Rural Republican Realignment Lecture

Question 1

Focus of Lecture

Answer 1

Remarkable Realignment of Rural Southern Whites
 The backbone of the Solid Democratic South to Stalwart Republicans
 Perhaps the slowest, but deepest realignment among any group
 Has allowed the GOP to retain its edge in the region for the time being

Question 2

Small Towns..

Answer 2

make up majority of the south; 64%
○ But only 15% of the population lives in small towns

Question 3

Tracking Rural Realignment

Answer 3

Historical sketch
 Split-level realignment
□ Seeing a change in presidential voting before state-level voting patterns
 Urban Republicanism (Beginning in the 1950s)
 Rural Republican (1990s-now)

Question 4

Surveying White Southerner

Answer 4

 Online Survey of the Eleven-State South
 3,010 White, non-Hispanic Registrants
 Half from STS Counties and half from Urban Counties
 January 31-Feburary 10, 2020

Question 5

Results of survey

Answer 5

□ STS (small-town-South) are older, less wealthy, and have fewer college degrees

Question 6

cultural distinctions

Answer 6

□ Religion
 More born-again Christians in STS
 More church attendance
□ Gun ownership
 More gun ownership in STS
□ Self-identification
□ Racial conservatism
 The mean for racial resentment is about equal for Urban and STS

Question 7

Political Difference

Answer 7

□ Ideology
 More Republicans and Conservatives in STS
□ Party ID
□ Trump approval
 More Trump approval in STS

Question 8

Issues

Answer 8

□ Abortion
 Abortion should be outlawed; more approval in STS
□ Confederate symbols
 Leave confederate monuments in place/is the confederate flag a symbol of pride; more approval
in STS □ Immigration
 Takes jobs from Americans/Build a Wall; more approval in STS □ Gun control

Question 9

Urban v Rural White Southerners (possible test question)

Answer 9

 Rural White Southerners
□ Are more culturally conservative
□ Are more populist in nature
□ Moore religious
□ Have lower SES (Social Economic Standing)
□ Protectionist in economic policies

Question 10

Too little, too late

Answer 10

○ Rural is strongly Republican, Urban is strongly Democratic, the fight happens in the suburbs
○ Relative size of the rural white electorate is declining
 Both in nominal terms and in comparison to urban areas
○ Rural areas are shrinking
 The importation of democratic voters into the Urban South ○ Peeking around the corner
 The Trump Factor
□ Mobilized rural voters
□ Will the voters be de-mobilized as time passes?
 Growth vs Stagnant States
 GOP Strategies to Remain Viable
□ Thinking about reaching across racial lines and being more moderate  Dems strategies to remain viable
□ Focusing on the suburban South
□ Mobilizing minorities
□ Increase margins in rural areas