The Political Economy of Oil and Politics in the Gulf

Question 1

What were the key events in the early 1970s that shaped the international politics of the Persian/Arabian Gulf region?

Answer 1

The key events in the early 1970s that shaped the international politics of the Persian/Arabian Gulf region were the British withdrawal from its protectorate over the Arab states of the lower Gulf and the dramatic increase in world oil prices.

Question 2

How did the British withdrawal from the Gulf region and the increase in world oil prices affect the balance of power and the ambitions of regional states?

Answer 2

The British withdrawal from the Gulf region and the increase in world oil prices significantly affected the balance of power and the ambitions of regional states. It led to the three major regional states - Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia - gaining vastly increased military and economic power, which made their foreign policies more ambitious. The absence of significant great power presence in the area temporarily removed restraints and allowed regional states to take forward and aggressive roles.

Question 3

What are some of the challenges faced by Gulf states in projecting power regionally, and how do these challenges relate to domestic stability concerns?

Answer 3

Gulf states face challenges in projecting power regionally due to difficulties in state-building and domestic stability concerns. The social dislocations brought on by great oil wealth contributed to the downfall of regimes like the Shah’s regime in Iran. Additionally, centrifugal forces threatened the integrity of the Iraqi state, and Gulf monarchies faced challenges to their domestic stability.

Question 4

How has the United States’ role in the Gulf evolved since the Iranian revolution in 1979, and what major events highlight this evolution?

Answer 4

The United States’ role in the Gulf evolved significantly since the Iranian revolution in 1979. Washington took a more direct military and political role in the region, culminating in the US invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003.

Question 5

What impact did the agreement reached between Iran and major world powers in 2015 have on the Gulf region, and why did some American allies display hostility towards this deal?

Answer 5

The agreement reached between Iran and major world powers in 2015 had the potential to usher in a new, less confrontational phase in Gulf politics and institute significant checks on Iranian nuclear activities. However, some American allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, displayed hostility towards this deal, which eventually led to its abandonment by the United States in 2018.

Question 6

How do Arab nationalist, Islamic, and ethnic identities transcend Gulf borders, and what implications do these identities have for foreign policies in the region?

Answer 6

Arab nationalist, Islamic, and ethnic identities transcend Gulf borders, influencing foreign policies in the region. These identities have implications for cooperation and conflict among Gulf states and with outside powers.

Question 7

What role did transnational identities play in exacerbating the sense of threat faced by Gulf rulers, and how were these identities manipulated by various regimes?

Answer 7

Transnational identities exacerbated the sense of threat faced by Gulf rulers. Ba’athist Iraq’s Arab nationalism, revolutionary Shi’a Islam, and Kurdish identity were factors that influenced domestic stability and were manipulated by various regimes.

Question 8

In what ways did the failure of the United States to create a stable regime in Iraq and the Arab uprisings impact outside power hegemony in the Gulf region?

Answer 8

The failure of the United States to create a stable regime in Iraq and the Arab uprisings highlighted local obstacles to outside power hegemony in the Gulf region, despite the US being the most powerful country in the world.

Question 9

How has the lack of mutual trust among key players affected the path to more cooperative relations in the Gulf and wider Middle East?

Answer 9

The lack of mutual trust among key players has hindered the path to more cooperative relations in the Gulf and wider Middle East, as seen in the hostility towards the Iran nuclear deal.

Question 10

What are some of the ongoing challenges and complexities in understanding the Gulf regional system beyond classical realist and balance-of-power politics?

Answer 10

Beyond classical realist and balance-of-power politics, ongoing challenges and complexities in understanding the Gulf regional system include the interplay of domestic stability concerns, transnational identities, and the influence of outside powers like the United States.

Question 11

How has US policy towards the Gulf region evolved over time?

Answer 11

United States interest in the Gulf has remained constant due to the strategic importance of oil, but the tactics pursued by the US have changed significantly. The US has taken a more direct role in Gulf security since the late 1980s, which has constrained the freedom of action of local states.

Question 12

What impact did the US military withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 have on regional dynamics?

Answer 12

The US military withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 opened a new chapter in Iraq’s history, but it did not reduce the role of regional powers in its politics. Instead, it led to heightened regional instability and increased the influence of regional powers like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others in Iraq.

