Sex Offender Risk Assessment Flashcards
What percentage of sex offenses committed by offenders are not identified as sex offenders?
95%
What is the base rate of reoffending over a 5-6 year period?
11.5% (most reoffending happens in the 5 year period)
In WI what is the trend of recidivism among sexual offenders?
It decreases over the course of the time due to the nature of legal intervention
Have the base rates of sexual offending been dropping? Why?
Yes – we don’t really know – public awareness?
What are factors we consider when looking at sexual offending risk assessment?
Static (historial and best predictors) and dynamic factors (changeable, research on these early stages, guide treatment approaches)
What are major risk predictors of sex offenders?
- Deviant sexual preferences (arousal preferences)
- Antisocial behaviors (we do not care)
What is the best assessment for risk predictors? What does this assessment do?
Actuarial assessment (empirically established risk factors and rules for combining risk) and provides probability estimates
What are the most common risk assessment for sex offenders?
- STATIC-99
- Used to be RRASOR
What items are used in RRASOR?
- Prior sex offense charges
- Male victims
- Extrafamilial victims
- Under age 25
What does the Static-99 instrument measure?
- Theory of combining deviance and antisocial factors
What is an index offense?
The most recent set of offenses that resulted in the person being in jail
What happens when the base rate of offending changes in a population?
The probability estimates changes as well
What score on the static-99 is considered high risk?
Score of 8 (45%) comparable to old score of 6 (32%)
Why do we use actuarial assessment?
These are more accurate compared to clinical judgement –> clinical judgements inflated risk of sexual offending
Why are clinical judgements so inaccurate?
- “yuck” factor (high risk)
- “slick” factor (low risk, the person seems nice)
- I am an expert
- We have a hard time taking responsibility for inaccuracies (comfort with false positives, better if people are locked up)
- Anxiety of false negatives
What assessment measures treatment change? What does it measure?
Violence Risk Scale which measures recidivism
What is the Chapter 980 statute?
More likely than not (51% or higher) that the person will engage in sexual acts in the future. This is not related to non-contact offenses. Professional certainty through actuarial assessments.
What is the deadly duo? How was this measured?
Sexual deviance and psychopathy leads to increased risk of sexual offending. This was measured through PPG.
What is the deadly duo? How was this measured?
Sexual deviance and psychopathy leads to increased risk of sexual offending. This was measured through PPG.
Does psychopathy predict sexual recidivism?
No
Does deviance predict sexual recidivism?
Yes
Does deviance predict sexual recidivism?
Yes
What does the deadly duo predict?
Violent/serious recidivism but not sexual recidivism
Does psychopathy and deviance add to predictive validity of static-99?
No, it was predictive but these factors did not increase predictive ability
Does psychopathy and deviance add to predictive validity of static-99?
No, it was predictive but these factors did not increase predictive ability
Were PCL-R scores predictive of sexual recidivism?
No
Were paraphilia diagnoses associated with risk of reoffending?
No
Why are risk assessments complicated?
How do we control our bias toward “high risk” conclusions
How do we diagnose non-consent paraphilia without PPG?
- There was an option of consent, but they used force
- Pattern of behavior
- No capacity to distort to believe victim consenting
- Stranger rapes
What are the different types of sex offenders?
Heterogenous group
- Rapists
- Child sex offenders
- Sadistic
- Psychotic takers
- Child pornography only offenders (no history of contact offending)
- Juveniles
- Females
What are methods of child sex offender typology?
- Often use grooming
- Often thinks not hurting child
What are two types of child sex offenders?
- Fixated or pedophile
- Regressed or situational (not sexually aroused to prepubescent children)
What are typical patterns of deception among child sex offenders?
“Not really lying”, deflection
What are four types of victims sexual offenders prepetrate on and which ones are higher risk to the population?
Incest vs. Extrafamilial (crossing a boundary and more likely to be sexually deviant)
- Incest offenders are lower risk to the population
- Less likely to be pedophilic
- Lazy offenders (easier to do things inside the home than outside the home)
Stranger vs Known
- Stranger offenders are higher risk because it is hard to manage the risk and there is no pretense
What are the three types of rapists?
Anger (do more damage, 25-40%), power (just want to control over someone, 60-70%), and sadistic rapists (2-5%)
What are “hands off offenders”?
Voyeurism (the act of watching people have sex)
Exhibitionism
Child pornography viewing
What type of “hands off offenders are at highest risk for reoffending
Exhibitionists: very compulsive cycle and anxious cycle
What is the sexual compulsivity cycle?
Negative emotion –> sexual activity masturbation –> relief from negative emotion
What are cross-over offenders and how are they identified?
These are people who have committed different types of sex crimes and polygraphs are used to see if they are being true about their sex crimes
What are contact offenders more likely to have than internet offenders? What about internet offenders?
- CO: High levels of cognitive distortions especially empathy distortions
- IO: Higher identification with fictional characters, higher scores on fantasy scales, underassertiveness, and motor impulsivity (“I just started clicking”)
What is the risk level of online-only offenders?
Relatively low risk of committing contact sexual offense in the future (even if they have past history of contact offending)
What are the recidivism risk of child pornography?
Relatively low –> 4.6% committed new offense
What tool is used for child pornography risk assessment?
The C-PORT Risk Tool
What are the three types of female sex offenders?
- Teacher-lover
- Intergenerationallly predisposed (history of abuse who then abuses
- Male-coerced (dependent, forced or coerced to abuse but initiated by male partner)
Are there female sex offender risk tools?
No
What tools are used to assess juvenile sex offenders?
J-SOAP and ERASOR
How do we measure risk for females?
Base rate
What is the rate of sexual recidivism for female offenders? When are they most likely to reoffend?
1.8%-3% and most likely during 5 years
Are juveniles likely to reoffend? Why is this important?
No and important to communicate to courts bc juveniles are treated like adults
What is the narcissistic reactance theory?
- Sense of entitlement
- ## Easily react to rejection with anger
What are the two pathways to rape?
1) Hostile masculinity
2) Sexual promiscuity
What are alternative facot factors
