TOPIC 4 - Commodity markets Flashcards
Commodity market
A market place for buying, selling, and trading raw materials or primary products. EX. oil, food, gas, fertilizer
Commodity market before 2008
Rising price of commodities since 2002 to 2008, this contributed to TGR
Commodity market after 2008
After TGR reflects the intensity of the recoveryc of a resection, with ups and downs dependind on the expectations on the global growth
Shock in oil/natural gasses at the beginning of this century
Demand factors:
- Strong global economic growth
Supply factors:
- Geopolitical problems
- Increasing costs
- resources being expensive to extract
- unbalance in supply and demand
- lack of investment
Commodity market between 2011 to 2016
A downfall from 2011 (particularly in 2014) until 2016, when the commodity prices were stabilized on a moderate level
Commodity market during covid
- Oil prices fell dramatically in the early stages.
- Metal prices declined modestly
Commodity market today
Demand:
Has been rising in recent months as economies around the
world has started to reopen.
Supply:
Has declined due to:
- European domestic & US production has declined
- Russia is really the only discretionary source of supplies, but we do not want to trade as much with Russia due to the war
- During covid cut output and have since then been having trouble meeting recovering demand.
Factors moving prices down (7)
- Use of renewables
- OPEC’s inability to keep the traditional policy
- High energy efficiency
- Environmental change
- High level of investment
Factors moving prices up (4) today after covid
- Economic recovery
- Geopolitical problems
- Agreement between OPEC and several key non- OPEC producers
- Since Covid19 and Ucraina ́s war: problems in the global value chains.