Thinking, reasoning and decision making Flashcards
What is inductive reasoning?
A process of reasoning that relies on making a judgement based on limited observations. The outcome is probably and not definite. It is also known as bottom up reasoning.
What factors affect inductive reasoning?
1) representativeness of observations
2) number of observations
3) quality of evidence
What is a heuristic?
It is a mental shortcut that helps guide decision making. It is probabilistic and is also know as a rule of thumb.
What is the availability heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973)?
Events that are more easily remembered are judged to be more probable.
What is an illusory correlation?
When a correlation is drawn when it doesn’t actually exist.
What is an example of a illusory correlation?
Stereotype
What is the representativeness heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974)?
Observations of a person are used to judge that they belong to a certain group as the observations appear to fit a stereotype.
Why does the representativeness heuristic occur?
It is because the base rates are ignored/not considered.
What is the conjunction rule?
The probability of 2 conjunctions will never be higher than a single one.
What is the concern about small samples?
It is not necessarily representative.
What is the law of large numbers?
It states that larger samples will be more representative than small samples.
What is the myside bias (McKenzie, 2004)?
It is a type of confirmation bias relating to opinions and attitudes. It reflects the tendency of observers to favor evidence that is aligned with their own beliefs.
How does confirmation bias affect us?
Confirmation bias acts like a pair of blinkers, we only see the world in the way we think is correct!
What is a filter bubble?
An effect of being presented only with information and events that fit with one’s existing point of view.
What is a tactic for guarding against confirmation bias?
Testing a hypothesis that is against the existing thinking.
What is deductive reasoning?
A process of reasoning where one tests if conclusions logically follow the premises.
What is a syllogism?
A type of argument with 2 premises and a conclusion.
What does validity in a syllogism represent?
It means that the conclusion must logically follow from the premises.
What is a categorical syllogism?
A syllogism that uses “All”, “None” or “Some”.
What is belief bias?
The tendency to believe a syllogism is valid if the conclusion is believable.