Final Exam Flashcards
Democratic peace theory falls short when considering…
where elections are insufficient, the lack of consensus on mechanisms, the emergence of post-World War 1, and great power politics contribution
How is war a political choice and a bargaining process in itself?
Consists of political and military decisions, battlefield results provide key information, length of war and bargaining failure association, and military information helps make decisions in bargaining
What does prewar diplomacy consist of?
Exchange offers, reject offers, sending signals, and deciding issues in dispute
How is bargaining done through fighting
Reject an offer to make a new one, pay battle costs in exchange for new offers, update assessments of (p & C & value), and repetition of cycle
How does war termination occur?
Both sides agree to stop fighting through resolution of pre-war bargaining failure, clear up bargaining failures that occurred due to fighting, private information has been discovered
What is the convergence principle?
Fighting erodes disagreements over capabilities
What is screening?
Fighting allows to separate resolved opponents from bluffers
How does commitment problem play into war termination?
The shift in the distribution of power caused from the war must be stabile. This way both parties won’t be able to restart the war with new concessions. This can also occur if their is no way to be credible in future demands of concessions, through changing one’s interests, and military occupation to control interests
What impact does great power wars change global politics
Creation of new self-enforcing order, set terms of settlements, and edit the international status quo
How do organizational actors impact the global political order?
Changing boundaries, new states (regime or organization), hierarchical order, and international organizations
What are the different institutions, and their jobs, in the global political order?
Political (distribution of territory among political organizations)
Military (Armaments constraints to hold distribution of power)
Economic (Rules governing economic trade)
What were the lasting consequences of the Treaty of Versailles?
Political settlement to war, legitimizes entry of new states, changes imperial order, Germany claims responsibility of WW1, and reparations
How was the end of WW1 and democracy connected?
Systemic wave of new democracies, US support for national self-determination showed support for democracies, change to global order because of new regimes
How was Germany punished for WW1?
Territorial loses, regime change, massive reparations, loss in military size and might
What is a state?
Political organization that projects of political authority over people, provides public goods, and pursues some set of common interests
What is a civil war?
Organized violence fighting for the control of a state. Different from Ethnic pogroms. Typically marked by breakdown in the rule of law, spurred with intense grievances, and difficult to end.
What can the fight for stateness tell us about civil wars?
There is a rejection of authority by rebels, resource and people distribution heavily considered, some sort of exclusion, monopolization is everpresent, and institutions being challenged (IE regime type)
What are some different sources of civil wars?
Greed, political, and grievances
How does greed tie into civil wars?
There could be natural resource conflicts, foreign aid fuels rebellion, its easier to mobilize in poor countries because the soldiers are already poor so less to lose, and income inequality
How do politics tie into civil wars?
State weakness, failing of domestic political order, inability to police peripheral areas, rough terrain has higher likelihood of insurgency, poor countries are weak countries and therefore more likely to see and be hurt by insurrections
What is collective identity?
Connects individuals to groups and holds them together. Emerges through social interaction, such as behavior, dialogue, and other daily expressions.
What components are there of collective identitiy>
Constitutive norms to set membership, common purpose or interests, relational comparisons with other identity groups, cognitive framework to understand the world
How are grievances tied to civil wars?
Race & Religion & Ethnicity issues/fights, and fusions of ethnonationalism
Why is collective identity important when considering political/military conflict?
Constitutes a groups interests, coalition politics, facilitating collective action, and commitment problem (think US in war for democracy in Iraq)
How does international intervention occur in civil wars?
All outbreak of wars have considered how international actors would play a role in the conflict, international intervention can be necessary to remove commitment problem in wars, and this external support is needed to shift balance of power and begin negotiations
What is the moral hazard problem? How does the moral hazard problem tie into international intervention?
The moral hazard problem is the expectation of international support encouraging weak rebels to fight. This encouragement can result in weak groups beginning and continuing a conflict due to perceived support
What is a refugee
Displaced person who leaves their home region to escape war, political repression, or natural disaster
Where do most refugees go?
