SCM ch. 4 Flashcards
classical probability
a probability that is determined by dividing the number of possible outcomes of an event by the total number of possible outcomes in the sample space
collectively exhaustive
describes a set of events where at least one of the events must occur during an experiment
complement
all of the outcomes in the sample space that are not part of the event of interest
empirical probability
a probability determined by counting the frequency of an event during an experiment
event
one or more outcomes of an experiment that are a subset of the sample space
experiment
the process of measuring or observing an activity for the purpose of collecting data
law of large numbers
a law that states that when an experiment is conducted a large number of times, the empirical probabilities of the process will converge to the classical probabilities
probability
a numerical value ranging from zero to one that represents the likelihood of a specific event occurring
sample space
a set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
simple event
an event with a single outcome in its most basic form that cannot be simplified
simple probability
the likelihood of a single event occurring
subjective probability
a probability that is calculated based on the experience and intuition of a person (or people). its made when classical and empirical probabilities cannot be calculated
addition rule
a math rule used to calc the prob of the union of events
bayes` theorem
used to calc P(A/B) from info about P(B/A)
conditional prob (of A given B)
the prob of event A occurring given the condition of event B has already occurred
contingency table
shows the number of occurrences of events of an experiment classified by two variables
decision trees
display marginal and joint prob from a contingency table
dependent events
events wherein the occurrence of one event affects the occurrence of another event
independent events
events that have no impact on the prob of each other occurring
intersection (of events A and B)
the number of instances in which event A and B occur at the same time
joint prob
the prob of the intersection of two events
marginal probs
simple probs found in margins, or row and column totals, of a contingency table
multiplication rule
used to determine the prob of the intersection of two events
mutually exclusive events
events that cannot occur at the same time
posterior prob
a prob of an event occurring as determined without any additional info that could affect the event
union (of events A and B)
all of the instances in which either event A or event B or both occur
combinations
the number of different ways in which objects can be arranged without regard to order
fundamental counting principle
this states that if there are k1 choices for the first event, k2 choices for the second event, and kn choices for the nth event, then the total number of possible outcomes are (k1)(k2)(k3)..(kn).
permutations
the number of different ways in which objects can be arranged in order
