The Signal and the Noise Flashcards
0
Q
In Bayes’ Theorem, how do you read P(A|B)?
A
The probability of event A given event B.
1
Q
What is Bayes’ Theorem?
A
P(B|A) P(A)
P(A|B) = —————-
P(B)
2
Q
What is the definition of “risk”?
A
The odds of something happening that you can clearly measure.
3
Q
What is the definition of “uncertainty”?
A
The odds of something happening that you cannot measure accurately or precisely.
4
Q
What are Nate Silver’s three principles for thinking like a “fox”?
A
(1) Think probabilistically
(2) Make the best forecast possible today - regardless of what you said yesterday
(3) Look for consensus
