Stats PPT 1

Question 1

Are there really “hot streaks” in sports in like baseball and basketball?

Answer 1

Yes and no. Sometimes random occurrences appear to be “hot streaks”.

Question 2

If you flip a coin and get 11 heads in a row, should you bet on tails the next time?

Answer 2

Nope

Question 3

Are there truly disease clusters?

Answer 3

Yes, sometimes there are.

Sometimes, what appears to be “pattern” is a random variant.

Question 4

How common are coincidences?

Answer 4

Very common. You don’t remember the non-coincidences.

Question 5

Is there cosmic meaning to your having the same initials as (name a famous person)?

Answer 5

No cosmic meaning. But non-coincidences are also very common.

Question 6

How good are human beings at making choices based on numerical information?

Answer 6

Poor. We are wired to see patterns, even when they’re not there.

Question 7

How good are we at dealing with ambiguity?

Answer 7

Poor. We like things being white or black.

Question 8

Think back to the Monty Hall question: Should you switch to door number two?

Answer 8

Yes, because the odds remain 2/3 (not 1/2) that you will get the Porche if you switch to door number two.

Question 9

If you get a positive screening for HIV, should you get your will up to date?

Answer 9

Yes, but not because of the results. You could have a false positive.

Question 10

Does correlation imply causation?

Answer 10

Possibly. Ex: Second hand smoke correlates with increased asthma in children. In this example the answer would be yes.

Question 11

How are we fooled by regression to the mean?

Answer 11

An extreme result is likely to change to a more modest one. An extreme result is an outlier.