Taiwan Flashcards
Central issue of contention in cases of TW and HK
AFter 1997 HK no longer an outstanding sovereingty issee bc it became part of PRC, but challenge for BJ since then is if it has mishandled relations btw HK and mainland it may potentially alienate public in TW as well as other reltaed foreign powers eg UK and US.
Since 1949 when around 2 million KMT refugees sought asylum in TW after communist defeat, it has never been officially ruled by BJ govt, but BJ has consistantly claimed that TW a renegade province of China and it has a right to retake TW by force if necessary.
In many ways when it comes to relations along the TWS it is still an outstanding sov issue for both parties, but since late 1980s there has been inc amount of interdependence in terms of trade, economic and cultural societal interactions between BJ and TP.
Role of foreign powers
HK - importance of GB and US. GB signed agreement with CN authorities Joint DEc of 1984 which was a treaty commitment to GB under intl law which outlined conds under which 1997 sov of HK would be returned to BJ. US, HK Act of 1992 demonstrates interest in continuation of HK’s economic autonomy, pol stability and human rights. 2019 US parl passed leg which reflects similar concerns, background had to do with series of pro-dem protests in HK
TW- US important role, one of the most important powers in rels btw TW and MLC. Washington treaty commitment to TW govt thourhg defense treaty signed 1954 which committed US to security of tW. Discontinued when BJ switched recognition from TP to BJ in 1979. Despite derec by Wash of TP in 1979, US TW rels act underpins quasi-alliance rels btw TP and Wash since then. According to TRA wash obligated to engage in sales of defensive arms to TW, remains v contentious issue today.
Altho US maintained position of sttrategic ambiguity when it comes to rels btw MLC and TW, it has supported TW in bid to expand certain aspects of intl rels.
Issue of TW has remained one of most imp core concerns of sino-us rels and if two power were to go to war it would be because of TW.
Dispute over TW’s Sov
There are two main arguments/lines of thinking:
1. BJ uses the successor govt arg to defenmd position that TW is a province of China - at the end of WW2 TW sov transferred to CN defacto ad dejure terms. CN reffered to TW as ROC instead of PRC wsince the latter didn’t eist. In 1949 PRC became successor govt of ROC bc of CCP victory over KMT. Under intl law the PRC therefore assumed legal juris over TW. So BJ’s arg over sov claim over TW. PRC in BJ’s perspective rep ‘all of China’ esp after 1971 when PRC govt managed to take over China seat within UN while TP govt essentially kicked out.
2. TP govt puts emphasis on concept of prescription - since 1949 juris of ROC govrt over TW has not been seriously disturbed. Govt in TP consistenly expressed claim of sov and juris over its territory inc TW. Since 1949, PRC failed to make TW part of the PRC by miliatry attacks despite attempts.
Interrelatedness of the HK and TW cases
Similarities - both were socalled Asian Tiger ecos with diff political and eco systems compared to MLC.
TW democracy since late 1980s and until fairly recently it was viewed by some in HK as a model for HK to follow.
HK since 1997 seen intro of ‘OC,Ts) viweded as a model for BJ to solve issue of TW.
Economic changes in tW - JP colonial legacies
Transformation
JP colonial power and intro many controversial policies as a coloniser of TW, but one quite useful for TW eco development. Late 1930s var JP economic policies helpful for dev and by late 1930s TW outperformed many Asian colonies in devl and edu terms. JP colonial legacies extremely conducive to dev of TW eco in post-war era
Mid 1940s - war torn economy and ineffective pols under Governor Chen Yi
40s-50s - land reform policies that were useful for subs dev of economic
60s-70s dominance of labour intensive manu industries
60s-90s - TW one of the fastest rates of growth to economy among dev world
80s and beyond - focus on high tech industrialisation and tech intensive items are a major export such as semi-conductors
Today TW firms such as TSMC which is worlds most important Semiconductor maker, have been key to golabl digital economy
Political Changes in TW
25/10/45 - retrocession, TW population happy to be back to CN at first but subsequent atrocities by KMT regime as an authoritarian power.
Late 40s-early 70s - KMT hard authoritarianism
mid 70s-mid 80s - ruling party started to soften position on political rule and allowing est of first opp party on the island
late 80s - democratisation experienced.
REtrocession:
Quite tubulent rule initially despite initial population being happy. late 1945-46, LMT eager to control over TW through a system of provincial admin, but a lot of pols intro by CY were controversial and resulted in large public discontent.
KMT new and less competent colonial ruler compared to JP
228 Incident of 1947 saw explosion of tension btw state and society and showed authorities hardline attitude towards the population.
1949-50 - KMT lost Civil war and forced ot retreat to TW with 2 mil refugees.
For a long period of time TW govt engaged in prop against MLC govt and vV. TW govt would emphasise terrible policies under MAo era eg GLF and Cr to argue CN people suffering, but by same token BK govt advancing similar propaganda about how TW people suffering - Xinhua 15 Mar 1949, ‘The CN people certainly will liberate TWin order to save our TW compatriots from misery’.
1948 Hard authoritarianism in TW: Impl of PRov Amendments for the Period of Mobilisation of the Suppression of Communist rEbellion. Govt reager to take MLC by force and to supress the communist rebellion but of course unsuccessful.
1949 - marital law introduced to tighten control of TW society, suppressing survival and likelihood of indp media and pol parties.
Soft Authoritarinism in TW: Ruling parties started to loosen control so emergence of pro-dem movement, more media freedom and expansion of low level elec tions
However there were limitations–the party ban and a large extent of constraints imposed on freedom of speech.