Question 13

How did the agreement to regulate Iranian nuclear ambitions affect regional dynamics?

Answer 13

Relations between Iran and the US seemed to head towards normalization after an agreement to regulate Iranian nuclear ambitions was reached. However, this agreement was fiercely resisted by stalwart US allies in the region, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, who viewed it as a threat to their interests

Question 14

What were the key milestones in the negotiations between the P5+1 (five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) and Iran regarding the Iranian nuclear program?

Answer 14

A detailed preliminary agreement between the P5+1 and Iran was reached in November 2013, and a formal declaration on the parameters of a formal agreement was signed in Lausanne on 2 April 2015. These negotiations were presented as separate from US-Iran relations but had the potential to lead to a lessening of tensions between the two key actors.

Question 15

How did the withdrawal of the United States from the agreement on Iranian nuclear ambitions impact regional dynamics?

Answer 15

The withdrawal of the United States from the agreement in 2018 paused the normalization of relations between Iran and the US. This withdrawal was viewed positively by Israel and Saudi Arabia, as it emboldened their foreign policies and signaled a shift in US policy towards Iran.

Question 16

What are the implications of the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement for the future of regional stability?

Answer 16

Despite assurances by other parties committed to making the agreement work, it is likely that the US withdrawal will lead to its eventual undoing, suffering a ‘death by a thousand cuts’. This could further destabilize the region and impact the balance of power among regional actors.

Question 17

What were the key events leading up to Iraq’s decision to go to war with Iran in 1980?

Answer 17

The Iranian revolution in 1979 marked a significant shift in Iran’s relations with Iraq. Border crises in 1969 and 1975 were followed by the Algiers agreement in 1975, which temporarily eased tensions. However, after the Iranian revolution, relations deteriorated rapidly due to border clashes, Iraqi Shi’a opposition, and Iranian calls for overthrowing the Ba’athist regime.

Question 18

How did the Iranian revolution impact Iraq’s perception of Iran and its domestic stability?

Answer 18

The Iranian revolution weakened Iran in conventional power terms but led to a more militant stance by Iranian leaders, including calls to export the revolution. This, coupled with rising Shi’a opposition in Iraq, was perceived as a threat to Iraq’s domestic stability and prompted a shift in Iraqi policy towards Iran.

Question 19

What were the key factors that led to Iraq’s decision to initiate war with Iran in 1980?

Answer 19

Iraq’s decision to go to war with Iran in 1980 was influenced by a perceived threat from Iran’s revolutionary ideology and support for domestic unrest in Iraq. The execution of Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, border clashes, and the failure of an attempted military coup in Iran further escalated tensions.

Question 20

How did the events following Iraq’s decision to go to war impact the conflict’s outcome?

Answer 20

Iraq’s attack on Iran was unsuccessful in achieving its objectives, leading to a prolonged and bloody conflict. Iranian counter-attacks pushed Iraqi forces out of Iranian territory, and the war continued for six years with occasional gains by Iran. The involvement of the US navy in protecting oil tankers and the eventual acceptance of a ceasefire by Iran marked the end of the conflict.

Question 20

What were the consequences of the Iran-Iraq War for both countries?

Answer 20

The Iran-Iraq War resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides and left the two countries in essentially the same position as before the war. It also involved international actors, such as the US navy, and had significant economic and social impacts on both Iran and Iraq.

Question 21

When did Saddam Hussein decide to attack Kuwait, and what were the factors leading to this decision?

Answer 21

Saddam Hussein’s decision to invade Kuwait was likely made shortly before the actual invasion, with no source placing the decision earlier than the spring of 1990. The decision was influenced by Iraq’s perception of an international conspiracy aimed at weakening Iraq economically and domestically, blaming Kuwait and the UAE for low oil prices and accusing the US of adopting a hostile attitude towards Iraq.

Question 22

What were the key events and factors that triggered Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990?

Answer 22

Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait was triggered by perceived international conspiracies against Iraq, including economic pressures, accusations of Israeli threats, and internal fears of destabilization. Changes in Saddam Hussein’s rhetoric and foreign policy, such as threats against Israel and demands for financial aid from Kuwait, indicated a shift towards aggressive actions.

