Secret Sauce Flashcards
Ordinary annuity
Cash flows occur at the end of each compounding period
Annuity due
Cash flows occur at the beginning of each period
Which return best measure manager’s performance?
Time-weighted return
Kurtosis of normal distribution
3
Excess kurtosis
Kurtosis excess of that of normal distribution (3)
Leptokurtic
Positive excess kurtosis, more peaked at center
Platykurtic
Negative excess kurtosis, flatter
Total probability rule
P(Y) = P(Y|X) * P(X) + P(Y|Xc) * P(Xc)
Probability of r successes in n trials of binomial distribution, with each independent trial has p probability of success
nCr * p^r * (1-p)^(n-r)
Continuously compounded returns
Increase compounding periods to infinity.
CCRS = ln(1 + HPR)
Historical simulation
Randomly selecting changes in prices or risk factors from historical past changes.
Result have limitations since future changes may not be necessarily be distributed as past changes are
Monte Carlo simulation
Making assumptions about distributions of prices or risk factors and using a large number of random numbers for the risk factors to generate a distribution of possible outcomes.
Can only be as accurate as the assumption about the distribution and correlation
Stratified random sampling
Take a random sample from each group
Student’s t-distribution
Apply for small samples (n<30)
DOF, (n-1) defines the distribution
t-distribution is fatter tail than normal distribution
Bar chart
Vertical lines from high to low price. Mark on the left of the line indicates opening price, mark on the right indicates closing price
Candlestick chart
Bar char that draw a box from opening price to closing price. Box is empty is close is higher than open, filled if close is lower than open
Change in polarity principle
Breached support levels become resistance levels, and breached resistance levels become support levels
Overbought and oversold market
Overbought, prices have increased too rapidly and are likely to decrease in the near term
Oversold, prices have decreased too rapidly and are likely to increase in the near term
Short interest ratio
High short interest ratio indicates bearish market
Kondratieff wave
54 year cycle
Elliott wave theory
In an uptrend the upward moves in prices consist of five waves and downward moves occur in three waves.
Vice versa for downtrend
Factor market
markets for factors of production
Substitution effect
It is the change in consumption due tot he change in relative prices. It is always positive. Shifts along the indifference curve
Income effect
Might be positive of negative depending on whether the good is a normal good or inferior good. Move to another indifference curve
Giffen good
Decrease in price results in a decrease of quantity demanded
Economic rent
Payment to a factor of production in excess of the amount necessary to retain it in its current use.
Payment for land is all economic profit because land is totally fixed.
If a supply is perfectly elastic, then there is no economic rent
Profit maximization
Produce at MP1/P1 = MP2/P2
Or MRP1/P1 = 1
Is it possible that monopoly have zero economic profit?
Yes, maybe they need to spend to preserve monopoly
Limitation on concentration measure
Barriers to entry are not considered
Supply curve for different market structure
For perfect competition, it is MC above AVC or ATC
For monopolistic competition, oligopoly, and monopoly, they do not have well defined supply curves