The Demographic Transition Model

Question 1

What does the DTM show?

Answer 1

The DTM shows how the population of a country changes over time trough 5 stages. The model shows changes in birth, death rate and total population.

Question 2

Describe Stage 1.

Answer 2

Stage 1 is high fluctuating. A period of high birth rate and high death rate, both of which fluctuate. Population growth is small, but stable. Examples of places in stage 1 are Tribes in the Brazilian rainforest.

Question 3

What are the reasons for high birth rate in stage 1?

Answer 3

The birth rate is high because of limited birth control, family planning and poor education. Its also high because of high infant mortality rates, which encourages women to have more children in order to replace those who have died as children are a future source of income. In many cultures children are a sign of fertility and some religions also encourage large families. The estimated birth rate is 35 per 1000.

Question 4

What are the reasons for high death rate in stage 1?

Answer 4

The death rate is high and the life expectancy is low because of many contributing reasons. Their is a high incidence of disease due to poor nutrition and famine. This can lead to starvation and subsequently death. The levels of hygiene and health facilities are also undeveloped and inadequate. The estimated death rate is also 35 per 1000.

Question 5

Describe Stage 2.

Answer 5

Stage 2 is early expanding. A period of high birth rate but falling death rate. The population begins to expand rapidly. Examples of countries in this stage are Nepal and Afghanistan.

Question 6

What are the reasons for a rapidly falling death rate in stage 2?

Answer 6

An improvement in healthcare, nutrition and medical provision reduce the death rate in stage 2. There is also lower child mortality. The estimated death rate is 15 per 1000.

Question 7

Why does the birth rate remain high in stage 2?

Answer 7

There is still little family planning, birth control and education to women. Labour reasons are a significant reason the birth rate remain high because children are seen as socio-economic assets as all members of the family have to work, meaning a bigger family the bigger the farm- helping to bring more food and money in. The estimated birth rate remains at 35 per 1000.

Question 8

Describe stage 3.

Answer 8

Stage 3 is late expanding. A period of falling birth rate and continuing decrease in death rate meaning the population growth slows down but continues to increase steadily. An example is Egypt.

Question 9

What are the reasons for a decreasing birth rate in stage 3?

Answer 9

There is a change in socioeconomic conditions in stage 3 countries as economy moves towards manufacturing meaning fewer children are needed to work on farms, subsequently meaning the preference for smaller families increases as having a larger family is no longer as advantageous. A greater education is offered to women as well as birth control and the availability of family planning systems, often supported by the government. As well as a change in social trends and fashion, a rise in materialism and increased personal wealth; the compulsory schooling makes the rearing of children more expensive. Lastly there is lower infant mortality rate so the need to have lots of children is no longer necessary. The estimated birth rate is now 13 per 1000.

Question 10

Describe stage 4.

Answer 10

Stage 4 is low fluctuating. A period of both low birth rate and low death rate, both of which fluctuate. Population growth remains stable but high with a slow growth rate and fertility rate continues to fall. In stage 4 there are significant changes in personal lifestyles, more women in the workforce, higher personal incomes and more leisure interests. Examples are developed countries such as Europe and the USA.

Question 11

Why does birth rate stay low in stage 4?

Answer 11

There is an increased demand for luxuries such as holidays and material possessions, resulting in less money available for having children and secondly less need as the change in personal lifestyles means children do not have to work.

Question 12

Describe stage 5.

Answer 12

Decline. A later period where the death rate slightly exceeds the birth rate, This causes population decline. This stage has only been recognised in recent years in some western countries e.g. Japan. (Birth rate < death rate)

Question 13

What are the reasons for a decrease in birth rate in stage 5?

Answer 13

There is a rise in indivualism and emancipation of women in the labour market- there is a greater finical independence of women. There is an increase of the concept of childlessness, which can be explained by the increase in same sex relationships or the cost of child bearing and dependent elderly relatives (leaving no time for having children)

Question 14

Explain the death rate in stage 5.

Answer 14

The death rate can either remain steady or slightly increase due to the ageing population.

Question 15

What stage are most MEDC’s in?

Answer 15

Stages 4-5 as they have low birth and death rates, long life expectancies and slow population growth. They have already been through stages 1,2 and 3. In stages 2 and 3 their rapid population growth was accompanied by industrial growth, farming improvements and increasing wealth. This is where they changed from LEDC’s to MEDC’s.

Question 16

What are the characteristics of MEDC’s in stage 5?

Answer 16

MEDC’s in stage 5 e.g. Japan, Italy and Germany have a lower birth rate than death, causing the death rate to not only shrink but also become ageing as more people are living longer.

Question 17

What problems can being in stage 5 cause for a country?