Question 23

How did Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait affect regional and international dynamics?

Answer 23

Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait led to a swift international response, including military intervention by the US-led coalition. The Gulf War ended with Iraq’s defeat, Kuwait’s liberation, and US dominance in the region. However, Saddam Hussein’s regime remained in power despite Iraq’s defeat on the battlefield, leading to a decade of sanctions and isolation for Iraq.

Question 24

What strategies did Saddam Hussein employ to navigate the post-Gulf War era and mitigate international pressure?

Answer 24

Saddam Hussein sought to weaken the international consensus against Iraq through diplomatic maneuvers and attempts to elicit sympathy, particularly from Arab countries. The Oil for Food program established in 1995 provided some relief from sanctions but did not alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Iraq or lessen criticism of the sanction regime.

Question 25

What were the long-term consequences of the Gulf War and Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait?

Answer 25

The Gulf War and Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait had lasting consequences, including Iraq’s isolation, economic hardships due to sanctions, and ongoing international scrutiny. The end of the sanctions regime in 2003 coincided with regime change in Iraq, highlighting the enduring impact of the conflict on Iraq’s domestic and international affairs.

Question 26

How did the Iranian revolution impact Saudi Arabia’s strategic position in the region?

Answer 26

The Iranian revolution posed a significant challenge to Saudi Arabia’s legitimacy and stability as an Islamic monarchy. The revolutionaries in Tehran openly questioned the al-Saud’s Islamic credentials, leading to unrest among Shi’i communities in neighboring Gulf states and challenges during the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

Question 27

What was Saudi Arabia’s stance during the Iran–Iraq War, and what factors influenced its decision-making?

Answer 27

During the Iran–Iraq War, Saudi Arabia aligned with Iraq despite concerns about Saddam Hussein’s ultimate intentions. Saudi Arabia provided substantial financial aid to Iraq, permitted Iraqi military access to Saudi bases, and facilitated the trans-shipment of goods to Iraq through its ports. This alignment was driven by shared interests in containing the Iranian threat and ensuring regional stability.

Question 28

How did Saudi Arabia support Iraq during the Iran–Iraq War, and what impact did this support have on the conflict?

Answer 28

Saudi Arabia’s support for Iraq during the Iran–Iraq War included financial aid, military equipment, and the sale of oil from the Saudi–Kuwaiti neutral zone. This support helped Iraq sustain its war effort and counter Iranian advances into its territory. Saudi Arabia’s assistance played a crucial role in maintaining Iraq’s capabilities and prolonging the conflict.

Question 29

What opportunities did the Iran–Iraq War create for Saudi Arabia in terms of regional influence?

Answer 29

The Iran–Iraq War allowed Saudi Arabia to organize and lead the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), comprising smaller monarchies in the region. The war diverted attention away from internal challenges within Saudi Arabia and enabled the kingdom to assert its leadership role in regional affairs through the GCC, despite occasional disagreements among member states

Question 30

What were the long-term implications of Saudi Arabia’s involvement and support for Iraq during the Iran–Iraq War?

Answer 30

Saudi Arabia’s support for Iraq during the Iran–Iraq War had both immediate and long-term consequences. It strengthened Saudi-Iraqi relations, solidified Saudi Arabia’s position as a regional power broker, and contributed to the formation of the GCC. However, it also laid the groundwork for future tensions and conflicts within the Gulf region, as demonstrated by the GCC rift in 2017 and the subsequent isolation of Qatar.

Question 31

How did the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait change Saudi Arabia’s threat perception?

Answer 31

The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait transformed Saudi Arabia’s threat perception, as Iraq became an immediate military threat by moving troops to the Saudi border. Moreover, Iraq posed an ideological and domestic threat by overthrowing a fellow monarchy and calling for revolts within Saudi Arabia, aiming to destabilize the Saudi regime.

Question 32

What factors led Saudi Arabia to overcome its hesitations and form an open military alliance with the United States during the Gulf War?

