number and turns it into a number ranging between 0 and 100.
RSI = 100 - 100/(1+RS)