Neighboring countries (73%) that are considered developing (86%)
What are some causes of wartime population displacecment?
Ethnic nationalism (exclusionary beliefs using selective violence and wartime purging), Information/dedication problem related to “loyal” citizens, and strategic wartime displacement
What are the types of strategic displacement?
Cleansing, depopulation, and forced relocation
What is cleansing
Deliberate expulsion of members of political, ethnic, or social group. Typically includes collective targeting, permanent displacement, and an outward push to force deportation
What is depopulation
Deliberate expulsion of people from a territory. Different from cleansing because it is indiscriminate targeting (everyone) and temporary. Also relies on indirect violence such as shelling and airstrikes.
What is displacement
Tries to concentrate people within a conflict zone and/or to designated settlements (IE camps or urban areas). Temporarily will use collective or indiscriminate targeting
Describe the premise of the Assortative Theory of Displacement
Inferring loyalty/resistance from civilian population based on their location
Break down the different parts of the Assortative Theory of Displacement
Flight to armed groups = civilians support rebels
Flight from armed group = defection/opposition
Staying behind = Sends mixed message
Guilt by location = movement is sign of collaboration or defection
How is the assortative theory of displacement used?
Perpetrators create incentives to flee so they can make inferences about the public. They move the population then update their beliefs about the population. This is typically going to be targeted behavior.
What is terrorism?
A nonstate actor’s use or threatened use of violence against civilians in pursuit of a political aim. This violence is in attempt to achieve a larger political goal. Designed to provoke fear.
Does terrorism have a universally definition?
No
Why do terrorist organizations choose violence?
They see political participation as unproductive, or reject established political system. This means they see violence as the only solution.
How do terrorist organizations operate?
Due to military weakness, they will act on random, unpredictable attacks on noncombatants. They will also operate in secrecy as they are an organization of paranoia and desperation
What are the leadership styles of terrorist organizations?
Bureaucratic, decentralized, or hybridized
What are the strategies of terrorist violence?
Attrition, intimidation, provocation, spoiling, and outbidding
What is attrition as a strategy for terrorist violence?
Sending message to enemy government that can impose costs
What is intimidation as a strategy for terrorist violence?
Signal to population, movements, or regime through violence
What is provocation as a strategy for terrorist violence?
Incite gov to upset population. This will push moderates to terrorist side
What is spoiling as a strategy for terrorist violence?
Undermine confidence in moderates at home. This is done by showing the inability of the government to reach settlements or agreements.
What is outbidding as a strategy for terrorist violence?
Engage in attacks to build support and demonstrate resolve. Using attacks as a signaling device so that you outbid other extremist groups for radicals in your target area
How did 9/11 change US international policy?
Policy went from great power competition to statebuilding, regime change around the world, and expanding international footprint.
What is the nuclear paradox?
Nuclear weapons brought about 1945 Hiroshima, and the cold war. However, since these two issues there has been no major power war since the creation of nuclear weapons. The paradox is that they have potentially global catastrophic effects, but their deadliness has encouraged restraint
How has the nuclear revolution impacted timeframes in time of conflict?
Decision making time has shrunk, and there is a newfound urgency in crisis bargaining and decision making
How has the roles of civilians changed due to nuclear revolution
In conventional warfare, military forces provide a shield for civilians. In a nuclear war, civilians can successfully be targeted without first defeating military forces. This means militaries get to use civilians as hostages to deter adversary from making political change
How has the nuclear revolution changed power dynamics?
Nuclear weapons are an important force multiplier that makes relatively weak states on equal footing, limits ability of US to force regime change, and MAD limits likeliness of conflict or escalation
How has the world shifted from defense to deterrence because of nuclear revolution?
Defense was used in conventional warfare as militaries fought militaries with defense and defensive strategies. Nuclear warfare has resulted in emphasis on deterrence as one cannot shoot down nuclear missiles. Raises likelihood of threats and the question of the credibility of threats
What are defensive capabilities?
