Test 1 International Security Flashcards
What are the two types of theories?
Causal and Constitutive
Explain Causal theory
A must be distinct from B and temporally precede the existence of B
Explain Constitutive theory
A and B are not distinct from one another. They also do not exist at different moments in time.
Example: The English language doesn’t cause a British identity, instead it is part of that identity and helps to constitute it along with other things like nationalism
What is an interstate war
Advancing state political interests through fighting between centralized military organizations
What is a civil war
Insurgent groups within states fight coercive organizations supporting the state
What is a revolutionary war
Involve guerillas attempting to overthrow a state
What is a irregular war
Fighting between numerous state and nonstate actors, often in an authoritarian vacuum
What are the domestic consequences of war
Strengthening administrative machinery of the state, enlarging coercive force, change in domestic political order, and possible fall of the government
What are the international consequences of war
Destruction of states, new boundaries, and international political order change
Break apart the Bargaining Model of War
Division of disputed issue (X), Probability of military victory (P), and C (Cost of war)
Explain interactions between Russia and Germany prior to the war
Russia’s mobilization, while only precautionary, was seen by Germany as aggressive. It sent an ultimatum to the Russian to cease mobilization but after demands were ignored, it launched a preventive war so the Russian would not demand more concessions with its larger military (bargaining failure / commitment problem). This is also a sunk cost. Russia’s military advances before its mobilization were also concerning and demonstrated the security dilemma. The Germans were convinced that Russia was planning on going to war (private information), demonstrating the effectiveness of Russia’s sunk cost.
Explain Germany’s interests
Germany did not believe Russian promises of reducing influence in the Balkans. Wanted to take Baltics from Russia because had ethnic Germans
Describe Serbia and Bosnia’s relationship
Serbs want to integrate Bosnia → tension between Russia and Austria-Hungary
Describe Austria-Hungary and Bosnia’s relationship
Austria-Hungary seizes Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908 and made plans to occupy half of Serbia to stop Serbian factions from launching terrorist attacks in Bosnia, but Russians who wanted an independent Serbia that is aligned with Russia
Describe relationship with Britain and Germany
Britain was concerned that German occupation of Belgium would shift the balance of power by offering access to ports (GBR-GER naval competition) and an avenue to attack France.
When does Britain mobilize
Britain mobilizes after Russian and Germany.
How did France get involved in the conflict
Throughout the July crisis, France affirmed its alliance obligations to Russia and encouraged Russia to stand firm. The French government saw this latest manifestation of longstanding Balkan disputes as a device to activate Russian participation in a war against Germany and offset the security threat to France posed by the growth of the German army.
What were Austria-Hungary’s interests?
Bosnia and stopping Serbia
What was Germany’s interest
Naval expansion through Belgium, Back Austria-Hungary
What was Austria-Hungary’s Military capabilities?
Had the German support through Blank Check
What was the military capability of Germany
Navy, Schlieffen plan, Moltke plan
What is the schlieffen plan
The Schlieffen Plan was a military strategy developed by Germany prior to World War I, which aimed to quickly defeat France by avoiding their strong border defenses through a surprise attack via Belgium, while holding off Russia on the Eastern Front.
What was the Moltke plan
The Moltke Plan was a modified version of the Schlieffen Plan that Germany implemented during World War I, which shifted troops from the right wing to the left wing of the army and led to a more defensive approach.
What commitment problem did the Austria-Hungarians have
Commitment not to further expand into Balkans, but couldn’t commit to the peace treaty at end of Balkans war
What commitment problem did Germany have
if Austria Hungary fights then Germany fights
What commitment did the Ottomans have?
Cant commit to territorial boundaries in Balkans
What domestic politics in Austria-Hungary
Dual monarchy, Balkin question, and ethnic strife
What domestic politics did Germany have
Public did not want war
What domestic politics did Ottomans have
Food and economy crisis
What interests did Russia have
Warm water port (Slavic/Balkan), and growth in Europe
What were the interests of France
Not to be invaded, and support Russia
What were the interests of the UK
Keep Germany out of Belgium, major power in Europe
What were the interests of the USA
Prewar: Stop the war –> During war: Support triple entente
What were the interests of Serbia
Wanted Bosnia, not to get colonized
How did private info impact Russia
Bad private info resulted in slow mobilization (cost signal)
What was the commitment problem of France
If Russia goes to war, France goes to war
UK Commitment problem
No one was sure if UK would help in the case of war
What was the commitment problem between Serbia and Austria-Hungary
Austria Hungary did not trust Serbia to crack down on anarchist groups
How did private information impact Serbia
Serbia did not know Austria Hungary had a blank check from Germany… this meant Austria Hungary would be dead set on going to war
Give an example of dollar model with Serbia, Russia, and Austria-Hungary
the $100 bill in the bargaining model, with Russia and Austria-Hungary representing two parties. Uncertainty as to what the other party would do, if advances would be made, and how the other might extend their influence in the region led to tensions, which contributed to the outbreak of World War I. Russia perceived Austria-Hungary’s seizure of Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908 as a potential threat, since it infringed upon their influence in Serbia. While Austria-Hungary was motivated to prevent potential terror attacks from Serbs living in the region.
