Topic 4 - Population Growth

Question 1

Why is Population Density such an important statistic?

Answer 1

Indicates availablity/sharing of food,water,shelter,safety etc.

Bangladesh most dense country in world 1252people per square km

Question 2

Some facts about differing populations?

Answer 2

Around 2027, India is
projected to overtake
China as the world’s most
populous country,

China’s population is
projected to decrease by
31.4 million, or around
2.2%, between 2019 and
2050.

Question 3

What will the world population look like in 2100?

Answer 3

Pop at 10-11bn,

2050 -> 9.7bn - High income nations basically flat at 1.3bn

Question 4

What is the Infant Mortality Rate?

Answer 4

the number of deaths of children (<1yr) per 1,000 live births.

Question 5

What is the Total Fertility Rate?

Answer 5

the average number of children that will be born to a woman in a population during her
reproductive years (15 to 49). For the world, in 2012, the TFR was 2.4

Question 6

What is the replacement fertility rate?

Answer 6

How many kids you gotta have to keep population number same as it is now

Currently at 2.1, anything below leads to declining pop numbers

Question 7

Why has the Total Fertility been dropping?

Answer 7

1. an increase in the
   age of ‘marriage’ or
2. from a decline in
   marital fertility

Question 8

What is the developmental transition of population growth?

Answer 8

STAGE 1 . high birth and high death
STAGE 2. Decrease in death but not decrease in birth as much
STAGE 3. Low birth and low death (Fully industrialised)

Question 9

What is the total dependency ratio?

Answer 9

Number of kids and elderly who depend upon the active labour force.

Split between youth dependency and old age dependency

Question 10

What happens with a low total dependency ratio?

Answer 10

Potential demographic dividend (i.e Taiwan, S. Korea -> High rates of savings and growth in post war period)

Question 11

What is the view of pop growth in low income and high income nations?

Answer 11

Population growth is generally considered to be excessive in poor countries, and too low in rich countries.

Question 12

How could the issue of population disparities be solved?

Answer 12

Should poor countries ‘export’ surplus population to the richer ones for mutual
benefit?

International migration (largely unrestricted in the age of empire(1850–1914), is
now severely restricted.

Question 13

Examples on dif countries pop pyramid

Answer 13

Kenya
0.05 elderly dependency

0.81 youth dependency

Jp

0. 38 Elderly
1. 22 youth

Question 14

What happens with a big middle section in the population pyramid?

Answer 14

Higher levels of income brought in which if paired with low dependency (youth and elderly) = high savings and invstments

But leads to future issue of high elderly and lower middle section

Question 15

What is the Malthusian Pop Trap?

Answer 15

Pop growth ahead of food production
- Food grows arithmetic (1,2,3) but pop grows geometrically (2,4,6,8)
Thus, population stagnation
Only way out is moral restraint to limit family sizes

Question 16

What is the explanation behind the Malthusian Pop Trap graph?

Answer 16

When growth rate above S, pop less resources and people starve and pop back to subsistence level (Cost of kids up)

Below S people have reason to grow family

SEE GRAPH IN NOTES

Question 17

What are the criticisms behind the Malthusian MOdel?

Answer 17

• Not consider tech
• ignores fertility choices are rational made on family basis together - What goes into the choice? What is culture like? (Malthus is a one size fits all solution)

Question 18

What is the Household Calculas of econ advantage?

i.e what decisions do families take before having a kid

Answer 18

In deciding number of kids, parents consider 3 types of benefits:

1. Source of income
   PV Benefits > PV Costs
2. Insurance
3. Utility
   Trade off between quality and quantity

Question 19

What is the MicroEcon Household theory of Fertility?

Answer 19

Explains that first 2 or 3 kids as consumer goods (they simply want kids)
Additional children as investment goods
(Old Age security, work on farm etc.)

Question 20

How is the MicroEcon Household theory of Fertility calculated?

Answer 20

Cd = f (Y,Pc,Px,tx)

Where
X = N number of people
Cd is the demand for surviving children
Y is the level of household income
Pc is the “net” price of children
Px is price of all other goods
tx is the desire/tastes/demand for other goods (relative to children).

Question 21

What indicates a family will want more kids? (Microecon theory)

Answer 21

Provided:
∂Cd/∂Y > 0 
∂Cd/∂Px >0
∂Cd/∂Pc <0
∂Cd/∂tx <0
∂Cd/∂Y > 0

Question 22

So if TFR varies with income does that make kids inferior goods? (Becker’s explanation)

Answer 22

There is a price effect as income increases.
1, Better-off parents prefer higher quality (than quantity)
2, Demand for children declines with income through
3. the ‘price’ (cost) effect.
4. Also, opportunity cost of parent’s time rises.

CHECK SLIDES

Question 23

So how does Becker conclude kids are normal goods and not inferior?

Answer 23

1. The demand for children increases as a function of income
   Children are ‘normal goods’.
   2.However, as income rises, so does the price of children and the taste for child quality, shifting
   the Income function downward.
2. If this price and taste effect is sufficiently large, the net effect is a declining observed demand
   for children, making them appear as ‘inferior goods

Question 24

What are the views into believing pop growth is not a real issue?

Answer 24

1. The real problem is not population growth but the following:
   • Underdevelopment
   • World resource depletion and environmental destruction
   • Population distribution
   • Subordination of women
2. “Overpopulation is a Deliberately Contrived False Issue”
3. “Population Growth is a Desirable Phenomenon”

Question 25

What are the views into believing pop growth is a real issue?

Answer 25

Lowers economic growth (recall Solow growth model’s K/L)
• Poverty, inequality and population growth are often associated
• Adverse impact on Education and on Health access
• Food constraints – limited access
• Impact on the environment (degradation)
• Frictions over international migration.

Question 26

What is the general consensus view?

Answer 26

1. (Over) population is not the primary cause of lower living levels, but may be one factor
2. Population growth is more a consequence, than a cause of underdevelopment

Question 27

What are some policy approaches toward pop growth?

Answer 27

1. Attend to underlying socioeconomic conditions that impact development
2. Family planning programs should provide education and technological means to regulate fertility
3. Developed countries have responsibilities too
4. Address gender bias & causes of ‘boy preference’.

Question 28

What are some things developed nations can do toward over population?

Answer 28

1. Sharing Research & Development (R&D) into technology of fertility control
   (WORLD FERTILITY SURVEY)
2. Fin assistance (World Pop plan of action)
3. Address resource use inequities