Security Dilemma Flashcards
Which problem does the security dilemma represent?
One can never be fully clear of the capabilities and intentions of the enemy
From which theory does the security dilemma originate?
Realism
3 ways of accumulating power
- Armament
- Territorial aggrandisement
- Alliance formation
Three “supergames” of international security
- Armament games
- Adversary Games
- Alliance games
Example of Armament games
The cold war
Example of Adversary game
China vs the US
Example of alliance game
NATO vs Warsaw
What are the two phases in an alliance game?
- Primary phase: alliance formation
2. Secondary phase: after alliances are formed
What are the two options that states have in an alliance game?
- Form an alliance
2. Abstain
What are the costs created by alliances?
reduced freedom of action, entrapment in the commitment to defend the interest of others
What are two reasons for the formation of alliances?
- States are not satisfied with moderate security
2. Fearing that others will form alliances. Therefore, once an alliance is formed, another will also form
What is the best scenario in an alliance game?
Forming an alliance while the others do not
What can the alliance game model predict, and what can it not predict?
It will predict the formation of alliances, but cannot predict which states will form them
How is the formation of alliances decided
through bargaining and competition through offering attractive shares
What are the two types of interests in the creation of alliances?
- General: reality of an anarchic system and the geographic position of the state
ex defend a close neighbor to preserve the balance of power
- Particular: specific areas of agreement or disagreement
Is it internal politics or ideology that will have the largest impact on who we ally with?
internal politics. states will rather choose an ally due to geographical location or natural resources rather than a shared ideology.
In a multipolar world, what will be the incentive of a state as seen in the prisoner’s dilemma?
to ally with some other states. This is why realist authors such as Busan and Walt say that a bipolar world is more stable than a multipolar.
what is a proto-partner?
A possible future ally
What are the traditional labels of alliances?
- Cooperate= strong alliance
2. Defect=Weak alliance
What are the consequences depending on the combination of C/D in the prisoner’s dilemma?
- Bad
- entrapment
abandonment - Good
- Reduction in the risk of being entrapped by an ally
What does Jervis say about alliances in a multipolar world?
In a multipolar world, alliances are never absolutely firm.
An example of entrapment
US in NATO. NATO allies are often entrapped by the decisions of the US not to invade countries. The benefits of being in an alliance with the US must therefore outweigh the consequences
How is the status quo important in the security dilemma?
States cannot always be sure if an adversary increases military capabilities with expansionist intentions, or with the aim of protecting the status quo.
What is the insecurity spiral of the security dilemma?
One will always believe that the other is increasing their power tools and one must therefore always increase one’s own.
What can a conciliatory policy do in terms of alliances?
find a common point on how they will work inside the alliance to avoid internal tensions
In an alliance security dilemma where C is an alliance that supports and strengthens commitment while D is an adversary that stands firm, what are the “goods” and “bads” of the two?
Alliance C
Goods
- Reassure ally and reduce the risk of abandonment
- Enhance reputation for loyalty
Bads
- Increase the risk of entrapment
- Reduce the bargaining power over an ally
- Foreclose any realignment option
- Solidify adversary’s alliance
Adversary D
Goods
- Deter, or prevail over, adversary
- enhance the reputation for resolve
Bads
-Provoke adversary; increase tension; insecurity spiral
What must actors evaluate in an alliance game?
trade-offs, benefits, costs and risks
What are the 4 determinants of a choice to ally?
- Dependence of the partners
- Strategic interest: keep the ally’s power resources out of reach of the opponents hands
- Asymmetries: indirect dependence affects the relative fears of abandonment
- The degree to which allies share interests in the conflict with the adversary. If they are different they might risk entrapments or being abandoned
In a restrain allies dilemma, what is the best outcome?
Secretly protect one’s ally while the other restrains their own.
What is a weakness of the alliance security dilemma and why?
A bipolar system as you either have to cooperate with your ally or become isolated
What is an example of contradictory policies within NATO?
Some European states were afraid to be abandoned by the US after WWII. At the same time, they became entrapped by them during the cold war.
What does the Stag Hunt by Jervis represent?
It represents that inside an alliance, members will be better off if all make the same decisions as one actor can do no better than what he expects the other to do. The equilibria is, therefore, C,C, and D, D
What is the main difference between the Prisoners Dilemma and the Stag Hunt
In a prisoners dilemma the only equilibria is D,D as it would make sense to defect if the other cooperates. Therefore, a player would never choose to cooperate as he does not know what the other will choose.
In a Stag Hunt, both C,C and D,D will be the equilibria as both actors will choose the same as what he believes the other will choose.
What increases the possibilities of cooperation?
Anything that increases incentives to cooperate, such as mutual gains, or something that decreases the costs that an actor will pay if he cooperates and the other does not.
Anything that decreases the incentive to defect and increase the mutual cost of not cooperating.
What is the ultimate cost of CD?
The loss of sovereignty
Why will the security dilemma remain even when states gain and increase their power?
Security provides a base form which it can exploit others
Why is cooperation more attractive?
Due to the costs of defecting
When can we say that the offensive has an advantage?
They will have the advantage of the first strike, and if they will be stronger at attacking than defending themselves from an attack
When can we say that the defense has an advantage?
If it is easier to protect and hold one’s own territory than to move forward and take lan.
How will a great offensive advantage impact the defense?
If the offense has a large advantage, a strong defense will be to expensive
How will a great defensive advantage impact the offense?
It will deter a state from attacking as the costs will be to big
What is the situation if the offense has the advantage and the defensive posture cannot be distinguished from a defensive one?
Doubly dangerous
What is the situation if the offense has the advantage and the defensive posture is distinguishable from a defensive one?
There will be no security dilemma, but aggression is still possible. The offense has an advantage, and status quo states might respond in a different way than the aggressor.
What is the situation when the defense has an advantage and the defensive posture cannot be distinguished from a defensive one?
There is a security dilemma as both will increase their defensive powers as they are uncertain wether the other will use their power for offensive measures, or just for obtaining a defensive advantage
What is the situation when the defense has an advantage and the defensive posture is distinguishable from a defensive one?
It will be doubly stable as the other won’t attack as we already know that the defence has an advantage.