What was the UK’s interest in Belgium
Wanted to prevent German control of Belgium as they knew It made it easy for them to be invaded
What was Germany’s interest with Belgium
Schlieffen-Moltke Plan: to shift the distribution of power (could not honor commitment as cost of war would be too high otherwise)
Get France out Early
How did Germany show the commitment problem
Violating the treaty of London of 1839
Discuss the UK and the bargaining cycle
Backed by US, controlled outcome of Western Front, no longer a risk of Germany winning
Describe Germany and the bargaining cycle
Germany lost so much of their military in the fighting, that they cannot continue fighting on West front (P) due to the increased costs
Discuss the outbreak of war using the bargaining model
The bargaining model of war states that war occurs when neither side is willing to make the concessions proposed between each other which can be caused when the opposing sides lack an understanding of themselves or their opponent. In the case of Germany, they began to make the first move due to the miscalculated belief that the war would be decided within a matter of weeks and the one that dealt the first blow would be greatly advantaged. They also made the mistake of interpreting the mobilization of Russian troops as an immediate threat that was to be met with action.
Describe anarchy
Anarchy is the absence of supranational authority; unlike domestic politics, there are no clear lines of authority that delegate decision-making responsibility in the international system. Rather, individual states are sovereign within their own borders
What are the sources of order in the global system
Military, Political, Social, and Economic
Give an example of a causal relationship
Democracy causes peace theory
Give an example of constitutive theory
Norms valuing racial equality constitute national interests
Give an example of normative theory
Can wage just wars of self defense
Explain the impact distinguishable weapons (defense or offense) can impact the possibility of war
This can reduce the risks of miscommunication. Machine guns help the defense, nuclear weapons make offense impossible.
Give a historic example of overestimating in bargaining leverage
Iraq invaded Kuwait for control of oil production to pay for debts accrued during war with Iran and to avenge Kuwait’s role in decreasing OPEC oil prices that exacerbated Iraq’s economic challenges. Kuwait did not make concessions during negotiations with Iraq because of private information that Saddam was bluffing when he positioned troops on the Iraq-Kuwait border (sunk cost/audience cost).
Issues of private information and perception: Although his military was inferior Saddam fought the US because he believed the American public lacked the resolve to sustain any casualties
Give context for Russia becoming destabilized
Russo-Japanese War: Russia lost significant military power and international prestige as a world power. Combined with poor living conditions, the people began increasing their dissent toward Czar Nicholas, which would eventually lead to the Russian Revolution in 1917. It shifted the balance of power = destabilizing
Describe how Russia’s withdraw impacted the international system
The temporary withdrawal of Russia tilted this distribution toward Germany and Austria-Hungary. The subsequent recovery of Russian military strength in the years leading up to World War I helped trigger a commitment problem that destabilized European politics by again shifting the distribution of power back in Russia’s favor.
Discuss the July Crisis
Franz Ferdinand assassinated by Serbian national. Germany pledges its support for AH via a blank cheque, which is not known to the world (private information) at the time. AH suspects Serbian complicity and sends an ultimatum to avoid conflict.
Peaceful negotiations fail
Discuss how Austria-Hungary’s ultimatum would fail
Austria Hungary’s ultimatum to Serbia was an intentionally engineered bargaining failure because it was so unreasonable that Serbia would have no choice to fight
Discuss how Russia’s initial mobilization impacted the war as a whole
Russia partially mobilized to signal its willingness to support Serbia. Posters around Russia conveyed to Austria and Germany that . Germany responded with a mobilization because it saw Russia’s intent to invade
Discuss why Germany and Austria Hungary get involved
Austria Hungary gets involved to fight preventive war against Serbia. Germany and Austria-Hungary can involved to fight preventive war against Russia
Using the logic of the Commitment Problem, explain how Balkan Wars contribute to the outbreak of World War I.
