Sex Offender Risk Assessment Flashcards
What percentage of sex offenses committed by offenders are not identified as sex offenders?
95%
What is the base rate of reoffending over a 5-6 year period?
11.5% (most reoffending happens in the 5 year period)
In WI what is the trend of recidivism among sexual offenders?
It decreases over the course of the time due to the nature of legal intervention
Have the base rates of sexual offending been dropping? Why?
Yes – we don’t really know – public awareness?
What are factors we consider when looking at sexual offending risk assessment?
Static (historial and best predictors) and dynamic factors (changeable, research on these early stages, guide treatment approaches)
What are major risk predictors of sex offenders?
- Deviant sexual preferences (arousal preferences)
- Antisocial behaviors (we do not care)
What is the best assessment for risk predictors? What does this assessment do?
Actuarial assessment (empirically established risk factors and rules for combining risk) and provides probability estimates
What are the most common risk assessment for sex offenders?
- STATIC-99
- Used to be RRASOR
What items are used in RRASOR?
- Prior sex offense charges
- Male victims
- Extrafamilial victims
- Under age 25
What does the Static-99 instrument measure?
- Theory of combining deviance and antisocial factors
What is an index offense?
The most recent set of offenses that resulted in the person being in jail
What happens when the base rate of offending changes in a population?
The probability estimates changes as well
What score on the static-99 is considered high risk?
Score of 8 (45%) comparable to old score of 6 (32%)
Why do we use actuarial assessment?
These are more accurate compared to clinical judgement –> clinical judgements inflated risk of sexual offending
Why are clinical judgements so inaccurate?
- “yuck” factor (high risk)
- “slick” factor (low risk, the person seems nice)
- I am an expert
- We have a hard time taking responsibility for inaccuracies (comfort with false positives, better if people are locked up)
- Anxiety of false negatives
What assessment measures treatment change? What does it measure?
Violence Risk Scale which measures recidivism
What is the Chapter 980 statute?
More likely than not (51% or higher) that the person will engage in sexual acts in the future. This is not related to non-contact offenses. Professional certainty through actuarial assessments.
What is the deadly duo? How was this measured?
Sexual deviance and psychopathy leads to increased risk of sexual offending. This was measured through PPG.
What is the deadly duo? How was this measured?
Sexual deviance and psychopathy leads to increased risk of sexual offending. This was measured through PPG.
Does psychopathy predict sexual recidivism?
No