Royal society of statistics Flashcards
1
Q
Likelihood ratio
A
Pr (E / Hp, I) / (E / Hd, I)
2
Q
Likelihood results
A
LR > 1 supports prosecution
LR = 1 neutral
LR < 1 supports defence
3
Q
transposing the conditional
A
must address the probability of evidence given the proposition/ defence hypothesis and background info
NOT the other way around
4
Q
Bayes theorem
A
used to find the probability of an event based on the circumstances relevant to the event (Information)
the magnitude of the 2 probabilities determines their weightings
5
Q
Prosecutors fallacy
A
an error caused by transposing the conditional
posterior odds = LR x prior odds
the court = the scientist x other info
6
Q
Law of progressive change
A
everything changes with the progression of time (aka the scene)