Answer 32

The dire threat posed by Iraq prompted Saudi Arabia to set aside its concerns about a public alliance with the United States. Riyadh preferred keeping the US military ‘over the horizon’ to avoid domestic and regional backlash. However, the urgent need to counter the Iraqi threat led Saudi Arabia to risk public alienation and welcome US troops into the kingdom.

Question 33

How did the success of the US campaign in the Gulf War impact US-Saudi relations?

Answer 33

The success of the US campaign in ejecting Iraqi forces from Kuwait marked a new phase in US-Saudi relations. Riyadh became more willing to openly cooperate with the US military, allowing the use of Saudi bases for patrolling southern Iraq’s ‘no-fly’ zone. This cooperation sparked domestic opposition and contributed to grievances expressed by Osama bin Laden against the Saudi rulers.

Question 34

What factors contributed to the gradual improvement in Saudi-Iran relations after the first Gulf War?

Answer 34

Saudi-Iran relations slowly improved post-Gulf War due to changes in Iran, including the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, which reduced revolutionary fervor. The collapse of oil prices in the mid-1990s also brought Riyadh and Tehran closer as they cooperated within OPEC to stabilize prices. Despite remaining mutual suspicions, ideological hostility softened into more pragmatic ties in the 1990s.

Question 35

How did the Iraqi threat and US military presence in Saudi Arabia impact domestic politics and security?

Answer 35

The Iraqi threat and US military presence in Saudi Arabia fueled domestic political opposition, as seen in attacks on American facilities in Riyadh in 1995 and the Eastern Province in 1996. The presence of US troops stirred resentment among some segments of the Saudi population, contributing to broader tensions and challenges for the Saudi rulers in managing internal dissent.

Question 36

How did Saudi Arabia’s cooperation with the United States in the 2003 Iraq War differ from its cooperation during the Gulf War in 1990-91?

Answer 36

Saudi Arabia was much less willing to openly cooperate with the United States during the 2003 Iraq War compared to the Gulf War in 1990-91. The Saudis officially opposed the US war and did not permit US ground troops and air forces to use Saudi bases, except for some undisclosed exceptions. This reluctance stemmed from reduced perceived threat from Saddam Hussein and a dramatic anti-American sentiment among the Saudi public.

Question 37

What factors contributed to Saudi Arabia’s anti-American sentiment leading up to the 2003 Iraq War?

Answer 37

Several factors contributed to the significant anti-American sentiment in Saudi Arabia by 2003. These included the upsurge in Israeli-Palestinian violence in the second intifada, the US response to the 9/11 attacks, and the perception of US actions in Afghanistan as attacks on civilians. Public opinion polls reflected a high level of negativity towards the United States among Saudi respondents/

Question 38

How did Saudi leadership balance its cooperation with the United States in the 2003 Iraq War while dealing with anti-American sentiment domestically?

Answer 38

The Saudi leadership faced a challenging balancing act during the 2003 Iraq War, aiming to cooperate with the United States without alienating their anti-American public. They increased oil production to prevent price spikes, permitted air attacks on Iraq from Prince Sultan Airbase, and allowed US special forces access to a base near the Iraqi border. However, these efforts were mostly kept out of the public eye to avoid exacerbating anti-American sentiment.

Question 39

What was the impact of Saudi public opinion on Saudi Arabia’s stance and actions during the 2003 Iraq War?

Answer 39

Saudi public opinion, characterized by widespread anti-Americanism, significantly influenced Saudi Arabia’s stance and actions during the 2003 Iraq War. The leadership sought to distance itself publicly from US policy towards Iraq while still maintaining cooperation with Washington behind the scenes. This reflected the tightrope the Saudis walked between satisfying US security interests and responding to the sentiments of their own population.

Question 40

What has been the consistent strategic significance of the Gulf region for the United States since World War II?

Answer 40

The Gulf region’s strategic significance for the United States has been constant since World War II due to its oil resources. The US developed close political, economic, and military relations with countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia to safeguard its interests and counter potential Soviet moves in the region.

Question 41

How did US policy in the Gulf evolve in the 1970s, particularly in response to the oil revolution and the Arab-led oil embargo of 1973-74?

