Iran, Iraq, and the Gulf Wars Flashcards
What are the significant challenges facing Joe Biden as he assumes office, particularly in relation to US-Gulf relations?
Biden faces challenges such as the unresolved rift within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), ongoing US-Saudi relations amid the Yemen war, next steps regarding the Iran nuclear deal, and the evolving strategic landscape post-UAE and Bahrain normalization with Israel.
How does the approach of the Biden Administration differ from that of the Trump presidency regarding institutional capacity and key personnel appointments?
Biden’s administration emphasizes institutional capacity over personalized ties, aiming for proper appointments, including ambassadors, at all levels of government. This approach contrasts with the personalized style of decision-making seen during the Trump presidency.
What is the status of the Gulf crisis, particularly the blockade of Qatar, and how does it relate to the Trump administration’s approach?
The Gulf crisis, including the blockade of Qatar, reflects the transactional approach of the Trump White House. Biden’s team will inherit this challenge, which has roots in the early days of the Trump presidency and may require a nuanced approach for resolution.
How does the Biden team plan to address US-Saudi relations and the ongoing Yemen war?
The Biden team is expected to review the US-Saudi relationship and seek reforms rather than rupture. They may encourage Saudi Arabia to end the rift with Qatar, cease military intervention in Yemen, and engage in structured regional dialogue, presenting an opportunity for positive changes in regional dynamics.
What are the prospects for the Iran nuclear deal under the Biden Administration?
The Biden Administration plans to rejoin the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and negotiate a follow-on agreement addressing ongoing concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and behavior in the region. However, challenges such as Iran’s domestic politics and upcoming elections may complicate this process.
How has the strategic landscape in the Middle East changed with the normalization agreements between Israel and Gulf states?
The normalization agreements have reshaped regional alliances and dynamics. The Biden team will navigate these changes while also addressing potential confrontations related to the Iran nuclear deal and deciding on the future of initiatives like the Middle East Strategic Alliance set up under the Trump administration.
What significant development occurred on January 5, 2021, regarding the Qatar crisis and GCC politics?
The formal beginning of the end of the Qatar crisis took place during the 41st GCC Summit in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, where leaders signed a ‘security and stability’ agreement, marking a move beyond the acrimony and tensions that had persisted since 2017.
What were the key aspects of the agreement reached during the GCC Summit?
The agreement involved opening air, land, and sea routes to Qatar by the Quartet states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain) in exchange for Qatar rescinding lawsuits against these countries at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The parties also agreed to refrain from negative media coverage and work towards mending the rift within the GCC.
What were the underlying causes of the Qatar blockade, and how did Qatar respond during the crisis?
The blockade stemmed from charges against Qatar, including support for regional Islamist groups, close ties with Turkey and Iran, and non-conformity to pressure from Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. Qatar responded by leveraging its resources for political and logistical support from Ankara, developing indigenous sectors, and strengthening national identity.
How did the crisis originate, and what were the attempts at resolution leading up to the 2021 GCC Summit?
The crisis originated partly from Qatar’s support for the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Al Jazeera’s media coverage during the Arab Spring. Attempts at resolution began with the Riyadh agreement in 2014 but tensions persisted, culminating in the 2017 blockade. Mediation efforts by Kuwait and involvement from the Trump administration eventually led to the 2021 reconciliation.
What factors contributed to the reconciliation efforts, and what role did regional dynamics play in the resolution?
Factors such as Saudi Arabia’s agenda for reconciliation, improvement of international image post-Khashoggi, addressing the Yemen stalemate, and preparing for Biden’s administration’s approach towards Iran played crucial roles. GCC unity was seen as essential for a balanced regional approach and strong relations with Washington under Biden’s presidency.
What are the potential challenges and unresolved issues despite the agreement reached at the GCC Summit?
The resolution pathway may not address deeper issues like Qatar’s ties with Tehran and Ankara or its support for political Islamist groups. The conflict resolution process is expected to continue in bilateral meetings, raising questions about potential shifts in Qatar’s regional alliances and policies.
