Topic 4 - Population Growth Flashcards
Why is Population Density such an important statistic?
Indicates availablity/sharing of food,water,shelter,safety etc.
Bangladesh most dense country in world 1252people per square km
Some facts about differing populations?
Around 2027, India is
projected to overtake
China as the world’s most
populous country,
China’s population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2%, between 2019 and 2050.
What will the world population look like in 2100?
Pop at 10-11bn,
2050 -> 9.7bn - High income nations basically flat at 1.3bn
What is the Infant Mortality Rate?
the number of deaths of children (<1yr) per 1,000 live births.
What is the Total Fertility Rate?
the average number of children that will be born to a woman in a population during her reproductive years (15 to 49). For the world, in 2012, the TFR was 2.4
What is the replacement fertility rate?
How many kids you gotta have to keep population number same as it is now
Currently at 2.1, anything below leads to declining pop numbers
Why has the Total Fertility been dropping?
- an increase in the
age of ‘marriage’ or - from a decline in
marital fertility
What is the developmental transition of population growth?
STAGE 1 . high birth and high death
STAGE 2. Decrease in death but not decrease in birth as much
STAGE 3. Low birth and low death (Fully industrialised)
What is the total dependency ratio?
Number of kids and elderly who depend upon the active labour force.
Split between youth dependency and old age dependency
What happens with a low total dependency ratio?
Potential demographic dividend (i.e Taiwan, S. Korea -> High rates of savings and growth in post war period)
What is the view of pop growth in low income and high income nations?
Population growth is generally considered to be excessive in poor countries, and too low in rich countries.
How could the issue of population disparities be solved?
Should poor countries ‘export’ surplus population to the richer ones for mutual
benefit?
International migration (largely unrestricted in the age of empire(1850–1914), is now severely restricted.
Examples on dif countries pop pyramid
Kenya
0.05 elderly dependency
0.81 youth dependency
Jp
- 38 Elderly
- 22 youth
What happens with a big middle section in the population pyramid?
Higher levels of income brought in which if paired with low dependency (youth and elderly) = high savings and invstments
But leads to future issue of high elderly and lower middle section
What is the Malthusian Pop Trap?
Pop growth ahead of food production
- Food grows arithmetic (1,2,3) but pop grows geometrically (2,4,6,8)
Thus, population stagnation
Only way out is moral restraint to limit family sizes
What is the explanation behind the Malthusian Pop Trap graph?
When growth rate above S, pop less resources and people starve and pop back to subsistence level (Cost of kids up)
Below S people have reason to grow family
SEE GRAPH IN NOTES
What are the criticisms behind the Malthusian MOdel?
- Not consider tech
- ignores fertility choices are rational made on family basis together - What goes into the choice? What is culture like? (Malthus is a one size fits all solution)
What is the Household Calculas of econ advantage?
i.e what decisions do families take before having a kid
In deciding number of kids, parents consider 3 types of benefits:
- Source of income
PV Benefits > PV Costs - Insurance
- Utility
Trade off between quality and quantity
What is the MicroEcon Household theory of Fertility?
Explains that first 2 or 3 kids as consumer goods (they simply want kids)
Additional children as investment goods
(Old Age security, work on farm etc.)
How is the MicroEcon Household theory of Fertility calculated?
Cd = f (Y,Pc,Px,tx)
Where X = N number of people Cd is the demand for surviving children Y is the level of household income Pc is the “net” price of children Px is price of all other goods tx is the desire/tastes/demand for other goods (relative to children).
What indicates a family will want more kids? (Microecon theory)
Provided: ∂Cd/∂Y > 0 ∂Cd/∂Px >0 ∂Cd/∂Pc <0 ∂Cd/∂tx <0 ∂Cd/∂Y > 0
So if TFR varies with income does that make kids inferior goods? (Becker’s explanation)
There is a price effect as income increases.
1, Better-off parents prefer higher quality (than quantity)
2, Demand for children declines with income through
3. the ‘price’ (cost) effect.
4. Also, opportunity cost of parent’s time rises.
CHECK SLIDES
So how does Becker conclude kids are normal goods and not inferior?
- The demand for children increases as a function of income
Children are ‘normal goods’.
2.However, as income rises, so does the price of children and the taste for child quality, shifting
the Income function downward. - If this price and taste effect is sufficiently large, the net effect is a declining observed demand
for children, making them appear as ‘inferior goods
What are the views into believing pop growth is not a real issue?
- The real problem is not population growth but the following:
• Underdevelopment
• World resource depletion and environmental destruction
• Population distribution
• Subordination of women - “Overpopulation is a Deliberately Contrived False Issue”
- “Population Growth is a Desirable Phenomenon”
What are the views into believing pop growth is a real issue?
Lowers economic growth (recall Solow growth model’s K/L)
• Poverty, inequality and population growth are often associated
• Adverse impact on Education and on Health access
• Food constraints – limited access
• Impact on the environment (degradation)
• Frictions over international migration.
What is the general consensus view?
- (Over) population is not the primary cause of lower living levels, but may be one factor
- Population growth is more a consequence, than a cause of underdevelopment
What are some policy approaches toward pop growth?
- Attend to underlying socioeconomic conditions that impact development
- Family planning programs should provide education and technological means to regulate fertility
- Developed countries have responsibilities too
- Address gender bias & causes of ‘boy preference’.
What are some things developed nations can do toward over population?
- Sharing Research & Development (R&D) into technology of fertility control
(WORLD FERTILITY SURVEY) - Fin assistance (World Pop plan of action)
- Address resource use inequities