Answer 41

In the 1970s, US policy in the Gulf evolved in response to the oil revolution and the Arab-led oil embargo of 1973-74. The embargo, led by Saudi Arabia against the US due to its support for Israel in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, initially seemed to challenge the US “twin pillar” policy. However, it paradoxically strengthened this policy as the Gulf region’s importance for US foreign policy increased significantly. The US supported the military build-up of Iran and Saudi Arabia, even as they drastically increased their military spending with oil revenues.

Question 42

How did the US approach the Gulf region militarily in the 1970s given the constraints of public and Congressional opinion?

Answer 42

In the 1970s, the US approach to the Gulf region militarily was constrained by the lack of public and Congressional support for new foreign military obligations. Instead of taking on direct military responsibilities, the US supported the military build-up of its local allies, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia. This approach allowed the US to maintain strategic influence in the Gulf without significant direct military involvement.

Question 43

What were the key outcomes of US policy in the Gulf during the 1970s, especially in terms of military, economic, and political relations?

Answer 43

Key outcomes of US policy in the Gulf during the 1970s included intensified military, economic, and political relations with its Gulf partners, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia. The US supported their military build-up, which was funded by vast oil revenues. This period saw a strengthening of the “twin pillar” policy, despite challenges such as the oil revolution and the Arab-led oil embargo, ultimately solidifying US strategic interests in the Gulf region.

Question 44

What were the key events that led to the collapse of the US ‘twin pillar’ policy in the Gulf in 1979?

Answer 44

The collapse of the US ‘twin pillar’ policy in the Gulf in 1979 was triggered by the Islamic revolution in Iran, which overthrew the Shah and resulted in the establishment of the intensely anti-US Islamic Republic of Iran. This hostility was exemplified by the Iranian hostage crisis from 1979 to 1981, during which US diplomatic personnel were held captive. Concurrently, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, further destabilizing the region and oil markets.

Question 45

How did US policy in the Gulf change in response to the strategic challenges of the late 1970s and early 1980s?

Answer 45

In response to the strategic challenges of the late 1970s and early 1980s, the US reaffirmed its commitment to its remaining Gulf ally, Saudi Arabia, and increased military resources in the region. President Carter pledged to confront any hostile power seeking dominance in the region, and the Reagan administration significantly expanded the US military budget and operational plans for the Gulf through Central Command.

Question 46

What was the US approach to the Iran-Iraq War, and how did it evolve over time?

Answer 46

Initially, the US did not directly intervene in the Iran-Iraq War but provided support to Iraq after 1982, sharing intelligence, encouraging arms supplies, and extending economic credits. The Reagan administration engaged in secret diplomacy with Iran during the Iran-Contra scandal, attempting to secure the release of hostages and fund Nicaraguan opposition forces. The US also intervened militarily in the Gulf to protect oil tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987, engaging in naval confrontations with Iranian forces.

Question 47

What were the outcomes of US policy shifts in the Gulf during this period, particularly regarding military interventions and diplomatic efforts?

Answer 47

US policy shifts in the Gulf during this period resulted in increased military capabilities and interventions to protect Gulf allies and shipping lanes. The US supported Iraq indirectly in the Iran-Iraq War, engaged in secret diplomacy with Iran, and intervened militarily to counter Iranian attacks on oil tankers. These efforts aimed to maintain US influence in the region amidst complex geopolitical challenges and conflicts.

Question 48

How did the Gulf monarchies’ military cooperation with the United States evolve in the aftermath of the Iran-Iraq War and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait?

Answer 48

Following the Iran-Iraq War, Gulf monarchies began a new level of military cooperation with the United States, marked by increased access to facilities and ports for US forces. Kuwait opened its ports to US naval vessels, while Saudi Arabia granted expanded access to its facilities. This cooperation intensified after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, leading to the establishment of a long-term security alliance with the US, including the stationing of US forces in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE.

Question 49

How did US policy towards Iraq and Iran change after the Gulf War in 1990?

Answer 49

After the Gulf War in 1990, US policy towards Iraq shifted towards containment, backed by UN Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions on Iraq. This approach aimed to prevent Iraq from acquiring weapons of mass destruction and threatening US allies in the region. Concurrently, the US maintained unilateral containment efforts against Iran, which were largely ignored by the international community.

