The Psychology of Misjudgments

Question 1

Bias from Mere Association

Answer 1

People can influence us by associating a product, service, person, investment, or a situation with something you like.

Question 2

Underestimating the Power of Rewards and Punishment

Answer 2

We do what is rewarding and avoid what we are punished for. Install systems and rules that encourage the behavior you want.

Question 3

Underestimating Bias from Own Self-Interest and Incentives

Answer 3

Don’t automatically trust people who have something at stake from your decision. Understand people’s motivations: money, status, love of work, reputation, position, power, and envy.

Question 4

Self-Serving Bias

Answer 4

We tend to overestimate our abilities and future prospects when we are knowledgable on a subject, feel in control, or after we have been successful.

Question 5

Self-Deception and Denial

Answer 5

We deny and distort reality to feel more comfortable, especially when reality threatens our self-interest.

Question 6

Bias from Consistency Tendency

Answer 6

We look for evidence that confirms our ideas, beliefs, and actions. Devising reasons why we might be wrong doesn’t come easily.

Question 7

Bias from Deprival Syndrome

Answer 7

We put a higher value on the things we already own than we are willing to pay for the same things if we didn’t own them.

Question 8

Status Quo Bias and Do-Nothing Syndrome

Answer 8

We are bothered more by the harm that comes from action than the harm that comes from inaction. Deciding to do nothing is also a decision, and the cost of doing nothing could be higher.

Question 9

Impatience Bias

Answer 9

We give more weight to the present than to the future. We seek pleasure today at the cost of what may be better in the future.

Question 10

Bias from Envy and Jealousy

Answer 10

We evaluate our situation by comparing what we have with what others have.

Question 11

Distortion by Contrast Comparison

Answer 11

We judge stimuli by differences and changes and not by absolute magnitudes. How we value things depends on what we compare them with.

Question 12

Bias from Anchoring

Answer 12

We are over-influenced by certain information acting as a reference “anchor” for future judgments.

Question 13

Over-Influence by Most Recent Information

Answer 13

The more dramatic, salient, personal, entertaining, or emotional some information, event, or experience is, the more influenced we are. We loved to be entertained.

Question 14

Omission and Abstract Blindness

Answer 14

When planning, we often place too much importance on the specific future event and not enough on other possible events and their consequences that can cause the event to be delayed or not happen.

Question 15

Bias from Reciprocation Tendency

Answer 15

We tend to repay in kind what others have done for us — good or bad.

Question 16

Bias from Over-Influence by Liking Tendency

Answer 16

We want to be liked and accepted. We believe, trust, and agree with people we know and like.

Question 17

Bias from Over-Influence by Social Proof

Answer 17

In a group, we are easily seduced because of our need for social acceptance. We are wired to make a huge number of decisions in our life based purely on other people’s actions. We also feel anonymous in group settings, which reduces are feelings of responsibility, leading to overconfident, risky behavior.

Question 18

Bias from Over-Influence by Authority

Answer 18

We are most easily influenced by credible authorities instead of evaluating the truth of a statement based on its underlying facts.

Question 19

Sensemaking

Answer 19

We underestimate the influence of chance. We want to find reasons for all kinds of events — random or not.

Question 20

Reason-Respecting

Answer 20

We underestimate the importance of giving people a reason. It is often easier to get people to change with a well-explained reason backed by solid evidence. Can also be used against us, be careful!

Question 21

Believing First and Doubting Later

Answer 21

The more distracted or pressured we are, the more likely we believe in something we normally would find dubious.

Question 22

Memory Limitations

Answer 22

Our memory is selective. We remember certain things and distort or forget others. We only remember fragments of our real past experiences.

Question 23

Do-Something Syndrome

Answer 23

We sometimes act because we feel bored, impatient, threatened, pressured, or desire excitement and stimulation.

Question 24

Mental Confusion from Say-Something Syndrome

Answer 24

We tend to speak out even if we have nothing to contribute.

Question 25

Emotional Arousal

Answer 25

When we feel sad, we may want to change our circumstances so we will feel better. This can cause us to overpay for something or buy things we don’t need. When going through an emotional experience, you should hold off on important decisions.

Question 26

Mental Confusion from Stress

Answer 26

The more stress we experience, the more we tend to make short-term decisions.

Question 27

Mental Confusion from Physical or Psychological Pain

Answer 27

We become confused when we are in pain, under the influence of chemicals, or have a physical or mental illness. Drugs, stimulants, and depressants distort our senses.

Question 28

Bias from Over-Influence of Many Psychological Tendencies Operating Together

Answer 28

Our behavior is influenced by social situational factors, conditions and circumstances, the structure or description of a problem or choice, and our desires, mood, and expectations.

Question 29

Availability-Misweighing Tendency

Answer 29

We tend to overemphasize information that is the most available and vivid from our surroundings and our mind. In the academic world, this is known as the Availability Bias. Unfortunately, The easiness doesn’t mean that the information is the most useful one.

Question 30

Twaddle Tendency

Answer 30

People tend to talk a lot about things they’re not an expert in. Be very careful of these people. Instead, try to surround yourself with people who show restraint in sharing their opinions until they’re more proven or thought through.

Question 31

Lollapalooza Tendency

Answer 31

Lollapalooza Tendency is the tendency to get extreme consequences from confluences of psychological tendencies acting in favor of a particular outcome.

Question 32

Deprival-Superreaction Tendency

Answer 32

We tend to intensely react to any real loss or potential loss irrationally. This explains in-fighting that occurs within bureaucracies.

Question 33

Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency

Answer 33

We rarely do things that are inconsistent with our identity, beliefs, and habits. To save energy, we are often reluctant to change our habits, especially bad ones. Such bad habits include biased thinking patterns.

Question 34

Mental Model

Answer 34

Some kind of representation that describes how reality is (as it is known today) – a principle, an idea, basic concepts, something that works or not – that I have in my head that helps me know what to do or not. Something that has stood the test of time.

Question 35

Hindsight Bias

Answer 35

Once we know the outcome, it’s nearly impossible to turn back the clock mentally. Our narrative instinct leads us to reason that we knew it all along (whatever “it” is), when in fact we are often simply reasoning post-hoc with information not available to us before the event. keep a journal of important decisions.

Question 36

Fundamental Attribution Error

Tendency to Overestimate Consistency of Behavior

Answer 36

We tend to over-ascribe the behavior of others to their innate traits rather than to situational factors, leading us to overestimate how consistent that behavior will be in the future.

Question 37

Fallacy

Answer 37

a flawed
general type of
argument that
establishes a
faulty connection
between premises
and conclusion,
thus failing to give
us a good reason
to accept the
conclusion