Theme 4 Flashcards
3 sections of the BoP
Current Account, Capital Account, Financial Account
Areas of the current Account
Balance of trade in goods, balance of trade in services, net primary income, net secondary income
Areas of the capital account
Transfer of ownership of fixed assets, sale/transfer of patents
Areas of the Financial Account
Net balance of FDI, balance of banking flows, changes to value of gold reserves
What must the BoP always be?
Final value of 0
Reasons for surplus and deficit is
Uneven distribution of natural resources, differential competitiveness, inflation, domestic and government spending
Reasons for a current account deficit
Poor price and non-price competitiveness, strong exchange rates effecting demand for imports and exports, recession in one or more trade partner countries, volatile global prices
Structural causes of a current account deficit (long-term)
Under-investment, relatively low productivity, persistently high relative inflation, inadequate r and d, emergence of lower cost competition
Cyclical causes of a current account deficit
Over-valued exchange rate, boom in domestic demand, recession in key export markets, slump in global prices of exports, increased demand for imported technology
Recession
2 consecutive quarters of negative growth
Significance of a current account deficit
Outflow of AD on circular flow of income, drag in GDP growth, loss of jobs in export sectors, fall in foreign exchange reserves, weakened exchange rate
Difference between Fiscal and Trade deficit
Fiscal - government debt, Trade - Current Account deficit
Consequences of a current account deficit
Lowers AD, debt burdens, worsens exchange rate
How is Lower AD a consequence of a current account deficit?
Lowers demand, which lowers growth and increases unemployment
How are debt burdens a consequence of a current account deficit?
To balance deficit, countries must have a financial account surplus. To gain a surplus, countries sell bonds and use hot money, which causes issues as doesn’t help the current account deficit and as debut increases, other countries lose confidence as don’t receive money back
How is a worsening exchange rate a consequence of a current account deficit?
Large amount of imports mean more countries gain the pound, so the supply increases which worsens the exchange rate
Expenditure switching policies
Exchange rate, protectionism, deflationary, supply-side, government investment in industry
Deflationary Policy
Tight Fiscal and Tight Monetary Policy - leads to a drop in import demand
Benefits of Supply-Side Policies
Drop in prices, exports more competitive
Methods to increase supply
Training, subsidies, education, machinery
3 areas of supply-side policy
Increase size of labour force, increase productivity, increase efficiency of business
Issues of tight monetary and tight fiscal policy
Conflict of objectives, high consumer and business confidence, output gap ( full employment), inelastic imports
Protectionism
Taxes on imports (tariffs), banning imports (embargo’s), only import a certain amount (quota), increase Uk production(domestic subsidies)
Problems of protectionism
Other countries will retaliate, non-price factors, inflationary issues, WTO rules, loss of efficiency
Exchange rate policies
Loose monetary ( weakening interest rates), selling £ or buying foreign currency, increase money supply ( Quantitative Easing )
Problems of exchange rate policies
Liquidity Trap, non-price competition, currency wars
Marshall Learner Condition
Devaluation of a currency will only improve BoP if sum of the prices elasticities of its imports and exports are greater than one
J-curve reasonings
Long-time change ( buying on a national scale), imports get more expensive before exports get cheaper
Reasons why a current account deficit doesn’t matter
Capital flows (improve financial account), partial auto correction ( pound weaken anyway if importing more than exporting) , Internal correction ( investment and supply-side policies)
Reasons why a current account deficit matters
Reliance on trade, unbalanced economy, issued financing debt, loss of output and employment, downward exchange rate pressure
Reasons for a Current Account Surplus
Export orientated growth, FDI, under-valued exchange rate, productive efficiency, closed economy, new resource discoveries
Consequences of a current account surplus
Inflation, financial account deficit, appreciate the exchange rate, reliance on exports, harm international relations
Spot Exchange Rate
Rate for a currency at today’s market prices
Forward Exchange Rate
Fixing a rate for a currency up until a certain period of time (more businesses)
Bi-Lateral Exchange Rate
Rate at which one currency can be traded against another
Floating Exchange Rate
Value is determined by demand and supply for the currency
Advantages of a floating exchange rate
Stability in Bop, unrestricted foreign exchange, enhance market efficiency, import inflation protected, freedom for domestic monetary policy
Limitations of a floating exchange rate
Exposed to volatility, restricted economic growth, loss of exchange rate as policy tool
Fixed Exchange Rate
Value of the currency is fixed
Advantages of a fixed exchange rate
Doesn’t suffer from volatility, unrestricted export growth, maintain low inflation levels, reinforces gains in comparative advantage, higher confidence for importers/exporters
Limitations of a fixed exchange rate
Lack of flexibility to external economic shocks, BoP issues, dependence on reserves, currency could be overvalued
Managed-Floating Exchange Rate
When a Central Bank may choose to intervene in the foreign exchange market to affect the value of a currency to meet specific macroeconomic objectives
Advantages of a managed-floating exchange rate
Economic stability,monetary autonomy, trade competitiveness, risk diversification, improve export competitiveness, control demand-pull inflation, reduce import prices
Intervention for a depreciation of a currency
Expand QE to stimulate money supply and lower bond yields. Government buy assets from overseas, return on FDI falls so countries take money out
Intervention for appreciation of currency
Reduce taxes on income from assets to attract overseas investors to buy a currency
Limitations of a managed-floating exchange rate
Requires large-scale foreign exchange reserves, bank have no power against global economies, conflict of objectives
Reasons for government spending
Efficiency and market failure, equity and equality, macroeconomic management