Question 50

What were the key factors that led to the US decision to go to war in Iraq in 2003, and what were the outcomes of this decision?

Answer 50

he US decision to go to war in Iraq in 2003 was driven by several factors, including the belief that Iraq posed a threat due to alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction, the desire to establish a pro-Western democracy in the region, and strategic interests in oil production and Arab-Israeli issues. However, the premise of Iraq possessing WMDs was later found to be unfounded, leading to criticism and challenges in building a stable post-war regime. The war resulted in an expensive and prolonged counter-insurgency effort that strained US resources and increased Iranian influence in the region.

Question 51

How did the events of 9/11 impact US relations with Iran and the Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia?

Answer 51

The events of 9/11 marked a turning point in US policy towards Iran and the Gulf countries. The Bush administration broadened its ‘war on terrorism’ to include states suspected of developing WMDs and supporting terrorism, naming Iran as part of an ‘axis of evil’. This led to increased confrontation and attempts to contain Iranian influence. Meanwhile, US-Saudi relations faced challenges due to perceptions of Saudi Arabia’s role in supporting Islamic groups and anti-American sentiment. Despite initial tensions, Washington eventually returned to close relations with Saudi Arabia, recognizing its importance to US interests, especially in the context of rising oil prices after 2003.

Question 52

What were the key factors and implications of the US withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 regarding the regional power dynamics in the Gulf?

Answer 52

Factors: The US withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 marked the end of a prolonged military presence that aimed to establish a hegemonic position in the region. This decision was influenced by domestic pressures in the US, changing regional dynamics, and the negotiation of a status of forces agreement with the Iraqi government.
Implications: It symbolized a shift in power dynamics, allowing local states like Iran and Saudi Arabia to play larger roles. The Saudi-Iranian rivalry intensified, impacting neighboring Arab states’ domestic politics and exacerbating sectarian tensions.

Question 53

How did the Saudi-Iranian rivalry evolve after the US withdrawal from Iraq, and what were its impacts on the domestic politics of neighboring Arab states?

Answer 53

After the US withdrawal, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran intensified, with both states supporting local allies in weak Arab states like Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and Yemen.
This rivalry grew in intensity as the US presence diminished, contributing to sectarian tensions in the Middle East and shaping regional power struggles.

Question 54

How did the Arab uprisings in 2010-2011 affect the foreign policies and security strategies of the Gulf monarchies, particularly in relation to Iran and the United States?

Answer 54

The Arab uprisings led to a mixed response from Gulf monarchies, including increased largesse, modest political reforms, and enhanced surveillance to manage dissent.
The fall of staunch US ally Mubarak in Egypt prompted a more proactive approach in foreign policies by a new generation of rulers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Question 55

What were the major international concerns and developments in the Gulf region following the US withdrawal from Iraq, focusing on issues like the Iranian nuclear program and diplomatic efforts?

Answer 55

The major international focus post-US withdrawal was the Iranian nuclear issue. Western powers, including the US and EU, increased economic pressures on Iran, leading to negotiations for a nuclear deal.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 was hailed as a diplomatic triumph but faced internal resistance in the US and Iran, impacting regional dynamics.

Question 56

How did the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran’s nuclear program come into existence, and what were the reactions to it from various stakeholders, including the US, Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia?

Answer 56

The JCPOA was a result of progressive economic pressures on Iran and diplomatic negotiations involving major world powers.
It faced opposition from some domestic political factions in the US and Iran, with Israel and Saudi Arabia initially opposed but later seeing the US withdrawal from the agreement as a diplomatic success.

Question 57

What role did economic pressures, regional security dynamics, and domestic politics play in shaping the responses and strategies of Gulf states towards the evolving situation in the region after the US withdrawal from Iraq?

Answer 57

Economic pressures, regional security concerns, and domestic politics influenced Gulf states’ responses to post-withdrawal challenges, shaping their strategies towards Iran, the US, and regional stability.

Question 58

How did the US policy shift from the Obama administration’s diplomatic engagement with Iran to the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the JCPOA impact regional stability and the balance of power in the Gulf?

Answer 58

The shift from Obama’s engagement with Iran to Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA impacted regional stability and the Gulf balance of power. It led to increased tensions, especially between the US, Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, with differing views on regional security and nuclear proliferation.