Military instruments that limit adversary’s ability to inflict harm. Great wall of china is an example
What are deterrence capabilities?
These rest on punitive capabilities that involve the power to punish and cause harm. This includes invasion, aerial attacks, and nuclear strikes
Describe Nuclear deterrence
Prevent adversary from attacking with credible threats to impose costly retaliatory attacks
What does successful deterrence depend on?
Secure second-strike capabilities AKA MAD
What is the problem of credibility in nuclear strikes?
Because there is MAD, many will believe that no rational actor would ever truly engage in nuclear conflict.
What are some examples of credibility problems?
Bluffing (do they have the capabilities), will they really fight a nuclear war, and will they really protect allies if it means getting involved
How do you make credible nuclear threats?
Have the capabilities and show your resolve
What is the nuclear triad?
Strategic bombers, ICBMs, and submarine launched ballistic missiles
What is the Brinkmanship strategy?
Making the unthinkable credible. This is done through the decision to participate in the conflict itself signals resolve to engage in nuclear combat if it comes down to it. This can be done through putting the trigger in someone elses hand.
How does the Cuban missile crisis demonstrate brinkmanship
President Kennedy ordered quarantine of Cuba with Navy blockade. Then delegated control of nuclear attacks to mid-level military personnel. This increases risk of direct military conflict which would then result in nuclear attacks.
What are the problems of extended deterrence?
Why would a state risk its own citizens for another country?
How do you fix the problems with extended deterrence?
Station troops or nukes in territory of allies. This means when a foreign country strikes, you have a trip-wire force, or you have allies with gifted nuclear warheads ready
Does defense undermine the stability of deterrence?
National missile defense weakens the idea of MAD which, in turn, increases likelihood of nuclear warfare. However there is high expectations that National missile defenses will fail because they suffer from uncertain feasibility.
What is the optimists perspective of nuclear proliferation
Nuclear proliferation should, on balance, reinforce the international status quo and make war less likely
What did the peaceful end of the cold war suggest?
There was the end of great power competition and the “end of history” occurred due to triumph of liberal ideas, democracy, and capitalism.
Why was there a resurgence of great power politics after “the end of history”?
9/11 attacks would reorient global foreign policy, the 2008 financial crisis would mix things up, Syria & Ukraine would also bring global conflict
Why are great powers important to global politics?
Resource control (territory, military, and population), economic influence (Economic aid & Hegemonic stability theory), political influence (ability to overpower politically less powerful countries), and military
What is the economic foundation of China’s rise?
Sustained period of economic growth starting in 1978 continued until Covid-19. Would be unaffected by 2008 financial crisis allowing for them to reach competitive state quickly
Describe US-China relations?
There are strong economic interests. China exports much more than they import from US. This builds a strong foundation for common interests as China relies on these exports for their economy to function. However, there is issues with this economic relationship with intellectual properties, trade wars, Covid-19, and domestic disdain towards China
What was China’s grand strategy pre-Xi?
Create jobs to preserve regime and social stability, and settling border disputes
What is China’s goals under Xi?
Spread global influence through economy, maritime expansion, taking Taiwan’s land, and stronger relationship with Russia
How does Taiwan play into US-China Tensions?
US would develop strong relationship with Taiwan during the cold war, and would also increase relationship with China during Nixon administration. US wants to preserve the status quo.
What has caused change in disputes between Taiwan and China?
Economic ties had first helped to stabilize, however in the past 20 years tensions have escalated when Taiwan has pushed to declare formal independence
What are China’s interests in regard to China-Taiwan problem?
Political stability (don’t want secessionist movements), rallying point for nationalism, and Taiwan is strategic island for naval prowess,
What are Taiwan’s interests in regard to China-Taiwan problem?
Peaceful status quo, preservation of democracy, strong ties with US, and increase popularity of independence
What are the US’s interests in regard to China-Taiwan problem?