The Balkan Wars, which favored Serbia, changed the territorial holdings in southeastern Europe. This allowed AH’s rival to demand political concessions as it grew in military strength. AH could not trust Serbia to stop funding separatist movements or future territorial demands and so launch a preventative war to stop Serbia’s ascent
What is a sunk cost
The action itself is the cost
What is a audience cost
Felt if they fail to execute on a promise or threat
Give an example of a sunk cost
Russian partial mobilization on Austria Hungary border
Give an example of a audience cost
- Serbia/Austria Hungary ultimatum
- Russia/Germany preWWI letters; July Crisis
Describe bargianing failure of Germany due to failure of knowledge
Germany doesn’t know about French Naval Agreement
Describe commitment problem between UK and France
This would come through the French Naval agreement and would begin their alliance
What commitment problem did Germany have
Treaty of London
Why did the Axis have more commitment problems than the allies
The reason Allies have no commitment problems is because they are stable and do not want war.
The Axis powers have commitment problems because they are unstable and expansionary, and also declining, and therefore must violate commitments, thus creating commitment problems, to survive.
From perception of their own power (Germany)- the Ottoman Empire is the corpse of Europe and the next to fall are Austrians. Germany feels that with their allies decreasing in power and the rising strength of the rest of Europe, Germany feels like they’re next after Austria so they are willing to break a commitment to peace, go to war NOW
Discuss the security dilemma
Exists when actions of policies that are intended to protect citizens of the state might simultaneously threaten the citizens of another state. Defensive actions can be perceived as more threatening… This decreases the likelihood of cooperation.
Why did Germany increase relationship with the Austira-Hungarians
Fear of encirclement from the French and Russia… this leads to strengthening of alliance with Austria-Hungary
Why did Russia increase relationship with French
Fear of no longer a great power so began building with help of the French and Great Program of military spending. This scared Germany.
Why did Austira-Hungary get closer to Germany
Fear of Serbia destroying their empire, and Russia not restraining itself in the Balkans. This results in them tying themself closer to Germany.
Why was Britain fearful of Germany
Fear of Germany’s policy of Weltpolitik (imperial plans)
Did governments belief in offense or defense
All militaries believed in offensive militaries being stronger than defensive militaries. Example was Schlieffen Plan – Germany fighting a two front war against France and then Russia
What were the results of the end of WW1
Change in global order, treaty of Versailles leading to WW2, growth of militaries (except Germany), and reset national interests
Describe how the treaty of versailles impacted Europe
Victors heavily influenced and shaped document. Germany and Russia excluded from negotiating. Revising of imperial orders, claims Germany responsible for WW1, reparations, and plethora of new states and boundaries (LOTS OF DEMOCRACIES)
What is the two-level game
International outcomes and foreign policy choices reflect political negotiations on a domestic and international level
Sets of Political Problems….How define the national interest, different domestic groups may hold competing foreign policy interests, how make collective choice that translates individual interests into national interests, and distribution of power
What is the Coercion dilemma
A tension stemming from the capacity of some political actors to direct the behavior of others through either the use of coercion or its threatened use. This tension emerges from the simultaneous dependence of legitimate political orders on some coercive capacity to protect people and the potential that the same coercive capacity can be used for unfair or unjust purposes, including the violent redistribution of wealth and territory
What is the Collective Action Problem
The challenges associated with sustaining a cooperative effort among two or more actors to provide a public good, These cooperative efforts are often hindered by free riding, in which actors enjoy the benefits of the public good without having to pay any of those costs associated with supplying it.
What is the Democratic Peace Theory
A prominent theory in the study of international relations arguing that rates of military conflict should be lower among democratic states than among groups of states that include some autocracies
Define International System
Global aggregation of people, organizations, ideas, rules, and the natural world. It includes a series of political, economic, and social connections binding these parts into a larger whole.
What is Jus Ad Bellum
The right to war… Highlights the justness or appropriateness of any decision to begin a war and holds that states can legitimately wage defensive wars to protect themselves from military aggression that violates their territorial integrity or sovereignty
What is Lenin’s theory of imperialism
Lenin’s explanation for WW1, arguing economic pressures associated with capitalism triggered imperial expansion and war among wealthy states
Define preemptive war
A war fought to prevent a shift in the distribution of military power between opposing sides that would ultimately pressure the weakening side to make a series of political concessions in the future
Define preventive war
War fought to prevent a shift in the distribution of military power between opposing sides that would ultimately pressure the weakening side to make a series of political concessions in the future.
What are self-enforcing agreements
Agreements or contracts that do not need a third-party enforcement mechanism to ensure all parties comply.
What is strategic interdependence
A condition under which the choices of actors often depend on the actions - both real and anticipated - of other actors in the environment