Question 59

What were the primary concerns of Saudi Arabia and Israel regarding the negotiations between global powers and Iran?

Answer 59

Both Saudi Arabia and Israel were concerned about an expanded Iranian role in the region following the lifting of economic sanctions. They were wary of Iran’s potential influence in regional conflicts, especially after Syria’s descent into civil war and increased instability in Iraq.

Question 60

How did Saudi Arabia’s stance change under King Salman and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s leadership?

Answer 60

Saudi Arabia adopted a more assertive stance, feeling the need to protect its interests independently of the United States. Initiatives included military involvement in Yemen against Houthi rebels perceived as backed by Iran and increased engagement in the Syrian civil war.

Question 61

What is the nature of the Saudi-Iran rivalry, and how is it presented in regional politics?

Answer 61

The Saudi-Iran rivalry, rooted in historical tensions, is becoming crucial for regional and international politics, often presented in sectarian terms that resonate with public opinions on both sides. This rivalry has the potential to escalate into an identity-based conflict, threatening regional stability and balance of power.

Question 62

How has the global oil market impacted the dynamics of the Saudi-Iran rivalry?

Answer 62

Lower oil prices due to hydraulic fracturing (fracking) have different impacts on regional powers, with Saudi Arabia better equipped to withstand economic challenges than Iran, Russia, or Venezuela. This economic factor adds tension to the Saudi-Iran rivalry and influences their strategic calculations.

Question 63

What role did the United States play in Gulf politics, and how has it evolved over time?

Answer 63

Gulf politics transitioned from regional states setting the agenda to increased US involvement, especially after the Gulf War in 1990–91 and the subsequent ‘war on terrorism’ post-9/11. The invasion of Iraq reflected ambitious US efforts to reshape regional dynamics and domestic politics but faced challenges in consolidating a pro-American regime in Iraq.

Question 64

With the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq, what entities have regained prominence as drivers of Gulf international politics?

Answer 64

Local powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran have regained prominence as drivers of Gulf international politics. The Saudi-Iran rivalry, now extending beyond the Gulf, shapes regional dynamics but is unlikely to escalate into direct armed conflict, posing challenges for regional stability and diplomacy.

Question 65

How has the United States’ approach to the Middle East evolved in recent years, particularly under the Trump administration?

Answer 65

The United States has increasingly disengaged from direct involvement in the Middle East, aligning with Obama’s policy of increased disengagement despite Trump’s withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal. This shift has led the US towards a more indirect role in shaping regional politics.

Question 66

What opportunities have emerged for other global actors due to the US disengagement from the Middle East?

Answer 66

Russia and China, among other powerful outside actors, have increased their presence in the region and positioned themselves as alternative partners and patrons. This shift has created major uncertainties and changes in behavior among regional powers.

Question 67

How have solvent authoritarian regimes like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar responded to the perceived change in external actors’ roles?

Answer 67

These regimes have adopted assertive regional policies to bolster their influence and ensure regime survival at the domestic level. They have engaged in aggressive military interventions, established military bases in strategic locations, and adopted harsh policies against perceived rivals.

Question 68

How does role theory in foreign policy analysis explain the change in behavior among regional actors in response to the US disengagement?

Answer 68

Role theory suggests that changes in the role of external actors (such as the US) can prompt regional actors to change their roles at the regional level. The perceived change in the US role in the Middle East has led to significant changes in national role conceptions and behavior among regional actors.

Question 69

What was the traditional role of the United States in the Middle East, and how did it change under the Obama administration?

Answer 69

Traditionally, the US played the role of a ‘protector,’ ‘security and stability guarantor,’ and ‘promoter of democracy’ in the Middle East. Under Obama, there was a shift towards disengagement, with the belief that regional problems should be addressed by regional actors.

Question 70

How did the US disengagement from the Middle East affect regional dynamics and the behavior of regional powers?

Answer 70

The US disengagement led to a perceived vacuum in the region, causing regional powers like Gulf countries to become more assertive and independent in ensuring their security and stability. This change in behavior included increased military spending and a reluctance to rely solely on US support.