Topic 2 Flashcards
Primary energy
Energy that is available in nature, not derivative or converted forms. Cannot be produced; must exist within or be constantly delivered to the energy system from outside. Available primary energy sources include:
Primary energy production
All energy come from primary energy, so it is possible to bound the system’s total energy requirements by looking at the total primary energy production across all energy types. Today 80% comes from fossil fuels
Secondary energy carriers
derivatives of primary energy that carry energy through the energy system
Total final consumption
Only a small fraction of the primary energy supply; has been transformed, purified, moved,directed, and distributed to exactly where the customer finds it desirable. Despite the losses, the value to the end customer should have increased dramatically. More than 70% of primary energy is lost by the time it reaches total final consumption
Final energy service
After a consumer receives total final consumption of energy, up to 90% can be lost at final energy service e.g. toaster oven, cold beer, transported people
Feedback loops
Feedback is the communication mechanism between stocks and flows, taking in data about the state of the system and communicating those to other elements of the system, causing them to react by either maintaining or adjusting their behavior. Feedback loops describe a complete cycle of these feedbacks, stocks, and flows that continually update each other; Help to explain system dynamics; feedback loops can be stabilizing and goal seeking or they can be runaway and reinforcing; the can only affect future behavior and not current behavior, i.e. lags and delays happen.
Stabilizing loops
a Sustaining Loop or Goal-Seeking Loops exhibits properties of stability or equilibrium e.g. self-regulating thermostat
Reinforcing loops
Runaway Loops or Reinforcing Loops cause a system that is out of balance to go further in that direction. e.g. avalanche
System purpose
In aggregate, the system has an outcome or system purpose. System purposes need not be human purposes and are not necessarily those intended by any single actor within the system.
Reference scenario
Scenarios are the same kind of modeling exercise that simply establishes a relationship suggesting if the input variables are true, then the output parameters should be what the model suggest. It is a formulation of the work that suggests a model is sound, but the input assumptions are either uncertain or are presented for illustrative purposes. By calling something a forecast, it asserts that both the model and the input assumptions are right, and therefore the output is expected to approximate future reality. A REFERENCE scenario is the baseline scenario that other scenarios can be compared against.
Dose-response curve
Changes in behavior from a current path represent an entire class of non-linearities in system dynamics. One framework for the examination of these non-linearities comes out of medical field which tries to understand the amount of treatment or medicine provided to patient (dose) and what kind of reaction (response). More often than not, increasing the dose creates a nonlinear response in the patient. These non-linear responses can even change direction, with small doses creating one effect and substantially larger doses reversing that.
Cartel
an association of manufacturers or suppliers with the purpose of maintaining prices at a high level and restricting competition.; oligopoly
Social cost of carbon
EPA and other federal agencies use the social cost of carbon (SCC) to estimate the climate benefits of rulemakings. The SCC is an estimate of the economic damages associated with a small increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, conventionally one metric ton, in a given year. This dollar figure also represents the value of damages avoided for a small emission reduction (i.e. the benefit of a CO2 reduction).
Market failure
In economics, market failure is a situation in which the allocation of goods and services by a free market is not efficient. That is, there exists another conceivable outcome where a market participant may be made better-off without making someone else worse-off. (The outcome is not Pareto optimal.) Market failures can be viewed as scenarios where individuals’ pursuit of pure self-interest leads to results that are not efficient – that can be improved upon from the societal point of view
Myopia
Subjectivity of time causes people to behave differently in their determination of value across time. The discount rate applied to valuations in the future varies. Temporal myopia is when individuals place far too much important on things that are happening in the present or in the near future, as compared to those in the distant future. We can see people’s imputed discount rates, or the rate that they are implicitly willing to pay, by looking at the choices that they will make between two alternatives presented both in the present and the future. Results in higher discount rate than would be observed by rational agent.
Non-linearities
Systems appear to be in a steady state can begin to change, sometimes slowly and sometimes quickly. When observing a system in whole, these changes in behavior from the current path represent an entire class of nonlinearities. Nonlinearities can take many forms.
Stock
foundation of any systems, you can see, feel, count, or measure at any given time; stocks change through time through the actions of flows (first derivative)
Flows
A flow is the first derivative of a stock. Transformations. It is the rate of change of an object.
Public Good
Items that can be produced relatively cheaply, or already exist, but are very difficult to prevent users from enjoying or participating in, technically referred to in economics as the inability to exclude. Commonly owned resources = commons
Externality (positive and negative)
effects that are felt by others outside of the parties to the transaction. Negative externality: e.g. pollution, will typically include excess consumption by customers who observe this relatively lower price: more example: over-absorption of resources, pushing off costs to the future, or misallocation of risks to secondary or tertiary parties to a transaction. Positive externalities: can result from activities that is paid for by one person and is freely transferred to others for their benefit e.g. education, invention. Externalities cause a loss of efficiency in the overall system.
Expectations
a possible method (policy mechanism) to alter the overall system: Expectations: government signaling priorities, social objectives, and future pathways can change people’s expectations of the future. Small shifts in priorities can cause a meaningful migration of resources, efforts and risk perception
Uncertainty
another possible method (policy mechanism) to alter the overall system. Governments can affect uncertainty, which feeds back in the cost of capital and expectations, and it is often done in the positive direction (i.e. reducing uncertainty) by the provision of insurance, guarantees, or fixed payment obligations by the government to some stakeholders and market participants
Administrative burden
Interventions should be low burden. many initiatives are measured by how much of the resource that is being applied goes to meet the intended goal of the policy and how much is used to administer the program. minimizing administrative burden is a reasonable goal, but may be in conflict with impact or urgency if rapid deployment is deemed necessary
Unintended consequences
No matter what law or regulation is proposed, they almost always are accompanied by unintended consequences, or unexpected effects on market behavior. These are often deleterious, and if they are severe enough may give rise to the need for counterbalancing legislation to correct for these policy distortions.