Democratisation since late 80s:
1986 - Democratic Progressive Party formed illegally
1987 - leader lifted martial law watershed moment
1989 first legal milt-party competition through elections
1992 - first full election for Taiwanese parliamen
1996 - first direct pres electino and every four uyears thereafter
2000-this year, various rounds of peaceful transition of power from one party to the other
Relation with MLC as main electoral issue in TW since dmeocratisation
TW a young democracy so still problems with democratic consolidation, but TW’s rels with MLC is often one of the most important and contested issue within debate.
Politicians presure voters to consider conflicting imperatives of eco prag, identity and nat security, since opening of relations btw two sides have accelerated economic rels btw MLC and TW over time. Inc amount of TW investment going to CN and lost of MLC women marrying TW men. Societal interdependence accelerated btw the two.
Evolving Cross-straight policies under different presidents.
1
1988 TW ruled by TW pres Lee Lee Deng Hui, ruled for about 12 years. In 1991 ack that PRC a ‘political entity that controls the mainland area’ and the ROC a ‘sovereign state’. Mar 1991 introduced Guidelines for National Unification which outlined conditions for which reunifiaction could take place, one being democratisation of MLC politics. 1993 introduced semi-official CS negotiations under ‘one CN with separate interpreatations.
At the time BJ and TP didn’t recog eachother but were practical and started semi-official negotiations to deal with funcitonal issues. L abolished prov level of govt i TW so its ruled directly from level of central govt.
Missil crisis 1995-6, Lee visited Cornell University which irritated BJ so they initiated policies of coercive diplomacy of military operations in TWS against TW and US military involvemnt.
1999 Lee argued that rels btw TW and MLC should be desc as ‘a special state-to-state relationship’, and there is no need for govt in TW to declare independence bc ROC is already an indp state.
Missile crisis 1995-6
Dittmer and Wu
visa granted by Wash to facilitate Lee’s visit to Cornell.
BJ engaged in three-fold response - military exercises, hard rhetoric attacks against US and TW, and shuttle diplomacy.
7th fleet sent to TWS signalling US resolve against CN military attack against TW.
CN premier made powerful statement trying to persuade TW voters not to support LEE in upcoming 1966 elections, but all their action didn’t work as he had landslide victory. CN reactions reinforced perc eption of BJ as TW’s major national security threat.
Dittmer, 1981 -
Wu, 2000 -
Use perspective of idea of strategic triangle to understand relations of three parties US TW and CN. There are three criteria for applicability of the model - circumscribes the relations among three rational sov actors; the bilateral relations among any two of them is contingent on rels with third; national security always at stake.
Applying this to W-TP-BJ, US acts as structural balancer in this rel. During Missile crisis, Wash tilted towards TP which reduced BJ to outcast in the marriage.
Chen Shen Bian switch from conciliation to revisionism and nationalism 2000-08
During time his position regarding relations with MLC switched from conciliatory to revisionist and nationalist position. Inaugural speech was coniliatory but PRC responded with deep sense of distrust.
Tried to introduce unilateral measures to foster ties but ineffective and BJ didn’t want anything to do with them.
TW electoral politics as well as his frustration with dealing with BJ drove him towards revisionist and nationalistic stance in terms of dealing with PRC.
Many initiatives irritated both BJ and Wash, abolished national unification guidelines, and passed referendum law to put some of the controversial issues on the table.
By 2008 had low approval rating among TW, and family members involved in a scandal so govt in a really bad position.
Ma Ying-jeou from the KMT, détent, 2008-2016
Relations btw LMC and TW were relatively stable Introduced policy of ‘Three No’s and managed to resume semi-official negotiations with CN which resulted in various pacts inc trade agreement which eased tensions. However one backfired, at the time some TW activists occupied the parliament which led to the anti-CN ‘Sunflower movement’ in 2014.
However there was no sign of major concessions from PRC over sovereignty dispute.
Suppor tfor unification and formal independence was stiull low and majority of the ppl in TW still fabour the status quo, a continuous trend until today.
Twsai Ying-Wen, 2016-24
Tsai wanted to maintain status quo across TWS and promised to continue implementation of CS pacts sealed by Ma with MLC.
Refused to accept 1992 concensus as basis for resumption of talks with MLC. But refers to ROC constitution as the guideline to govern CS relations.
NJ not happy with her election and so has frozen CS engagements and taken away many of TW’s intl diplomatic allies which deepens security threats to TW. Military exercise via encirclement took place Aug 2022 in response to US House Speaker’s visit to TW.
Intensifying US support for TW since Tsai’s election.
Beijing’s position over TW
Xi - will continue to strive for peaceful reunification but wont promise to renounce use of force and reserve the option to take all means necessary. Believe reuinification is unavoidable.
Lai’s election Jan 2024
DPP won the election for a historic third term which BJ was not happy with. Sligtly comofrted though with the hung parliament after parliamentary elections so no party is the dominant party.
Outcome not what BJ desired as they would have preffered KMT candidate, and tried to influence the election eg cognitive warfare, misinformation, economic statecraft etc but these didn’t work and TW voters had their own minds.
Short term detrioration of ties across TWS
The election may result in this. The root cause is NJ’s distrust of Lai from DPP, and Lai is like Tsai and doesn’t want to accept BJ’s term for resumption of semi-official talks.
Lai argues TW is a sov country under name ROC and there is no need to formalise indpeendence and risk conflict. He is willing to engage with BJ as ‘equals’ but Xi would never accept this as TW is jsut another region of CN.
BJ condemned countries that congratulated Lai for his victory for ‘interfering in CN’s internal affairs’.
BJ seeks to further reduce the number of TW’s existing diplomatic allies to de-legitimise TP.
