Test #2 Flashcards
Intelligence analysis goal
obtain new insights about foreign actions, intentions and capabilities
to help the policymaker increase benefit from intelligence collection
Reqs for analysis
Requires substantive knowledge and knowledge of US policy issues
What analysis does to specific pieces of information.
Putting specific pieces of information in a broader context to highlight implications:
For US interests
For policy official’s specific responsibilities
How analysis connects information.
Analysis builds bridge between raw intelligence and national security official
3 all source analysis centers
CIA, DIA, INR (State)
Specialized analysis
NGA, DOE labs, Military service units
The analyst is oriented toward
substantive issues and expertise
Usually strong interest in area of specialization – focus on an “account
The analyst has a mind to
solving problems, puzzles
curious
skepticism
Types of analytic products
Basic intelligence
Current intelligence
Ad hoc products
Can be short-term or in-depth
Estimates
In all cases, written products and briefings
Analytic Process
What are the steps
Identifying the intelligence question Looking for information Evaluating information Analyzing information Producing a finished intelligence report
- Identifying the intelligence question
Not the same as a broad topic
Focus is real-world issues faced by policymakers
- example
Topic:
“Country X military development”
Intel question:
“What new weapons systems of Country X could seriously threaten US forces in 3 - 5 years?”
- Intel question origins
Standing requirements
Questions developed by IC agencies
Specific questions raised by policymakers (ad hoc requirements)
- Developing hypotheses
Usually an early part of analytic process
Once question understood, basic concept of answer developed
Might be largely “data-driven”
Analyst guided solely by available data
But preconceptions usually at work
E.g., analysts’ expertise, past experience
Presents major analysis benefits, pitfalls
- Assessing what is already known
Information held by analyst’s agency and by IC generally
Data collections, earlier finished products
Might require lots of research
In some cases, finished report done with information at hand
- Seeking new information
Requesting new collection
Need understanding of collection systems
New information from open sources
Largely analyst’s responsibility
- Selecting information
Selecting relevant info
Requires knowledge of the intelligence question
- The wheat-from-chaff problem
selecting info
“The straw in the haystack”
“Volume problem
- Evaluating new information
Have to look at information critically
Don’t take at face value
Is it really relevant?
How reliable is it?
Source access, reliability, track record
4.
Step 4:Analyzing the information
- Figuring out what is going on
new information together with existing data, knowledge
How significant is the new information?
What is new, changed, or the same
- Identifying:
Trends, relationships
Patterns in activity; linkages
Discontinuities
Change in existing trend, pattern, or situation
Anomalies
Something at odds with an established pattern, situation, or relationship
Example: trends
A growing number of governments are expecting increased flexibility from Maricopa at the next round of trade negotiations next month
Example: discontinuities
Country Y has dropped its prohibition against allowing terrorist organizations to seek sanctuary within its borders
Example: anomalies
Country X has announced a practice mobilization of its armed forces, but instead of going through their normal procedures, several key units are heading toward the border of Country Y
- Interpreting what is going on
Explaining “why” something happening
Foreign motivations, objectives behind specific actions or trends
Why trends, relationships, discontinuities occurring
Estimating the future direction
“Forecasts,” not “predictions”
Possible outcomes
Interpreting with best possible judgement
based on available information
Despite lots of data . . .
. . . relevant, reliable information is often in short supply
Have to use what is available at the time
Analyst expertise is key factor
Step 5
Identifying meaning for policy
5 Policy relevance
What does current situation–and its possible future trajectory–mean for US interests, objectives?
What potential opportunities, difficulties or dangers does the US face?
5 Finished products ideally:
brief
conclusions first then supporting argument
How we know what we know – and don’t know
facts to support conclusions
clarity, objectively
pitfal using information
Noise, too much info.
uncertainty,
focusing on past events
not getting beyond the data, forests and trees,
Not looking at data or sources critcally
Pitfall. Mindsets.
Mental shortcuts, concepts.
a psychological analogy.
pitfall mindset stuck
Not looking for alternative explanations
Sticking with a hypothesis that seems to fit
Failure to develop multiple “models”
Ignoring/rejecting information
Looking for/accepting only information that supports favored hypothesis
Difficulty in keeping information in view
Especially if it doesn’t fit with favored explanation
pitfall mindsets alot of different
Mirror imaging Assuming others think like us Stereotypes Seeing the future as an extension of the past “They’ve always done it this way.” Defending past analytic positions Group think
pitfall clarity
the question.
assumption vs. fact.
fact and analytic assertions.
noting when a previous analytic position has changed.
“Linchpin” analysis
pitfall. Making key assumptions and knowledge clear.
Alternative hypotheses
pitfall. Creating, evaluating several explanations
Scenarios
pitfall. Looking at several possible outcomes or trends
Alternative/ “competitive” analysis
pitfall. “Contrarian” analysis by design
Linchpin analysis example
“Despite yesterday’s announcement that Maricopa is willing to listen to Pima’s concessions, we judge that war is still likely.”
“This is based on our key assumption that because of a variety of economic pressures, Maricopa is determined to attack Pima no matter what.”
Example – Use of scenarios
World oil supplies could tighten further in coming months.
a) World oil demand rises at current high rate, no supply disruptions
b) World oil demand rises at current high rate, with major supply disruption
c) World oil demand stops rising
drafting
Stating bottom line (“key judgments”) at the beginning.
Keep paper concise.
clear factual argument.
Work pace – crisis support
Short deadlines during crises
Much care required against analytic mistakes
Special task forces often created
Within agencies and across agencies
Analysts might work temporarily outside their major areas of expertise
Work pace: short-term intelligence
Increased importance of daily and ad hoc intelligence products
Daily (“current”) intelligence can drive much of analyst’s day
Major importance for entire Intelligence Community of key daily briefings
Many other daily, weekly products
Work pace: deadlines
Timely delivery is key
“Perfection” vs. getting it there when customer needs it
Increased focus on short-fuse products
Can put pressure on all stages of the analytic process
Top intelligence recipients White House
President Vice President National Security Advisor Deputy National Security Advisor Chief of Staff They make (or help make) final decisions -- they get whatever support they need