Answer 17

There are too few children the replace the current ageing workforce meaning there will not be enough people to carry out the work, meaning the economy will slow down o stop growing. A smaller population also means a reduction in spending, adding to the economies decrease or possible stall. There are also fewer tax payers so less money for services, made worse by the increasing cost of services for the elderly. A greying population means more money is needed for pensions and health services such as carers.

Question 18

What stages are LEDC’s mainly in?

Answer 18

Stages 2-3.
An example of an LEDC in stage 2 is Afghanistan. Lots of countries like Kenya and Bangladesh entered stage 2 in the 1950’s. Improvement in health care and sanitation lead to a reduced death rate, while birth rate stayed high. Many of these countries become overpopulated as they don’t have the money or resources to cope with the expanding population.
An example of an LEDC in stage 3 is India. Some former LEDC’s have moved into stage 3 in the last few decades for example NIC’s like Malaysia and Taiwan. The death rate is still falling, leading to increasing populations. Some governments have introduced policies to reduce birth rate and prevent overpopulation e.g. one child policies.

Question 19

Does the UK’s demographic history match the DTM?

Answer 19

Yes.

Question 20

Summarise the UK when it was in stage 1 of the DTM.

Answer 20

During medieval times both birth rate and death rates in the UK were high, birth being slightly higher (35/1000) this resulted in a slow rate of natural increase. The death rate varied considerably due to the epidemic of Black Death (1348), killing one third of the population, the Great Plague of 1655 and wars. This high death rate cancelled out the high birth rate. There was an increase in mortality between 1720-40 due to the availability of cheap gin. This ended in 1751 because of Gin tax.

Question 21

Summarise the UK in stage 2.

Answer 21

In 1760- 1880 the population grew very quickly, being 5 times bigger by 1880 (6 million to 30 million) because of improvements in farming and medicine reduced starvation and disease, so death rate fell as birth rate remained high and the economy grew quickly. The rapid growth was particularly apparent in urban populations.

Question 22

Summarise the UK in stage 3.

Answer 22

In 1880-1940, the population was still growing however at a slower rate. By 1941 the population was at approximately 47 million. The birth rate fell as birth control improved and became more commonly used making the relationship between desired family size and achieved family size strong. By 1940, birth rate had fallen to 14 per 1000 (with the exception of the post war baby boom 60’s-80’s) also achieved by the fact the importance of women in the employment structure had risen. Death rate, with the exception of World War 1 continued to fall due to improvement in nutrition for example cheap imports such as american wheat and fruit from Australia and medicine and hygiene improvement such as the recognition of the provision of clean piped water, leading to a fall in diarrhoea diseases and typhoid.

Question 23

Summarise the UK in stage 4.

Answer 23

The UK from 1940 to today was in stage 4 after progressing to this stage in 1940. Our total population growth has slowed down, at a total of 56 million by 1981. Death rate was low, except world war 2, and birth rate was also low, except the baby boomers.

Question 24

Summarise the UK in stage 5.

Answer 24

The UK’s current population consists of its death rate being almost identical to its birth. The population is currently ageing as pensioners outnumber the children and by 2030, the elderly will account for a quarter of the UK’s population. The population could begin to decline if the birth rate drops below the death rate because there are few too young people, or if death rate becomes larger than birth rate because the large population of elderly will die of old age.

Question 25

What makes the DTM useful?

Answer 25

1. The DTM gives a good generalised picture of how population changes over time, the timescales are flexible and thus it is easy to understand.
2. It enables comparisons to be made demographically between countries, as from background knowledge you can analyse what stage of the DTM a country is in.
3. You can forecast how a population may change as it provides a starting point for the study of demographic change over time, this can help governments decide on policies such as one child limits and immigration laws.
4. The DTM is also universal in concept as it can be applied to all countries in the world.

Question 26

What are the limitations of the DTM.

Answer 26

1. The model is Eurocentric as the original data used to create the DTM was from richer countries such as Europe, Japan and the USA. This means the model assumes all countries will follow the European sequence of socioeconomic changes therefore the model is not valid worldwide.
2. The original data did not include stage 5, which has been added only because some countries have moved out of stage 4, as they have socially and economically progressed further.
3. The DTM does not take into account to the education and the role of women separately, which are both important in affecting the birth rate e.g. increased higher education means a rely in having a family.
4. The population in countries with different contraception isn’t taken into account, which is important as these places will having changing population for different reasons for example catholic church condemns contraception.
5. Extreme poverty and low levels of development may cause a lack of population growth and prevent LEDC’s from passing through all the stages.
6. Because timings are so flexible, the DTM can’t predict when a country will progress to a stage or how long it will last there.
7. It does not consider the impact of migration yet international migration can have a large effect on population change.
8. The role of the government such as the introduction of population control policies e.g. France and China, Infectious diseases e.g. HIV/Aids in Nigeria and Civil war e.g. Rwanda are also not taken into account.