Peace, handle conflict through negotiations, and strategic ambiguity
Describe the important events within the Ukrainian Civil War
Breaks out in 2014 as Ukraine moves towards European Union. Opposition groups would topple their pro-Russian leader. The fighting would mainly be in Donetsk. Instability would be used to annex Crimea
Why would Russia interfere in US elections?
Putin was angered at US expanding its influence, economic sanctions placed on Russia by US, and believed that the coup was led by the US and wanted to get even
Why is Ukraine an important moment in world politics?
Pushes democracies closer together, changing the energy markets, China and Russia become closer, and leaves question mark for Taiwan
What is globalization?
Integration of national markets into larger global marketplace. Associated with higher levels of trade, capital flows, migration, and global supply chains
What is the relationship between globalization and global peace?
Capacity of globalization to promote peace nested in larger great power political order. Builds a connection/relationship between countries and gives them a common interest.
What is Hegemonic Stability Theory?
Belief that global order is most stable when a powerful state is willing and able to provide certain public goods
What is the power transition theory?
Theory holds that shifts in the distribution of capabilities among great powers provoke wars that fundamentally alter the larger international political order
What is cap and trade?
A system that allows actors to sell surplus carbon emission credits to countries that produce more emissions than allowed?
What are common pool resources?
A good that is non excludable but rivalrous
What is the tragedy of the commons?
Tendency for common pool resources to be depleted when unregulated.
What does Ukraine want out of the Ukraine-Russia conflict?
Russia out of Crimea, security guarantees, and to join NATO
What does Russia want out of the Ukraine-Russia conflict?
Crimea (likely all Ukraine), buffer zone with NATO, and protection of Russian cultural minority
What commitment problem does Ukraine have in the Ukraine-Russia conflict?
Cannot commit to not joining Western organization
What commitment problem does Russia have in the Ukraine-Russia conflict?
Russia can not commit to not violating Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty
What are the current issues in the Ukraine-Russia impacting negotiations (for better or worse)?
Promoting Negotiation: Sanctions on Russia push Russia to negotiate
Hurting Negotiation: Ukraine joining NATO would shift the balance of power, commitment of both leaders to their people that they would win the war, Russia wanting more territory
What are command economies?
Economic decisions influenced by government officials rather than private enterprises
What is Unipolar dominance?
Military or economic dominance typically… this is when one state has dominance over the entire international system. An example is US unipolarity during1991-2008
What is bipolar dominance?
Gap between military/economic capabilities. This is when two states, typically opposites, are both in charge of the international system. An example is the Soviet Union and US during the civil war
What is multipolar dominance?
A fluid alliance configuration in which there are multiple great power actors. An example is Britain, France, Russia, and Germany before WW1
What is the security dilemma?
Improving security through armaments could be perceived by adversaries as an act of aggression
How has Covid impacted globalization?
Covid has resulted in many countries becoming more independent from the international world as it has shut down international markets, trade, and interactions. This, in turn, has weakened the international order.
Describe the duality of globalization
Globalization is a powerful source for common political interests and peace among states, BUT also stresses and resets domestic political orders of states.
How is globalization impacting US domestic political order
Changes within the republican party after Trump as they begin to lean more isolationist. Democrats find themself, recently, more pro-globalization. With globalization, there is also tension between US and China as they battle for international dominance, and deal out tariffs
What are the risks of climate change?
Higher levels of CO2 resulting in more severe weather, higher temperatures, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels
What are some political challenges associated with addressing climate change?
Losing land underwater, opening of new channels and water pathways, common pool resource disputes, and water availability
How will climate change impact immigration?
People will be forced to move from low-lying areas to interior regions of a country/landmass. There will also be sovereignty issues for island states.
Why is the arctic important as climate change occurs?
There will be access to seabed resources that were previously untouchable, and the opening of a northern sea passage (Russia-Norway competition)
Why is war important?
Alters territorial boundaries, cause population movements, destroy empires, change regimes, democratization, and changes economies.
