Three point estimation Flashcards
How do we find the most optimistic, likely and pessimistic values?
By expert judgment
Why should we use three-point instead of one-point?
- Correcting for cognitive bias
-Sesquipedalian loquaciousness
What are the differences between Monte Carlo and Three-point distribution?
Three-point is just a Monte Carlo in disguise. Similar to Monte Carlo we assume in three-point that the cost is a random number drawn from a specified statistical distribution. But instead of taking the average of a large number of pseudo-random draws, we calculate the average of the theoretical underlying distribution.
Three-point restrict itself to either a triangular or Pert -distribution.
Three-point estimation’s accuracy relies on the quality of expert input, whereas Monte Carlo simulation offers higher accuracy by considering numerous potential scenarios and their probabilities.
Three-point estimation requires three expert-derived estimates per task, while Monte Carlo simulation needs detailed probability distributions and extensive data.
Three-point estimation suits simpler projects needing quick estimates, whereas Monte Carlo simulation is ideal for complex projects requiring detailed risk analysis.
Why do Three-point restrict itself to only Triangular or Pert distribution?
