The economic environment for business Flashcards
The principal objectives of macroeconomic policy will be to achieve the
following:
full employment of resources
price stability (low inflation)
economic growth
balance of payments equilibrium
an appropriate distribution of income and wealth.
Macroeconomic policy is
the management of the economy by
government in such a way as to influence the performance and behaviour
of the economy as a whole
The objectives of macroeconomic policy
The full employment of resources applies in particular to the labour
force. The aim is both full and stable employment.
Price stability means little or no inflation putting upward pressure on
prices.
Economic growth is measured by changes in national income from one
year to the next and is important for improving living standards.
The balance of payments relates to the ratio of imports to exports. A
payment surplus would mean the value of exports exceeds that of
imports. A payment deficit would occur where imports exceed exports.
What is considered an appropriate distribution of income and wealth
will depend upon the prevailing political view at the time
Potential for conflict
Both economic theory and the experience of managing the economy
suggest that the simultaneous achievement of all macroeconomic
objectives may be extremely difficult. Two examples of possible conflict
may be cited here.
There may be conflict between full employment and price stability. It is
suggested that inflation and employment are inversely related. The
achievement of full employment may therefore lead to excessive
inflation through an excess level of aggregate demand in the economy.
Rapid economic growth may, in the short-term at least, have damaging
consequences for the balance of payments since rapidly rising incomes
may lead to a rising level of imports.
Government reputation and business confidence will both be damaged
if the government is seen to be pursuing policy targets that are widely
regarded as incompatible.
Policy objectives may conflict and hence governments have to consider
trade-offs between objectives. The identification of targets for policy
should reflect this
Aggregate Demand (AD) is
the total demand for goods and services in
the economy
Exchange rates
Macroeconomic policy may involve changes in exchange rates. This
may have the effect of raising the domestic price of imported goods.
Most businesses use some imported goods in the production process;
hence this leads to a rise in production costs
Taxation
Fiscal policy involves the use of taxation: changes in tax rates or the
structure of taxation will affect businesses, e.g. a change in the
employers’ national insurance contribution (NIC) will have a direct
effect on labour costs for all businesses. Changes in indirect taxes (e.g.
a rise in sales tax or excise duties) will either have to be absorbed or
the business will have to attempt to pass on the tax to its customers
Interest rates
Monetary policy involves changes in interest rates. These changes will
directly affect firms in two ways:
Costs of servicing debts will change, especially for highly-geared
firms.
The viability of investment will be affected since all models of
investment appraisal include the rate of interest as one, if not the
main, variable
Monetary policy is concerned with influencing the overall monetary
conditions in the economy in particular:
the volume of money in circulation – the money supply
the price of money – interest rates.
The choice of targets
A fundamental problem of monetary policy concerns the choice of
variable to operate on. The ultimate objective of monetary policy is to
influence some important variable in the economy – the level of
demand, the rate of inflation, the exchange rate for the currency, etc.
However, monetary policy has to do this by targeting some
intermediate variable which, it is believed, influences, in some
predictable way, the ultimate object of the policy
Monetary policy - The broad choice here is between targeting the stock of money or the
rate of interest:
The volume of money in circulation. The stock of money in the
economy (the ‘money supply’) is believed to have important
effects on the volume of expenditure in the economy. This in turn
may influence the level of output in the economy or the level of
prices.
The price of money. The price of money is the rate of interest. If
governments wish to influence the amount of money held in the
economy or the demand for credit, they may attempt to influence
the level of interest rates
Interest rate smoothing
Interest rate smoothing is the policy of some central banks to move
official interest rates in a sequence of relatively small steps in the same
direction, rather than waiting until making a single larger change
Interest smoothing - This is usually for the following reasons:
economic (e.g. to avoid instability and the need for reversals in
policy) and
political (e.g. higher rates are broken to the electorate gently)
Inflation may be:
demand-pull inflation – excess demand
cost-push inflation – high production costs
The cost of finance.
Any restrictions on the stock of money, or
restrictions on credit, will raise the cost of borrowing, making fewer
investment projects worthwhile and discouraging expansion by
companies. Also, any increase in the level of general interest rates will
increase shareholders’ required rates of return so unless companies
can increase their return, share prices will fall as interest rates rise.
Thus, in times of ‘tight’ money and high interest rates, organisations are
less likely to borrow money and will probably contract rather than
expand operations
Demand-pull inflation might occur when
excess aggregate monetary
demand in the economy and hence demand for particular goods and
services enable companies to raise prices and expand profit margins
Cost-push inflation will occur when
there are increases in production
costs independent of the state of demand, e.g. rising raw material costs
or rising labour costs. The initial effect is to reduce profit margins and
the extent to which these can be restored depends on the ability of
companies to pass on cost increases as price increases for customers
Fiscal policy is the
manipulation of the government budget in order to
influence the level of aggregate demand and therefore the level of activity
in the economy. It covers:
government spending
taxation
government borrowing
public expenditure =
taxes raised + government borrowing
(+ sundry other income)
taxation may have undesirable economic
consequences. Those most frequently cited are as follows:
Personal disincentives to work and effort: this may be related
mainly to the form of taxation, e.g. progressive income tax (earn
more, pay more), rather than the overall level of taxation.
Discouragement to business, especially the disincentive to invest
and engage in research and development (R&D), which results
from high business taxation.
Disincentive to foreign investment: multinational firms may be
dissuaded from investing in economies with high tax regimes.
A reduction in tax revenue may occur if taxpayers are dissuaded
from undertaking extra income-generating work and are
encouraged to seek tax-avoidance schemes
Government borrowing
Broadly the government can undertake two types of borrowing:
It can borrow directly or indirectly from the public by issuing relatively
illiquid debt. This includes National Savings certificates, premium
bonds, and long-term government bonds. This is referred to as ‘funding’
the debt.
A governmenrt can borrow from the banking system by
issuing relatively liquid debt
such as Treasury bills. This is referred to as ‘unfunded’ debt.
A government can borrow by issuing
Long-term government bonds (gilts) are issued for long-term financing
requirements, whereas Treasury bills are issued to fund short-term
cash flow requirements
Crowding out
It is suggested that fiscal policy can lead to ‘financial crowding out’,
whereby government borrowing leads to a fall in private investment.
This occurs because increased borrowing leads to higher interest rates by creating a greater demand for money and loanable funds and hence
a higher ‘price’.
The private sector, which is sensitive to interest rates, will then reduce
investment due to a lower rate of return. This is the investment that is
crowded out. The weakening of fixed investment and other interest-
sensitive expenditure counteracts the economy boosting benefits of
government spending. More importantly, a fall in fixed investment by
business can hurt long-term economic growth.
Doubts exist over the likely size of any crowding out effect of
government borrowing on other borrowers but a very large PSNCR may
well lead to a fall in private investment.
However, when the economy is depressed, and there is not much new
private sector investment, government spending programmes could
help to give a boost to the economy