The Psychology of Misjudgments Flashcards
Bias from Mere Association
People can influence us by associating a product, service, person, investment, or a situation with something you like.
Underestimating the Power of Rewards and Punishment
We do what is rewarding and avoid what we are punished for. Install systems and rules that encourage the behavior you want.
Underestimating Bias from Own Self-Interest and Incentives
Don’t automatically trust people who have something at stake from your decision. Understand people’s motivations: money, status, love of work, reputation, position, power, and envy.
Self-Serving Bias
We tend to overestimate our abilities and future prospects when we are knowledgable on a subject, feel in control, or after we have been successful.
Self-Deception and Denial
We deny and distort reality to feel more comfortable, especially when reality threatens our self-interest.
Bias from Consistency Tendency
We look for evidence that confirms our ideas, beliefs, and actions. Devising reasons why we might be wrong doesn’t come easily.
Bias from Deprival Syndrome
We put a higher value on the things we already own than we are willing to pay for the same things if we didn’t own them.
Status Quo Bias and Do-Nothing Syndrome
We are bothered more by the harm that comes from action than the harm that comes from inaction. Deciding to do nothing is also a decision, and the cost of doing nothing could be higher.
Impatience Bias
We give more weight to the present than to the future. We seek pleasure today at the cost of what may be better in the future.
Bias from Envy and Jealousy
We evaluate our situation by comparing what we have with what others have.
Distortion by Contrast Comparison
We judge stimuli by differences and changes and not by absolute magnitudes. How we value things depends on what we compare them with.
Bias from Anchoring
We are over-influenced by certain information acting as a reference “anchor” for future judgments.
Over-Influence by Most Recent Information
The more dramatic, salient, personal, entertaining, or emotional some information, event, or experience is, the more influenced we are. We loved to be entertained.
Omission and Abstract Blindness
When planning, we often place too much importance on the specific future event and not enough on other possible events and their consequences that can cause the event to be delayed or not happen.
Bias from Reciprocation Tendency
We tend to repay in kind what others have done for us — good or bad.
Bias from Over-Influence by Liking Tendency
We want to be liked and accepted. We believe, trust, and agree with people we know and like.
Bias from Over-Influence by Social Proof
In a group, we are easily seduced because of our need for social acceptance. We are wired to make a huge number of decisions in our life based purely on other people’s actions. We also feel anonymous in group settings, which reduces are feelings of responsibility, leading to overconfident, risky behavior.
Bias from Over-Influence by Authority
We are most easily influenced by credible authorities instead of evaluating the truth of a statement based on its underlying facts.
Sensemaking
We underestimate the influence of chance. We want to find reasons for all kinds of events — random or not.
Reason-Respecting
We underestimate the importance of giving people a reason. It is often easier to get people to change with a well-explained reason backed by solid evidence. Can also be used against us, be careful!
Believing First and Doubting Later
The more distracted or pressured we are, the more likely we believe in something we normally would find dubious.
Memory Limitations
Our memory is selective. We remember certain things and distort or forget others. We only remember fragments of our real past experiences.
Do-Something Syndrome
We sometimes act because we feel bored, impatient, threatened, pressured, or desire excitement and stimulation.
Mental Confusion from Say-Something Syndrome
We tend to speak out even if we have nothing to contribute.
Emotional Arousal
When we feel sad, we may want to change our circumstances so we will feel better. This can cause us to overpay for something or buy things we don’t need. When going through an emotional experience, you should hold off on important decisions.
Mental Confusion from Stress
The more stress we experience, the more we tend to make short-term decisions.
Mental Confusion from Physical or Psychological Pain
We become confused when we are in pain, under the influence of chemicals, or have a physical or mental illness. Drugs, stimulants, and depressants distort our senses.
Bias from Over-Influence of Many Psychological Tendencies Operating Together
Our behavior is influenced by social situational factors, conditions and circumstances, the structure or description of a problem or choice, and our desires, mood, and expectations.
Availability-Misweighing Tendency
We tend to overemphasize information that is the most available and vivid from our surroundings and our mind. In the academic world, this is known as the Availability Bias. Unfortunately, The easiness doesn’t mean that the information is the most useful one.
Twaddle Tendency
People tend to talk a lot about things they’re not an expert in. Be very careful of these people. Instead, try to surround yourself with people who show restraint in sharing their opinions until they’re more proven or thought through.
Lollapalooza Tendency
Lollapalooza Tendency is the tendency to get extreme consequences from confluences of psychological tendencies acting in favor of a particular outcome.
Deprival-Superreaction Tendency
We tend to intensely react to any real loss or potential loss irrationally. This explains in-fighting that occurs within bureaucracies.
Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency
We rarely do things that are inconsistent with our identity, beliefs, and habits. To save energy, we are often reluctant to change our habits, especially bad ones. Such bad habits include biased thinking patterns.
Mental Model
Some kind of representation that describes how reality is (as it is known today) – a principle, an idea, basic concepts, something that works or not – that I have in my head that helps me know what to do or not. Something that has stood the test of time.
Hindsight Bias
Once we know the outcome, it’s nearly impossible to turn back the clock mentally. Our narrative instinct leads us to reason that we knew it all along (whatever “it” is), when in fact we are often simply reasoning post-hoc with information not available to us before the event. keep a journal of important decisions.
Fundamental Attribution Error
Tendency to Overestimate Consistency of Behavior
We tend to over-ascribe the behavior of others to their innate traits rather than to situational factors, leading us to overestimate how consistent that behavior will be in the future.
Fallacy
a flawed general type of argument that establishes a faulty connection between premises and conclusion, thus failing to give us a good reason to accept the conclusion
